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trade stock, stock split
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Good movers: AH; ANSS; ANST; ARO; CROX; FMCN; GES; GS; JCP; JWN; POT; RIMM; RL; TIE; VIP
New Plays:
New Pre-Split Plays:
Play Date: 02/20/2007
ACLI (American Commercial Lines--$76.60; +2.35; optionable): Shipping. Splits 2:1 on 2-21-07
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/acli.html
STATUS: Breaking higher into the split, moving out of a 10 week cup with handle base on strong volume Tuesday. Expecting ACLI to run right on through the split and give us a buy point as it does.
Volume: 506.426K Avg Volume: 354.7K
BUY POINT: $38.48 Volume=532K Target=$43.98 Stop=$73.4436.72
POSITION: QAK FG - June $35c (61 delta) or QAK FH - June $40c (48 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/acli.html
New Post Split Plays:
Play Date: 02/20/2007
CSX (CSX Corp.--$40.42; -0.25; optionable): Railroads
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/csx.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Exploded out of a 15 week last Tuesday on strong volume. It rallied for three sessions and is coming back to test, showing a pair of dojis above 40. May come back to test some more, but it is now showing much interest in coming back to the 10 day EMA (39.34). If it does we will let it and pick it up as it turns back up. If it starts back up from here, something it looks as if it will do, we will move in.
Volume: 8.205M Avg Volume: 5.333M
BUY POINT: From the Tuesday close: $40.89 Volume=8M Target=$46.95 Stop=$39.22
POSITION: CSX HH - Aug. $40c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/csx.html
Play Date: 02/20/2007
SWS (SWS Group--$29.39; +1.18; optionable): Investment brokerage
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sws.html
EARNINGS: 5-8-07
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. SWS broke out from a 24 week base in November and rallied up the 18 day EMA (now at 27.56). Big surge in early February on some tremendous earnings. It tested that move the past 1.5 weeks, coming back to the 10 day EMA, showing a doji there Friday. Volume jumped back up to average Tuesday as it bounced off of this support. Looking to squeeze another bounce off this one.
Volume: 344K Avg Volume: 318.843K
BUY POINT: $29.58 Volume=475K Target=$35.95 Stop=$27.51
POSITION: SRJ FX - June $26.38c (68 delta, 70 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/sws.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We consider many stocks for pre-announcement plays every week. We get information regarding upcoming announcements and other data that leads us to conclude a split announcement is coming. Even then, however, we have to be discriminating. We have to see a strong technical pattern as well, and thus we reject many potential candidates based on a weak technical position. Some we consider have announced, but have not fared well given their technical patterns were weak to begin with.
The key today is to find stocks in strong patterns or that are ready to rebound off support. A split announcement will amplify the move higher in these cases as we enjoy moves from strong leaders in position to run higher. We won't chase a stock in a poor technical position even if we know it is going to split; it simply won't do us any good, i.e. it won't make us any money to the upside. We could list all stocks we think are going to split, but again, that won't make us any money unless we are in an office pool as to what stocks will or won't announce a stock split.
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern and of course the strong earnings growth that put it in the pattern in the first place.
BA: Researching the date
BNI: Earnings were 1-23-07. Researching date.
CLE: Tentatively forecast 3-15-07
COG: Forecast 2-15-07. No earnings after hours Thursday, but a nice surge.
JCI: Another stock that announced a dividend versus a split and it is running higher again.
JCP: Forecast 2-22-07
KSS: Forecast 3-1-07
MER: Researching date
POT: Tentatively set for third week in April
RL: Researching date.
RIMM: Tentatively set first week of April
VIVO: Forecast mid-February
NEW PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 02/20/2007
CEC (CEC Entertainment--$43.12; +0.28; no options): Chuckee Cheese
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cec.html
EARNINGS: 3-6-07
STATUS: Breakout test. CEC broke out from a big 19 month double bottom with handle base in late January and is making its second test of that move, coming back to the 18 day EMA (42.26) Friday and Tuesday. It held Tuesday and bounced on a big shot of above average volume. Good test early in the breakout move. Ready to enter as it continues higher.
Volume: 445.7K Avg Volume: 231.459K
BUY POINT: $43.48 Volume=250K Target=$49.95 Stop=$42.11
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cec.html
Play Date: 02/20/2007
FDX (Federal Express--$118.29; +1.24; optionable): Air delivery, etc. If it has to be there, blah, blah, blah.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fdx.html
EARNINGS: 3-21-07
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. FDX is in a big 11 month base, spending the last 3 months forming something of a cup with handle as the right shoulder. It gapped higher last Wednesday on strong volume, tested for two days, and then was starting back up on Tuesday. Volume was rising, but still below average volume. Looking for a continued move on a bit more trade to give us the buy as it moves out of this strong pattern.
Volume: 1.587M Avg Volume: 1.774M
BUY POINT: $119.38 Volume=2.5M Target=$134.95 Stop=$116.21
POSITION: FDX GD - July $120c (52 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/fdx.html
Play Date: 02/20/2007
YUM (Yum! Brands--$62.06; +1.79; optionable): KFC, Pizza Hut, Taco Bell. Likes to announce in May.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/y/yum.html
EARNINGS: 5-1-07
STATUS: Saucer with handle. YUM is breaking higher from a 13 week base that formed using the 90 day MA as support. It is a flat cup, hence the saucer name. Very solid action in the base and now showing the break higher on rising volume. Heading for a new all-time high.
Volume: 1.672M Avg Volume: 1.518M
BUY POINT: $62.24 Volume=2M Target=$71.95 Stop=$60.18
POSITION: YUM GL - July $60c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/yum.html
CONTINUING PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 02/10/2007
FFIV (F5 Networks--$76.03; +2.44; optionable): Networking solutions
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/ffiv.html
EARNINGS: Released 1-24-07
STATUS: Test breakout. Getting some good volume Tuesday, rallying up to average as FFIV posted a good gain off the 50 day EMA. Looks ready. To recap: FFIV enjoyed a strong move off the August low, rallying to 80 and giving us a very nice gain. It has faded back the past month, coming back to near the 90 day MA (69.59) and then rebounding to start February. The test held the breakout from the 8 month base and thus set it up for a continued move higher. Strong volume as FFIV jumped higher and back through the 50 day EMA (73.26) just over a week back. Took a breather on lower volume, and now looks ready to break higher.
Volume: 1.064M Avg Volume: 986.84K
BUY POINT: From here on continued solid trade (orig. $75.95) Volume=1.2M Target=$84.95 Stop=$73.88
POSITION: FLK GO - July $75c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ffiv.html
CONTINUING PRE-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 02/03/2007
APH (Amphenol Corp.--$67.92; +0.94; optionable): Electronics. Splits 2:1 on 4-2-07
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aph.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Getting some solid volume Tuesday as APH heads higher off the 18 day EMA in its 17 week base, setting APH up for a breakout to a new all-time high. Money flow is running higher ahead of price. Just being patient and seeing if this move can carry through to a breakout.
Volume: 794.6K Avg Volume: 703.798K
BUY POINT: $68.65 Volume=1.2M Target=$78.95 Stop=$66.57
POSITION: APH DM - Apr. $65c (68 delta) or APH GN - July $70c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/aph.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 02/14/2007
BKE (Buckle, Inc.--$36.53; +0.35; no options): Apparel stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bke.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Looks ready to move higher after the test of the strong breakout move a week back. Nice tap at the 10 day EMA on the Tuesday low and rebounding for a gain. Low volume for now, but looking for it to return as it continues higher.
Volume: 78.8K Avg Volume: 162.177K
BUY POINT: $36.57 Volume=210K Target=$43.94 Stop=$34.72
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bke.html
Play Date: 02/15/2007
CHL (China Mobile--$49.01; +0.56; optionable): China wireless telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/chl.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Volume surged Tuesday as CHL broke higher. Looks ready on a continued move up from here. To recap: Broke out in late January from a 10 week reverse head and shoulders base, rallying over 50 on that move. It is testing that move, working laterally over the 18 day EMA (47.67), making a higher low there the past week. Showed great volume Wednesday as it rebounded. Looking solid and just going to be patient and let it show us a breakout over the short downtrend from January.
Volume: 2.483M Avg Volume: 1.705M
BUY POINT: New: 49.45 (orig. $49.95) Volume=2M Target=$57.95 Stop=$47.22
POSITION: CHL FI - June $45c (68 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/chl.html
Play Date: 02/07/2007
RESP (Respironics--$42.20; +0.08; optionable): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/resp.html
STATUS: Test breakout. Hit the buy point Tuesday. Volume was up but still below average, and it faded into the close. Looks ready; just has to show it. To recap: Nice fade to the 18 day EMA last week, holding and bouncing Thursday and Friday. Excellent test of that strong late January breakout move. Just looking for some volume on the way up to enter the play.
Volume: 267.228K Avg Volume: 334.694K
BUY POINT: $42.48 Volume=400K Target=$48.85 Stop=$41.11
POSITION: RBQ GH - July $40c (67 delta, 88 OI). &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/resp.html
Play Date: 02/08/2007
ZUMZ (Zumiez--$35.70; +0.65; optionable): Apparel stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/z/zumz.html
EARNINGS: 3-14-07
STATUS: Ascending base. Getting a bit of volume as it comes off the 18 day EMA (34.69) test. Good hold at support and looking for more trade as it rebounds. To recap: Strong volume as ZUMZ broke higher in early February, clearing the January peak as it made the move. Solid same store sales helped drive it higher but could not hold all of the move into the weekend. Excellent fundamentals growth rates to go along with its technical pattern.
Volume: 337.49K Avg Volume: 560.739K
BUY POINT: $36.05 Volume=800K Target=$42.95 Stop=$34.21
POSITION: QUY EG - May $35c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/zumz.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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trade stock
stock split
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