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stock recommendation, stock investment information
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: ANST; CROX; POT; PTNR; RIMM; SIMO
Thursday night play results:
CHL: Modest gain, still set up for the break higher
GLW: Faded below the 200 day SMA again but still holding the pullback.
RS: Continued the move higher
RVSN: Still making the nice breakout test.
KSS: Started higher toward the next breakout but no volume yet.
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 02/17/2007
EXC (Exelon--$63.19; +0.37; optionable): Utilities holding company.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/exc.html
EARNINGS: 1-24-07
STATUS: Test double bottom breakout. EXC broke sharply higher the first week of February, gapping over the 'hump' in its 14 week double bottom base that formed using the 200 day SMA (59.46) as support for the two bottoms. A strong winter storm and usage records helped give EXC the leverage for the breakout to a new all-time high. It rallied just over 64 on the move and spent last week testing the breakout, coming back to tap the 18 day EMA (62.31) that also marks the 'hump' in the middle of the pattern. It touched that level intraday and then rebounded to close positive; looks as if the test is just about over. After this rebound we are looking for volume to come back in and drive it higher. That is our entry point.
Volume: 2.042M Avg Volume: 2.751M
BUY POINT: $63.72 Volume=3.3M Target=$71.95 Stop=$61.92
POSITION: EXC GL - July $60c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/exc.html
Play Date: 02/17/2007
HOLX (Hologic--$56.26; +0.26; optionable): Medical appliances (mammogram equipment)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/holx.html
EARNINGS: Announced 1-31-07
STATUS: Breakout test. HOLX surged higher to end January, breaking out from a 10 month base on a tremendous volume surge as it reported strong results and upped its 2007 guidance. It peaked on that run and spent the past two weeks testing, bouncing off the 18 day EMA (53.89) last week. Volume was strong Wednesday (as it was on NASDAQ in general) but faded as HOLX approached the early February high. It may test back a bit more here toward the 10 day EMA (54.95) and then show us the breakout. Whether it tests from here or continues higher on volume, we want to be ready to get onto this strong stock.
Volume: 823.371K Avg Volume: 1.061M
BUY POINT: $57.11 Volume=1.2M Target=$67.95 Stop=$54.69
POSITION: QHX FK - June $55c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/holx.html
Play Date: 02/17/2007
NTGR (Netgear--$28.32; +1.48; optionable): Telecom and networking equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/ntgr.html
EARNINGS: Reported 2-15-07
STATUS: Double bottom breakout. We were looking at NTGR as a downside play as it cracked below its 90 day MA early last week, but it held and announced strong earnings, bouncing on rising volume Thursday and Friday, clearing the middle of the bottom of the short 6 week base. We are looking to take some positions as it continues and then if a test comes we will be ready to add positions when it holds and then rebounds.
Volume: 2.279M Avg Volume: 721.174K
BUY POINT: $28.46 Volume=1.1M Target=$33.95 Stop=$26.90
POSITION: TUD FE - July $25c (75 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ntgr.html
Play Date: 02/17/2007
TIE (Titanium Metals--$35.35; +0.12; optionable): Industrial metals and minerals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tie.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-13-07
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Nice gap higher Wednesday on strong volume gapped TIE over the early February and early July 2006 highs in its 9 month base. The base used strong support at the confluence of the 200, 90, and 50 day MA to bottom and then start rallying this month. Nice rest Thursday and Friday is testing and holding that move, and we are looking to enter as it continues this strong break higher.
Volume: 1.445M Avg Volume: 2.603M
BUY POINT: $36.05 Volume=3.5M Target=$42.95 Stop=$33.89
POSITION: TIE FG - June $35c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/tie.html
Downside:
Play Date: 02/17/2007
LRCX (Lam Research--$45.23; +0.09; optionable): Chip equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lrcx.html
EARNINGS: Reported 1-17-07
STATUS: Put. A strong runner through November, LRCX tried another base through mid-January, but then collapsed on a sharply lowered outlook. It tried to hold the 200 day SMA (now at 46.61) but that gave way in late January. It dumped lower two weeks back, then scratched out a low volume recovery to the 10 day EMA last week. Still under downside distribution pressure and looking for LRCX to turn back over here. A move to the target lands a 40%ish gain.
Volume: 2.319M Avg Volume: 3.7M
BUY POINT: $44.98 Volume=3.8M Target=$42.78 Stop=$45.60
POSITION: LMQ PI - Apr. $45p (-45 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/lrcx.html
Play Date: 02/17/2007
SBUX (Starbucks--$33.01; -0.21; optionable): High-priced caffeine
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sbux.html
STATUS: PUT. Going for the coffee pot again as SBUX has rebounded from the last down leg to start February, moving up to the 10 day EMA (33.34) last week and turning back over Friday. This is part of a continuing downtrend now as SBUX failed to hold the 200 day SMA test in mid-January and made a run lower to start February. That made us some nice coin. It has rebounded and is now ready to run lower once more, following the declining money flow. Ready to move in as it continues lower in its downtrend. A move to the target lands a 40%ish gain.
Volume: 6.845M Avg Volume: 7.532M
BUY POINT: $32.85 Volume=7.6M Target=$31.05 Stop=$33.44
POSITION: SQX PG - Apr. $35p (-68 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/sbux.html
New buy point on current position:
Play Date: 02/17/2007
GIGM (Gigamedia--$12.36; +0.23; optionable): Entertainment software, online games portal
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gigm.html
STATUS: Test breakout. GIGM broke higher two weeks back on strong volume, moving out of an 18 week cup with handle base. It has come back to test the move, holding the 10 day (12.09) on last week's lows. Nice six year high, and setting up to continue the breakout move after this nice, low volume test.
Volume: 736.017K Avg Volume: 1.038M
BUY POINT: $12.58 Volume=1.2M Target=$15.25 Stop=$11.89
POSITION: GBU GV - July $12.50c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/gigm.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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stock recommendation
stock investment information
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