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stock split, stock recommendation
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Good movers: BA; GES; IIVI; JCP; POT; TALX
New Plays:
New Post Split Plays:
Play Date: 02/15/2007
CHL (China Mobile--$48.36; +0.60; optionable): China wireless telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/chl.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Broke out in late January from a 10 week reverse head and shoulders base, rallying over 50 on that move. It is testing that move, working laterally over the 18 day EMA (47.40), making a higher low there the past week. Showed great volume Wednesday as it rebounded. Looking solid and just going to be patient and let it show us a breakout over the short downtrend from January.
Volume: 1.787M Avg Volume: 1.712M
BUY POINT: $49.95 Volume=2M Target=$57.95 Stop=$47.22
POSITION: CHL FI - June $45c (68 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/chl.html
Play Date: 02/15/2007
LOGI (Logitech Intl.--$29.12; +0.44; optionable): PC peripherals (webcams, mice, etc.)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/logi.html
EARNINGS: Announced 1-17-07
STATUS: Flat base. LOGI is coming off the bottom of a 12 week flat base formed over the rising 50 day EMA (28.29). This base consolidates a nice October to December run following the breakout from a 10 month base in October. Volume has started to rise as it moves off the 50 day and heads toward a breakout. Strong money flow is leading higher. Want to see this volume continue higher and surge as LOGI makes its move.
Volume: 558.603K Avg Volume: 723.814K
BUY POINT: $29.22 Volume=1.1M Target=$35.42 Stop=$27.78
POSITION: LQG FF - June $30c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/logi.html
Play Date: 02/15/2007
RS (Reliance Steel--$44.57; +1.47; optionable): Metal fabrication
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rs.html
EARNINGS: 2-15-07
STATUS: Cup w/handle breakout. Gapped higher on strong volume today as it reported strong earnings, breaking out of its 9 month base. Metals are incredibly hot, and RS is starting its run towards the high in the pattern at 50. That is our initial target, kind of a nice trade. If it blasts on through we let it.
Volume: 2.644M Avg Volume: 1.07M
BUY POINT: $44.82 Volume=1.1M Target=$50.00 Stop=$42.68
POSITION: RS FI - June $45c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/rs.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We consider many stocks for pre-announcement plays every week. We get information regarding upcoming announcements and other data that leads us to conclude a split announcement is coming. Even then, however, we have to be discriminating. We have to see a strong technical pattern as well, and thus we reject many potential candidates based on a weak technical position. Some we consider have announced, but have not fared well given their technical patterns were weak to begin with.
The key today is to find stocks in strong patterns or that are ready to rebound off support. A split announcement will amplify the move higher in these cases as we enjoy moves from strong leaders in position to run higher. We won't chase a stock in a poor technical position even if we know it is going to split; it simply won't do us any good, i.e. it won't make us any money to the upside. We could list all stocks we think are going to split, but again, that won't make us any money unless we are in an office pool as to what stocks will or won't announce a stock split.
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern and of course the strong earnings growth that put it in the pattern in the first place.
BA: Researching the date
BIDU: Earnings 2-14-07 after the close. Never gave us another entry.
BNI: Researching date
CEPH: Forecast 2-12-07. No split but a nice jump off the 50 day EMA
CLB: Forecast 2-15-07. No announcement. Gapped higher but then was up and down, basically all over the map.
CLE: Tentatively forecast 3-15-07
COG: Forecast 2-15-07. No earnings after hours.
GENZ: Tentatively set for 2-14-07. No announcement but trying to break higher.
GES: Forecast 2-14-07. Announced the split and soared higher.
JCI: Another stock that announced a dividend versus a split and it is running higher again after a quick test of the 10 day EMA
JCP: Forecast 2-22-07
KSS: Forecast 3-1-07
MER: Researching date
POT: Researching date
RIMM: Researching date
VIVO: Forecast mid-February
NEW PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 02/15/2007
CEPH (Cephalon--$75.22; -0.10; optionable): Drugs.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ceph.html
STATUS: Test breakout. Gapped higher on the earnings on 2-13, breaking out from a 12 week cup with handle pattern. Nice break higher and a modest test the past two sessions on lower trade. Solid action and looking for a rebound to continue the breakout and give us an entry point.
Volume: 1.978M Avg Volume: 1.409M
BUY POINT: $75.95 Volume=2.3M Target=$88.75 Stop=$73.44
POSITION: CQE EO - May $75c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ceph.html
Play Date: 02/15/2007
RL (Ralph Lauren--$85.30; +1.47; optionable): Apparel
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rl.html
STATUS: Ascending base. Looking at RL again as it nears the breakout from its 11 week ascending base formed using the 50 day EMA (80.48) as support. Nice price move Thursday, but waiting for the volume to pick back up as it does.
Volume: 607.4K Avg Volume: 871.374K
BUY POINT: $85.55 Volume=1.2M Target=$96.45 Stop=$82.88
POSITION: RL GQ - July $85c (57 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/rl.html
New buy point on current position:
Play Date: 02/15/2007
KSS (Kohls--$73.58; +0.55; optionable): Department stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/kss.html
EARNINGS: 3-1-07
STATUS: Cup w/handle. KSS is setting up for the next breakout after forming a nice 15 week base. Working on the handle right now on low volume, the calm before the storm. A high volume break higher is what we are looking for.
Volume: 1.277M Avg Volume: 2.936M
BUY POINT: $74.32 Volume=4.4M Target=$84.95 Stop=$71.94
POSITION: KSS GO - July $75c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/kss.html
CONTINUING PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 02/10/2007
FFIV (F5 Networks--$74.21; +0.46; optionable): Networking solutions
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/ffiv.html
EARNINGS: Released 1-24-07
STATUS: Test breakout. Nice brace of dojis at the 50 day EMA (73.13), looking for that break higher. Just needs to show some volume as it makes the break higher. To recap: FFIV enjoyed a strong move off the August low, rallying to 80 and giving us a very nice gain. It has faded back the past month, coming back to near the 90 day MA (69.59) and then rebounding to start February. The test held the breakout from the 8 month base and thus set it up for a continued move higher. Strong volume Wednesday as FFIV jumped higher and back through the 50 day EMA (73). Took a breather to end the week, and if FFIV continues the break higher on strong volume we will be starting into some positions once more.
Volume: 707.136K Avg Volume: 1.021M
BUY POINT: $75.95 Volume=1.2M Target=$84.95 Stop=$73.88
POSITION: FLK GO - July $75c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ffiv.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 02/07/2007
RESP (Respironics--$42.02; +0.62; optionable): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/resp.html
STATUS: Test breakout. Nice fade to the 18 day EMA (41.40) and then a break higher Thursday. Excellent test of that strong late January breakout move. Just looking for some volume on the way up to enter the play.
Volume: 291.198K Avg Volume: 337.811K
BUY POINT: $42.48 Volume=400K Target=$48.85 Stop=$41.11
POSITION: RBQ GH - July $40c (67 delta, 88 OI). &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/resp.html
Play Date: 02/08/2007
ZUMZ (Zumiez--$34.89; -0.17; optionable): Apparel stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/z/zumz.html
EARNINGS: 3-14-07
STATUS: Ascending base. Still in the excellent breakout test, holding above the 18 day EMA on low, below average volume. Just being patient and letting it show us the break higher. To recap: Strong volume last Thursday as ZUMZ broke higher, clearing the January peak as it made the move. Solid same store sales helped drive it higher but could not hold all of the move into the weekend. Excellent fundamentals growth rates to go along with its technical pattern.
Volume: 221.074K Avg Volume: 567.692K
BUY POINT: $36.05 Volume=800K Target=$42.95 Stop=$34.21
POSITION: QUY EG - May $35c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/zumz.html
CONTINUIING LEADER:
Play Date: 02/14/2007
MSTR (Microstrategy--$126.40; +0.40; optionable): Business intelligence software.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mstr.html
EARNINGS: 1-26-07
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Posted a modest gain Thursday but volume faded back well below average. Just waiting for the volume to kick back in as it makes the break. To recap: Strong volume Wednesday as MSTR knocks at the breakout to a 5+ year new high. It held up after a rocky earnings announcement that saw it gap higher on the news but then reverse intraday. It contained the selling that session, and continued working on the cup portion of its base. Nice low volume test the past week held the 18 day EMA (123.30) and formed the bottom of the handle. Great volume today as it jumped off that support. Looking to move in as MSTR continues through the buy point on continued strong volume. A move to the target lands a 70%ish gain.
Volume: 174.119K Avg Volume: 256.123K
BUY POINT: $126.78 Volume=385K Target=$142.95 Stop=$123.11
POSITION: EOW GE - July $125c (60 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mstr.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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stock split
stock recommendation
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