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stock recommendation, stock investment information
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good Movers: DIOD; FALC; GIGM; ICON; TWGP; SBUX
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 02/24/2007
CELG (Celgene--$56.28; +1.41; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/celg.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-1-07
STATUS: Double bottom. Excellent action off of the 90 day EMA that CELG used as support for the two lows in its 9 week base. After a strong run in 2005 through mid-2006 CELG needed some rest and it has formed a couple of bases. Friday it started the breakout from its second, clearing the 'hump' in the middle of the current base on strong, above average volume. Ready to move in as it continues higher and then again when it tests and/or forms a handle for the next breakout. Excellent fundamentals to go along with the strong technical pattern.
Volume: 4.881M Avg Volume: 3.521M
BUY POINT: $56.54 Volume=4M Target=$64.95 Stop=$54.65
POSITION: LQH GK - July $55c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/celg.html
Play Date: 02/24/2007
GRMN (Garmin Ltd.--$57.49; +0.80; optionable): GPS devices
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/grmn.html
EARNINGS: Announce 2-14-07
STATUS: Test breakout. GRMN broke out from a 7.5 month ascending base two weeks back on a strong earnings report; those GPS devices they put out are quite cool. You don't think you need one until you actually use one (sound familiar? PC's, fax machines, cell phones, wirelss - - who would ever need such things?). GRMN is testing that move higher, holding the breakout and refusing to give up any gains. Love a stingy stock. The range is pinching off, narrowing while holding the move. That indicates the next move is approaching. Looking to move in as GRMN makes the next break higher. Strong pattern, strong fundamentals.
Volume: 1.665M Avg Volume: 2.718M
BUY POINT: $58.05 Volume=3M Target=$66.75 Stop=$55.32
POSITION: GQR GK - July $55c (67 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/grmn.html
Play Date: 02/24/2007
ROST (Ross Stores--$34.12; -0.12; optionable): Discount apparel stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rost.html
EARNINGS: 3-21-07
STATUS: Breakout test. ROST cleared a 3 year range to start 2007. It tested and made a second run two weeks back on strong volume, peaking out at 35. It came back to test this week, showing a pair of dojis at the 10 day EMA (33.99) on low, below average volume. Excellent break higher and a very constructive test. Money flow remains strong even on this test. This is just the second fade to test the breakout, and thus there is still plenty of upside ahead of ROST. Volume started higher Friday, and we will look for more volume as it holds and resumes the breakout run.
Volume: 902.929K Avg Volume: 1.3M
BUY POINT: $34.62 Volume=1.5M Target=$39.95 Stop=$33.41
POSITION: REQ HG - Aug. $35c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/rost.html
New buy point on current plays:
Play Date: 01/31/2007
SIMO (Silicon Motion Technology--$21.87; -0.03; optionable): Semiconductors for multimedia consumer electronics
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/simo.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-1-07
STATUS: Breakout test. SIMO is making the second test of the 10 day EMA (21.43) since the early February breakout from a sweet 14 week cup with handle base. Nice surge last week on strong volume continued last week, then testing to end the week. Looking for the next bounce on volume to enter new positions. It can be volatile, but we give it a bit more rope to let it make its moves, and when you look at the trend it is quite pleasing.
Volume: 312.473K Avg Volume: 536.579K
BUY POINT: $19.00 Volume=550K Target=$22.78 Stop=$21.38
POSITION: MQI FT - July $17.50c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/simo.html
Downside:
Play Date: 02/24/2007
MSFT (Microsoft--$28.90; -0.49; optionable): iPod knock-offs, game boxes, buggy software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/msft.html
STATUS: Head and shoulders. After announcing the Vista release MSFT is in the fade mode. It ran from June to January in anticipation and since it has rolled over and started to sell. Volume jumped just over a week back as it gapped below the 90 day MA (29.16). It recovered last week, but could only make it to the 18 day EMA, showing a doji there Thursday. It turned over Friday and sold off through the 90 day MA again with some rising, average volume. Money flow is leading lower and MSFT looks ready to follow. A move to the target lands a 45%ish gain.
Volume: 63.864M Avg Volume: 61.859M
BUY POINT: $28.76 Volume=64M Target=$27.68 Stop=$29.22
POSITION: MQF PK - Apr. $30p (-62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/msft.html
Play Date: 02/24/2007
SAY (Satyam Computer Services--$22.43; -0.81; optionable): Consulting and IT services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/say.html
EARNINGS: Announced 1-19-07
STATUS: Head and shoulders. Volume jumped above average Friday for the first time since early February, coincident with SAY's break down through the 90 day MA (22.75), starting the breakdown from its topping pattern. After a breakout in October and a run higher into mid-January, it peaked and gapped sharply lower. It tried to dance along the 50 day EMA (23.38) since with a couple of taps at the 90 day MA, but it could not attract any volume to push it. When the volume came Friday, it was selling volume. Looking to move in and snatch the downside as it breaks down from this 12 week top. A move to the target lands a 41% gain.
Volume: 1.242M Avg Volume: 923.751K
BUY POINT: $22.31 Volume=1M Target=$21.04 Stop=$22.65
POSITION: SAY PX - Apr. $22.50p (-47 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/say.html
SUBSCRIBER PORTFOLIO: These are stocks subscribers suggest by vote that we put in a portfolio to track and move into the stocks if they perform well. If you have any suggestions for additions or deletions, email us. We don't cover them all each report, just when something interesting is developing.
AAPL, AKAM, CELG, DRIV, GME, GOOG, ISE, MA, MRVL, NVDA, WEBX
AAPL: Ended the week testing back some of the strong break higher. Once it completes this test and starts back up we will look at more positions.
CELG: Strong volume as CELG breaks higher. See the play above.
GOOG: Still not a pattern we feel comfortable with the prior double top and break lower.
ISE: Gapped higher on strong volume, continuing the trend reversal.
MA: Has faded back tot eh 50 day EMA again on very low trade, holding its own after that precipitous drop two weeks back on its earnings results. It has held key support, however.
MRVL: Trying to hold a break over the 200 day SMA.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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stock recommendation
stock investment information
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