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stock recommendation, stock investment information
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good Movers: ANST; CMG; CROX; ICON; MOS; PTNR; SIMO; XING; QLGC
Thursday night play results:
GLW: Faded below the 200 day SMA again but still holding the pullback.
ICON: Nice price and volume breakout!
RS: Continued the move higher
RVSN: Still making the nice breakout test.
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 02/17/2007
ARO (Aeropostale--$37.71; -0.43; optionable): Teen retail
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aro.html
EARNINGS: 3-11-07
STATUS: Test breakout. ARO announced some strong same store sales results two weeks back. It gapped higher but filled immediately, then continued its move up the 10 day EMA (37.58). This is the second test of the short term moving averages after breaking sharply higher to start 2007, clearing a 3 month flat base that was part of a larger 12 month base. Strong rally is underway, and after this pullback we are looking to move in as ARO drives higher ahead of its earnings release next month.
Volume: 784.3K Avg Volume: 1.355M
BUY POINT: $38.25 Volume=1.8M Target=$45.95 Stop=$36.82
POSITION: ARO GG - July $35c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/aro.html
Play Date: 02/17/2007
HOLX (Hologic--$56.26; +0.26; optionable): Medical appliances (mammogram equipment)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/holx.html
EARNINGS: Announced 1-31-07
STATUS: Breakout test. HOLX surged higher to end January, breaking out from a 10 month base on a tremendous volume surge as it reported strong results and upped its 2007 guidance. It peaked on that run and spent the past two weeks testing, bouncing off the 18 day EMA (53.89) last week. Volume was strong Wednesday (as it was on NASDAQ in general) but faded as HOLX approached the early February high. It may test back a bit more here toward the 10 day EMA (54.95) and then show us the breakout. Whether it tests from here or continues higher on volume, we want to be ready to get onto this strong stock.
Volume: 823.371K Avg Volume: 1.061M
BUY POINT: $57.11 Volume=1.2M Target=$67.95 Stop=$54.69
POSITION: QHX FK - June $55c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/holx.html
Play Date: 02/17/2007
NTGR (Netgear--$28.32; +1.48; optionable): Telecom and networking equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/ntgr.html
EARNINGS: Reported 2-15-07
STATUS: Double bottom breakout. We were looking at NTGR as a downside play as it cracked below its 90 day MA early last week, but it held and announced strong earnings, bouncing on rising volume Thursday and Friday, clearing the middle of the bottom of the short 6 week base. We are looking to take some positions as it continues and then if a test comes we will be ready to add positions when it holds and then rebounds.
Volume: 2.279M Avg Volume: 721.174K
BUY POINT: $28.46 Volume=1.1M Target=$33.95 Stop=$26.90
POSITION: TUD FE - July $25c (75 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/ntgr.html
New buy point on current position:
Play Date: 02/17/2007
GIGM (Gigamedia--$12.36; +0.23; optionable): Entertainment software, online games portal
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gigm.html
STATUS: Test breakout. GIGM broke higher two weeks back on strong volume, moving out of an 18 week cup with handle base. It has come back to test the move, holding the 10 day (12.09) on last week's lows. Nice six year high, and setting up to continue the breakout move after this nice, low volume test.
Volume: 736.017K Avg Volume: 1.038M
BUY POINT: $12.58 Volume=1.2M Target=$15.25 Stop=$11.89
POSITION: GBU GV - July $12.50c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/gigm.html
Downside:
Play Date: 02/17/2007
LRCX (Lam Research--$45.23; +0.09; optionable): Chip equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lrcx.html
EARNINGS: Reported 1-17-07
STATUS: Put. A strong runner through November, LRCX tried another base through mid-January, but then collapsed on a sharply lowered outlook. It tried to hold the 200 day SMA (now at 46.61) but that gave way in late January. It dumped lower two weeks back, then scratched out a low volume recovery to the 10 day EMA last week. Still under downside distribution pressure and looking for LRCX to turn back over here. A move to the target lands a 40%ish gain.
Volume: 2.319M Avg Volume: 3.7M
BUY POINT: $44.98 Volume=3.8M Target=$42.78 Stop=$45.60
POSITION: LMQ PI - Apr. $45p (-45 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/lrcx.html
Play Date: 02/17/2007
SBUX (Starbucks--$33.01; -0.21; optionable): High-priced caffeine
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sbux.html
STATUS: PUT. Going for the coffee pot again as SBUX has rebounded from the last down leg to start February, moving up to the 10 day EMA (33.34) last week and turning back over Friday. This is part of a continuing downtrend now as SBUX failed to hold the 200 day SMA test in mid-January and made a run lower to start February. That made us some nice coin. It has rebounded and is now ready to run lower once more, following the declining money flow. Ready to move in as it continues lower in its downtrend. A move to the target lands a 40%ish gain.
Volume: 6.845M Avg Volume: 7.532M
BUY POINT: $32.85 Volume=7.6M Target=$31.05 Stop=$33.44
POSITION: SQX PG - Apr. $35p (-68 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/sbux.html
SUBSCRIBER PORTFOLIO: These are stocks subscribers suggest by vote that we put in a portfolio to track and move into the stocks if they perform well. If you have any suggestions for additions or deletions, email us. We don't cover them all each report, just when something interesting is developing.
AAPL, AKAM, CELG, DRIV, GME, GOOG, ISE, MA, MRVL, NVDA, WEBX
AAPL: Continues to work laterally in a tight range on low volume above the 90 day MA. Still being patient and waiting for AAPL to break higher on rising volume.
CELG: Still holding the 90 day MA in a second test of this level, trying to set up a double bottom.
DRIV: Looks as if DRIV is going to work laterally here and form a handle to set up the next big break higher.
GOOG: Fought back up through the 90 day MA on rising, above average volume.
MA: Holding the 10 day MA after bouncing off the 50 day EMA, trying to set up and try to rebound.
MRVL: Strong volume as MRVL rebounds toward the 200 day SMA test for the third time. We will see if the third time is the charm.
NVDA: After the nice rebound to start the month, NVDA turned back down below the 90 day MA on a strong surge of volume.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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stock recommendation
stock investment information
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