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stock recommendation, stock investment information
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: DIOD; EXC; FALC; FDX; GIGM; ICON; RTI; TIE; SBUX
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 02/24/2007
CHAP (Chaparral Steel Company--$51.62; -0.51; optionable): Steel & iron
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/chap.html
EARNINGS: Mid-March
STATUS: Breakout test. CHAP is working more or less laterally this month as it tests the late January breakout from a 7 week cup base that took this relatively young issue (1.5 years) to a new all-time high. Solid volume last Wednesday as CHAP jumped off the 18 day EMA (50.32) shows the buyers are still active after the breakout. Money flow remains strong, and after this nice, low volume test of the Wednesday move we expect CHAP to continue the breakout run. Solid fundamentals to go along with the solid technical pattern.
Volume: 370.752K Avg Volume: 585.839K
BUY POINT: $52.32 Volume=650K Target=$59.95 Stop=$50.11
POSITION: ZHQ GJ - July $50c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/chap.html
Play Date: 02/24/2007
GRMN (Garmin Ltd.--$57.49; +0.80; optionable): GPS devices
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/grmn.html
EARNINGS: Announce 2-14-07
STATUS: Test breakout. GRMN broke out from a 7.5 month ascending base two weeks back on a strong earnings report; those GPS devices they put out are quite cool. You don't think you need one until you actually use one (sound familiar? PC's, fax machines, cell phones, wirelss - - who would ever need such things?). GRMN is testing that move higher, holding the breakout and refusing to give up any gains. Love a stingy stock. The range is pinching off, narrowing while holding the move. That indicates the next move is approaching. Looking to move in as GRMN makes the next break higher. Strong pattern, strong fundamentals.
Volume: 1.665M Avg Volume: 2.718M
BUY POINT: $58.05 Volume=3M Target=$66.75 Stop=$55.32
POSITION: GQR GK - July $55c (67 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/grmn.html
Play Date: 02/24/2007
IFLO (I-Flow--$16.17; -0.26; optionable): Ambulatory drug delivery systems
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/iflo.html
EARNINGS: Reported 2-20-07
STATUS: Cup w/handle. IFLO has formed the current 7 week base over the 50 day EMA as part of a much larger 2.5 year cup with handle of sorts. Strong move upside Tuesday on a solid earnings report and then a modest, low volume faded tapping at the 10 day EMA (16) on the intraday lows to finish the week. Nice higher low as IFLO continues to build higher for the for the breakout from the larger pattern.
Volume: 120.967K Avg Volume: 162.566K
BUY POINT: $16.65 Volume=200K Target=$19.95 Stop=$15.77
POSITION: QIF FC - June $15c (68 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/iflo.html
Play Date: 02/24/2007
ROST (Ross Stores--$34.12; -0.12; optionable): Discount apparel stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rost.html
EARNINGS: 3-21-07
STATUS: Breakout test. ROST cleared a 3 year range to start 2007. It tested and made a second run two weeks back on strong volume, peaking out at 35. It came back to test this week, showing a pair of dojis at the 10 day EMA (33.99) on low, below average volume. Excellent break higher and a very constructive test. Money flow remains strong even on this test. This is just the second fade to test the breakout, and thus there is still plenty of upside ahead of ROST. Volume started higher Friday, and we will look for more volume as it holds and resumes the breakout run.
Volume: 902.929K Avg Volume: 1.3M
BUY POINT: $34.62 Volume=1.5M Target=$39.95 Stop=$33.41
POSITION: REQ HG - Aug. $35c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/rost.html
New buy point on current position:
Play Date: 02/24/2007
RIMM (Research in Motion--$140.00; -0.30; optionable): Blackberries, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rimm.html
EARNINGS: 4-4-07
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Started to break higher Tuesday on rising trade, clearing the February highs as it made the move. It could not extend the gain, however, and faded to the 10 day EMA (138.30) to close the week, coming back on low volume and showing a tight doji at that level Friday. Nice 14 week base is setting RIMM up for the break to the new all-time high; really liking this nice, easy pullback to make a higher low at near support. Now just waiting for the next break higher on strong volume to take some more positions.
Volume: 4.978M Avg Volume: 8.982M
BUY POINT: $142.94 Volume=13M Target=$159.95 Stop=$136.32
POSITION: RFY FH - June $140c (57 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/rimm.html
Downside:
Play Date: 02/24/2007
MSFT (Microsoft--$28.90; -0.49; optionable): iPod knock-offs, game boxes, buggy software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/msft.html
STATUS: Head and shoulders. After announcing the Vista release MSFT is in the fade mode. It ran from June to January in anticipation and since it has rolled over and started to sell. Volume jumped just over a week back as it gapped below the 90 day MA (29.16). It recovered last week, but could only make it to the 18 day EMA, showing a doji there Thursday. It turned over Friday and sold off through the 90 day MA again with some rising, average volume. Money flow is leading lower and MSFT looks ready to follow. A move to the target lands a 45%ish gain.
Volume: 63.864M Avg Volume: 61.859M
BUY POINT: $28.76 Volume=64M Target=$27.68 Stop=$29.22
POSITION: MQF PK - Apr. $30p (-62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/msft.html
Play Date: 02/24/2007
SAY (Satyam Computer Services--$22.43; -0.81; optionable): Consulting and IT services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/say.html
EARNINGS: Announced 1-19-07
STATUS: Head and shoulders. Volume jumped above average Friday for the first time since early February, coincident with SAY's break down through the 90 day MA (22.75), starting the breakdown from its topping pattern. After a breakout in October and a run higher into mid-January, it peaked and gapped sharply lower. It tried to dance along the 50 day EMA (23.38) since with a couple of taps at the 90 day MA, but it could not attract any volume to push it. When the volume came Friday, it was selling volume. Looking to move in and snatch the downside as it breaks down from this 12 week top. A move to the target lands a 41% gain.
Volume: 1.242M Avg Volume: 923.751K
BUY POINT: $22.31 Volume=1M Target=$21.04 Stop=$22.65
POSITION: SAY PX - Apr. $22.50p (-47 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/say.html
Play Date: 02/24/2007
SHFL (Shuffle Master--$25.04; -0.37; optionable): Card shuffling machines
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/shfl.html
EARNINGS: Late March
STATUS: Put. In a continuing downtrend that started in the summer of 2006. It tried to rally again to end 2006 but it folded and collapsed again. It rebounded in January and early February, but gapped down again three weeks back. It recovered and moved back to the 18 day EMA (25.97) and then tolled over again last week on rising volume. Friday it broke through the February lows, ready to follow money flow as it plunges even further. A move to the target lands a 45%ish gain.
Volume: 775.132K Avg Volume: 941.813K
BUY POINT: $24.88 Volume=1M Target=$23.35 Stop=$25.22
POSITION: SFQ PE - Apr. $25p (-44 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/shfl.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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stock recommendation
stock investment information
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