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stock split, stock recommendation
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Good movers: ACH; AH; ANST; BPO; CRM; EAT; HMSY; NX; RIO; STLD
New Plays:
New Pre-Split Plays:
Play Date: 02/13/2007
BPO (Brookfield Properties--$46.81; +0.94; no options): Property management.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bpo.html
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. Strong surge in January made us a some nice coin, and now that it is testing that surge, coming back to near support at the 18 day EMA (45.63). It sold back after earnings but held this support and bounced on a strong volume shot Tuesday. Looking to capture what we can on this rebound move, a rebound with some heavy buying behind it.
Volume: 1.359M Avg Volume: 911.269K
BUY POINT: $47.05 Volume=1.1M Target=$53.95 Stop=$45.55
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bpo.html
New Post Split Plays:
Play Date: 02/13/2007
GGB (Gerdau--$18.17; +1.09; optionable): Steel & iron
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/ggb.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-7-07
STATUS: Breakout test. GGB blasted higher to start February, moving out of a 9 month base, touching a new high on the move. It retreated last week, holding near support at the 18 day EMA (17.00) on the Monday low. It held and rebounded Tuesday, and it was quite impressive with a tremendous volume surge to go along with price. Ready for a new all-time high. Split its stock last April and likes to do so frequently. Thus if we can get into it and hold it, letting it split for us several times we have a lot of shares we can use to write covered calls against when it hits its peaks, then buying them back later. We did this with LUV back in the 1990's and turned 1,000 shares into almost 11,000 shares to write calls against. With that many if you make 0.50 per option each time you make a wad of cash just 'renting' out your stock. Ready to move in as GGB continues higher.
Volume: 3.39M Avg Volume: 1.373M
BUY POINT: $18.32 Volume=1.4M Target=$21.98 Stop=$17.22
POSITION: GGB FW - June $17.50c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ggb.html
Play Date: 02/13/2007
TROW (T Rowe Price Group--$48.97; +0.40; optionable): Asset management
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/trow.html
EARNINGS: Reported 1-26-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Solid volume last week as TROW broke to a new all-time high, moving out of a 16 week cup with handle base formed roughly around the 50 day EMA (47.04). Great volume on the way up last week, nice low volume on this test, holding near support at the 18 day EMA (48.31). Just going to be patient and let it make the rebound on another good boost of volume.
Volume: 1.037M Avg Volume: 1.092M
BUY POINT: $49.55 Volume=1.2M Target=$56.98 Stop=$47.95
POSITION: RQW GJ - July $50c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/trow.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We consider many stocks for pre-announcement plays every week. We get information regarding upcoming announcements and other data that leads us to conclude a split announcement is coming. Even then, however, we have to be discriminating. We have to see a strong technical pattern as well, and thus we reject many potential candidates based on a weak technical position. Some we consider have announced, but have not fared well given their technical patterns were weak to begin with.
The key today is to find stocks in strong patterns or that are ready to rebound off support. A split announcement will amplify the move higher in these cases as we enjoy moves from strong leaders in position to run higher. We won't chase a stock in a poor technical position even if we know it is going to split; it simply won't do us any good, i.e. it won't make us any money to the upside. We could list all stocks we think are going to split, but again, that won't make us any money unless we are in an office pool as to what stocks will or won't announce a stock split.
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern and of course the strong earnings growth that put it in the pattern in the first place.
BA: Researching the date
BIDU: Earnings 2-14-07 after the close. Very ugly before earnings.
BNI: Researching date. Nice break higher off the 18 day EMA
CEPH: Forecast 2-12-07. No split but a nice jump off the 50 day EMA
CHTT: Forecast 2-12-07 before the open. Never gave the entry and fell to the 50 day EMA.
CLB: Forecast 2-15-07
CLE: Tentatively forecast 3-15-07
GENZ: Tentatively set for 2-14-07
GES: Forecast 2-14-07
GPRO: Tentatively forecast 2-13-07. Gapped higher on its results but could not hold much of the move.
JCI: Another stock that announced a dividend versus a split and it is running higher again after a quick test of the 10 day EMA
JCP: Forecast 2-22-07
KSS: Forecast 3-1-07. Sweet run underway
MER: Researching date
POT: Researching date
RIMM: Researching date
RL: No split announcement last week.
VIVO: Forecast mid-February
WCN: Forecast 2-12-07. Announced its split and gapped higher
XTO: Forecast 2-13-07. No split today with its earnings.
NEW PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 02/13/2007
COG (Cabot Oil & Gas--$65.99; +1.80; optionable): Oil and gas. Forecast 2-15-07 with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split on 2-28-05 at $55.80.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cog.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Familiar pattern among some oil stocks. COG is working laterally over the 18 day EMA (63.87) forming the right shoulder to a 9 week base, setting up for the breakout to a new all-time high. It is due to report earnings on Thursday but has not provided a time. now it may announce later in the month, but we like the pattern and we are looking to move in ahead of the earnings and then again on a break higher.
Volume: 446.95K Avg Volume: 555.444K
BUY POINT: $66.89 Volume=833K Target=$76.95 Stop=$63.75
POSITION: COG GM - July $65c (60 delta, low OI) or COG GN - July $70c (48 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cog.html
Play Date: 02/13/2007
VIVO (Meridian Biosciences--$28.95; -0.03; optionable): Diagnostic substances
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split on 8-15-05 at $25.60
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vivo.html
EARNINGS: Reported 1-18-07
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. VIVO is making a nice, orderly test of its strong January run as it broke out from a 9 month cup with handle base. Strong move up to 30 on the high, taking VIVO to a new all-time high. Excellent volume on the run higher and nice low volume on the test. Going to be patient, let it finish the test and then pick it up as it rallies up off the 18 day EMA and through the 10 day EMA (29.12).
Volume: 137.923K Avg Volume: 182.644K
BUY POINT: $29.21 Volume=275K Target=$34.95 Stop=$28.48
POSITION: ZUG GF - July $30c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/vivo.html
CONTINUING PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 02/10/2007
FFIV (F5 Networks--$73.72; -0.01; optionable): Networking solutions
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/ffiv.html
EARNINGS: Released 1-24-07
STATUS: Test breakout. Nice doji at the 50 day EMA (73.06) as FFIV tries to make a higher low at that key level. Looking for it to provide a good volume push off this level for us to enter. To recap: FFIV enjoyed a strong move off the August low, rallying to 80 and giving us a very nice gain. It has faded back the past month, coming back to near the 90 day MA (69.59) and then rebounding to start February. The test held the breakout from the 8 month base and thus set it up for a continued move higher. Strong volume Wednesday as FFIV jumped higher and back through the 50 day EMA (73). Took a breather to end the week, and if FFIV continues the break higher on strong volume we will be starting into some positions once more.
Volume: 485.576K Avg Volume: 1.027M
BUY POINT: $75.95 Volume=1.2M Target=$84.95 Stop=$73.88
POSITION: FLK GO - July $75c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ffiv.html
Play Date: 01/27/2007
GES (Guess? Inc.--$74.94; +0.93; optionable): Apparel. Forecast 2-15-07 after the close.
BACKGROUND: No splits in GES' history.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/ges.html
EARNINGS: 2-14-07
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. Gapped higher Tuesday on some above average volume, trying to put together a breakout move. Earnings after the close Thursday, so there is some room to work with. If GES continues higher we are willing to take some positions as it continues the move. To recap: Working laterally on below average volume above the 18 day EMA (72.50) as GES tests the January breakout from a shallow 8 week cup. Volume has dried up as it moves laterally in a very narrow range. Just waiting for the break higher on rising trade.
Volume: 837.321K Avg Volume: 772.426K
BUY POINT: New: $75.12 (orig. $72.48) Volume=1M Target=$83.45 Stop=$70.38
POSITION: GES FO - June $75c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ges.html
Play Date: 02/10/2007
PX (Praxair--$64.06; +0.39; optionable): Industrial gas, e.g. oxygen, nitrogen, argon, helium, hydrogen
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 10-29-03 at $66
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/px.html
EARNINGS: Released 1-24-07
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Continuing higher Tuesday on rising but below average volume. Looking for a bit more of a breakaway move and we are in. To recap: Strong volume Friday as PX readies for the breakout from its 11 week accumulation base that is setting up to break PX out to a new all-time high. Excellent 4 to 1 accumulation in the pattern (4 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price weeks on rising volume) shows almost all buying as it sets up for a new high. PX raised its prices last week; with no slowing in the industrial sectors of the economy this means more money for PX. Excellent set up, and also getting back up near its split price as well.
Volume: 1.24M Avg Volume: 1.416M
BUY POINT: New: $64.32 (orig. $63.92) Volume=1.6M Target=$71.95 Stop=$62.24
POSITION: PX GL - July $60c (69 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/px.html
Play Date: 02/10/2007
VIP (Vimple Communication--$86.08; +1.28; optionable): Russian wireless telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vip.html
EARNINGS: Late February
STATUS: Test breakout. Nice hold at the 18 day EMA (84.73), bouncing Tuesday on some very strong, above average volume. Looks very solid for a rebound to follow that money flow higher. To recap: VIP is testing the 18 day EMA after a strong late January move, working laterally as it holds this key support following that earlier breakout run. If it can hold here that shows it has the backing to continue the breakout from its 7 week double bottom base and move further into all-time high territory.
Volume: 980.882K Avg Volume: 777.377K
BUY POINT: $86.88 Volume=1M Target=$99.95 Stop=$84.35
POSITION: VIQ GQ - July $85c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/vip.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 02/08/2007
ZUMZ (Zumiez--$35.25; -0.27; optionable): Apparel stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/z/zumz.html
EARNINGS: 3-14-07
STATUS: Ascending base. After surging to end last week but not able to hold all of the move Friday. This week it has faded a bit more, coming back to the 10 day EMA (35.00) on very, very low volume. Nice test, looking for a rebound on some volume. To recap: Strong volume last Thursday as ZUMZ broke higher, clearing the January peak as it made the move. Solid same store sales helped drive it higher but could not hold all of the move into the weekend. Excellent fundamentals growth rates to go along with its technical pattern.
Volume: 182.463K Avg Volume: 572.215K
BUY POINT: $36.05 Volume=800K Target=$42.95 Stop=$34.21
POSITION: QUY EG - May $35c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/zumz.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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stock split
stock recommendation
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