|
|
trade stock, stock split
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Good movers: ANST; CROX; FMCN; GES; POT; RIMM
New Plays:
New Post Split Plays:
Play Date: 02/17/2007
TIE (Titanium Metals--$35.35; +0.12; optionable): Industrial metals and minerals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tie.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-13-07
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Nice gap higher Wednesday on strong volume gapped TIE over the early February and early July 2006 highs in its 9 month base. The base used strong support at the confluence of the 200, 90, and 50 day MA to bottom and then start rallying this month. Nice rest Thursday and Friday is testing and holding that move, and we are looking to enter as it continues this strong break higher.
Volume: 1.445M Avg Volume: 2.603M
BUY POINT: $36.05 Volume=3.5M Target=$42.95 Stop=$33.89
POSITION: TIE FG - June $35c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/tie.html
Leader:
Play Date: 02/17/2007
NTGR (Netgear--$28.32; +1.48; optionable): Telecom and networking equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/ntgr.html
EARNINGS: Reported 2-15-07
STATUS: Double bottom breakout. We were looking at NTGR as a downside play as it cracked below its 90 day MA early last week, but it held and announced strong earnings, bouncing on rising volume Thursday and Friday, clearing the middle of the bottom of the short 6 week base. We are looking to take some positions as it continues and then if a test comes we will be ready to add positions when it holds and then rebounds.
Volume: 2.279M Avg Volume: 721.174K
BUY POINT: $28.46 Volume=1.1M Target=$33.95 Stop=$26.90
POSITION: TUD FE - July $25c (75 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ntgr.html
Downside:
Play Date: 02/17/2007
SBUX (Starbucks--$33.01; -0.21; optionable): High-priced caffeine
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sbux.html
STATUS: PUT. Going for the coffee pot again as SBUX has rebounded from the last down leg to start February, moving up to the 10 day EMA (33.34) last week and turning back over Friday. This is part of a continuing downtrend now as SBUX failed to hold the 200 day SMA test in mid-January and made a run lower to start February. That made us some nice coin. It has rebounded and is now ready to run lower once more, following the declining money flow. Ready to move in as it continues lower in its downtrend. A move to the target lands a 40%ish gain.
Volume: 6.845M Avg Volume: 7.532M
BUY POINT: $32.85 Volume=7.6M Target=$31.05 Stop=$33.44
POSITION: SQX PG - Apr. $35p (-68 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/sbux.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We consider many stocks for pre-announcement plays every week. We get information regarding upcoming announcements and other data that leads us to conclude a split announcement is coming. Even then, however, we have to be discriminating. We have to see a strong technical pattern as well, and thus we reject many potential candidates based on a weak technical position. Some we consider have announced, but have not fared well given their technical patterns were weak to begin with.
The key today is to find stocks in strong patterns or that are ready to rebound off support. A split announcement will amplify the move higher in these cases as we enjoy moves from strong leaders in position to run higher. We won't chase a stock in a poor technical position even if we know it is going to split; it simply won't do us any good, i.e. it won't make us any money to the upside. We could list all stocks we think are going to split, but again, that won't make us any money unless we are in an office pool as to what stocks will or won't announce a stock split.
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern and of course the strong earnings growth that put it in the pattern in the first place.
BA: Researching the date
BNI: Earnings were 1-23-07. Researching date.
CEPH: Forecast 2-12-07. No split but a nice jump off the 50 day EMA
CLE: Tentatively forecast 3-15-07
COG: Forecast 2-15-07. No earnings after hours Thursday, but a nice Friday surge.
JCI: Another stock that announced a dividend versus a split and it is running higher again after a quick test of the 10 day EMA
JCP: Forecast 2-22-07
KSS: Forecast 3-1-07
MER: Researching date
POT: Tentatively set for third week in April
RL: Researching date.
RIMM: Tentatively set first week of April
VIVO: Forecast mid-February
NEW PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 02/17/2007
ANSS (Ansys--$51.76; +0.10; optionable): Engineering simulation software
BACKGROUND: Announced a 2:1 split on 8-5-04 at $45.70
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/anss.html
EARNINGS: 2-20-07
STATUS: Double bottom. ANSS is working on the breakout from a 10 month base consolidating a solid 2004 and 2005 run and setting ANSS up for a new all-time high. It has bumped up against 52, the 'hump' in the middle of the double bottom, starting to work laterally to end the week, perhaps the beginnings of a handle forming. Money flow is surging higher ahead of price and at some point ANSS is going to follow it, handle or no. On a break over the recent highs on some strong volume we are ready to move in. Earnings are out Tuesday before the open and we will be looking to move in if it starts higher on the news.
Volume: 340.334K Avg Volume: 320.406K
BUY POINT: $52.32 Volume=481K Target=$59.95 Stop=$49.65
POSITION: QUS GJ - July $50c (64 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/anss.html
Play Date: 02/17/2007
ARO (Aeropostale--$37.71; -0.43; optionable): Teen retail. Forecast 3-11-07.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split on 3-11-04 at $33.30.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aro.html
EARNINGS: 3-11-07
STATUS: Test breakout. ARO announced some strong same store sales results two weeks back. It gapped higher but filled immediately, then continued its move up the 10 day EMA (37.58). This is the second test of the short term moving averages after breaking sharply higher to start 2007, clearing a 3 month flat base that was part of a larger 12 month base. Strong rally is underway, and after this pullback we are looking to move in as ARO drives higher ahead of its earnings release next month.
Volume: 784.3K Avg Volume: 1.355M
BUY POINT: $38.25 Volume=1.8M Target=$45.95 Stop=$36.82
POSITION: ARO GG - July $35c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/aro.html
Play Date: 02/17/2007
EXC (Exelon--$63.19; +0.37; optionable): Utilities holding company.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 1-27-04 at $65.20.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/exc.html
EARNINGS: 1-24-07
STATUS: Test double bottom breakout. EXC broke sharply higher the first week of February, gapping over the 'hump' in its 14 week double bottom base that formed using the 200 day SMA (59.46) as support for the two bottoms. A strong winter storm and usage records helped give EXC the leverage for the breakout to a new all-time high. It rallied just over 64 on the move and spent last week testing the breakout, coming back to tap the 18 day EMA (62.31) that also marks the 'hump' in the middle of the pattern. It touched that level intraday and then rebounded to close positive; looks as if the test is just about over. After this rebound we are looking for volume to come back in and drive it higher. That is our entry point.
Volume: 2.042M Avg Volume: 2.751M
BUY POINT: $63.72 Volume=3.3M Target=$71.95 Stop=$61.92
POSITION: EXC GL - July $60c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/exc.html
Play Date: 02/17/2007
HOLX (Hologic--$56.26; +0.26; optionable): Medical appliances (mammogram equipment)
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 9-23-05 at $56.30.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/holx.html
EARNINGS: Announced 1-31-07
STATUS: Breakout test. HOLX surged higher to end January, breaking out from a 10 month base on a tremendous volume surge as it reported strong results and upped its 2007 guidance. It peaked on that run and spent the past two weeks testing, bouncing off the 18 day EMA (53.89) last week. Volume was strong Wednesday (as it was on NASDAQ in general) but faded as HOLX approached the early February high. It may test back a bit more here toward the 10 day EMA (54.95) and then show us the breakout. Whether it tests from here or continues higher on volume, we want to be ready to get onto this strong stock.
Volume: 823.371K Avg Volume: 1.061M
BUY POINT: $57.11 Volume=1.2M Target=$67.95 Stop=$54.69
POSITION: QHX FK - June $55c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/holx.html
Play Date: 02/17/2007
JWN (Nordstrom--$58.46; -0.26; optionable): Department stores.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 5-24-05 at $59.70.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jwn.html
EARNINGS: 2-26-07 after the close
STATUS: Test uptrend. JWN is extended somewhat, running up the 10 and 18 day EMA. It broke out from an 8 month base in October, and then consolidated for 9 weeks as the 50 day EMA caught up to the move. That sent it higher, continuing the run. It is making the third test of the 10 day (57.48) after that last consolidation. Would like to see a bit more pullback toward the 10 day EMA this week to give us a bit better entry point. If we get it and it bounces we will move in for a run to the earnings & then decide if we want to hold all positions ahead of the earnings and forecast split announcement. If it gets too extended on the run it has more probability of turning down on the news whether it is good or bad.
Volume: 1.483M Avg Volume: 2.44M
BUY POINT: $57.74 Volume=2.8M Target=$66.45 Stop=$56.45
POSITION: JWN GK - July $55c (71 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/jwn.html
CONTINUING PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 02/15/2007
CEPH (Cephalon--$75.51; +0.29; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ceph.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-12-07
STATUS: Test breakout. Excellent test of the Tuesday break higher on the earnings results. Letting it make the test and when it rebounds again on volume we move in. To recap: Gapped higher on the earnings on 2-13, breaking out from a 12 week cup with handle pattern. Nice break higher and a modest test the past two sessions on lower trade. Solid action and looking for a rebound to continue the breakout and give us an entry point.
Volume: 977.907K Avg Volume: 1.409M
BUY POINT: $75.95 Volume=2.3M Target=$88.75 Stop=$73.44
POSITION: CQE EO - May $75c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ceph.html
Play Date: 02/15/2007
KSS (Kohls--$73.82;+0.24; optionable): Department stores. Forecast 3-1-07
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 3-6-00 at $76. Before that two other splits, both in March.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/kss.html
EARNINGS: 3-1-07
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still set up well for the next breakout, though it edged higher Friday on continued below average volume. A solid move over 74 on some decent trade is our buy. To recap: KSS is setting up for the next breakout after forming a nice 15 week base. Working on the handle right now on low volume, the calm before the storm. A high volume break higher is what we are looking for.
Volume: 1.416M Avg Volume: 2.859M
BUY POINT: $74.32 Volume=4.4M Target=$84.95 Stop=$71.94
POSITION: KSS GO - July $75c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/kss.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 02/15/2007
CHL (China Mobile--$48.45; +0.09; optionable): China wireless telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/chl.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Low volume to end the week, but holding above the 10 day EMA (48.01), setting a higher low and putting it in position to continue the breakout move. To recap: Broke out in late January from a 10 week reverse head and shoulders base, rallying over 50 on that move. It is testing that move, working laterally over the 18 day EMA (47.40), making a higher low there the past week. Showed great volume Wednesday as it rebounded. Looking solid and just going to be patient and let it show us a breakout over the short downtrend from January.
Volume: 1.287M Avg Volume: 1.705M
BUY POINT: $49.95 Volume=2M Target=$57.95 Stop=$47.22
POSITION: CHL FI - June $45c (68 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/chl.html
Play Date: 02/07/2007
RESP (Respironics--$42.12; +0.10; optionable): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/resp.html
STATUS: Test breakout. Tapped at the 18 day EMA again on the intraday low and rebounded for a modest gain on basically no volume. Still a beautiful set up for the continued breakout run. To recap: Nice fade to the 18 day EMA last week, holding and bouncing Thursday and Friday. Excellent test of that strong late January breakout move. Just looking for some volume on the way up to enter the play.
Volume: 137.947K Avg Volume: 334.694K
BUY POINT: $42.48 Volume=400K Target=$48.85 Stop=$41.11
POSITION: RBQ GH - July $40c (67 delta, 88 OI). &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/resp.html
Play Date: 02/08/2007
ZUMZ (Zumiez--$35.05; +0.16; optionable): Apparel stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/z/zumz.html
EARNINGS: 3-14-07
STATUS: Ascending base. Ended the week testing the 18 day EMA (34.57) on the intraday lows then rebounding. Very low trade, but that is no problem in this nice test of the break higher. Just going to wait it out and let it show us the break higher. To recap: Strong volume last Thursday as ZUMZ broke higher, clearing the January peak as it made the move. Solid same store sales helped drive it higher but could not hold all of the move into the weekend. Excellent fundamentals growth rates to go along with its technical pattern.
Volume: 164.406K Avg Volume: 560.739K
BUY POINT: $36.05 Volume=800K Target=$42.95 Stop=$34.21
POSITION: QUY EG - May $35c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/zumz.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
|
trade stock
stock split
|
