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trade stock, stock split
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Good movers: DIOD; EXC; FDX; TIE; SBUX
New Plays:
New Post Split Plays:
Play Date: 02/24/2007
BLUD (Immucor--$32.81; +0.10; optionable): Diagnostic substances (reagents, etc. for blood)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/blud.html
EARNINGS: Early April
STATUS: Ascending base. Great breakout and run from September to early January and then slipped into the current 7 week base that is making higher lows along the 50 day EMA (31.16). It is approaching the last high tapped out in early February at 33.19, working its way this money on some very low volume. That is fine as it consolidates as it shows slow, steady accumulation. When it makes its break to the upside, however, we want to see trade jump as that shows the kind of interest that sets a stock off on a breakout run. Excellent fundamentals growth rates to to with the pattern that is ready to take BLUD to a new all-time high.
Volume: 549.741K Avg Volume: 878.356K
BUY POINT: $33.24 Volume=10M Target=$39.55 Stop=$31.98
POSITION: QMQ FF - June $30c (72 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/blud.html
Play Date: 02/24/2007
CHAP (Chaparral Steel Company--$51.62; -0.51; optionable): Steel & iron
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/chap.html
EARNINGS: Mid-March
STATUS: Breakout test. CHAP is working more or less laterally this month as it tests the late January breakout from a 7 week cup base that took this relatively young issue (1.5 years) to a new all-time high. Solid volume last Wednesday as CHAP jumped off the 18 day EMA (50.32) shows the buyers are still active after the breakout. Money flow remains strong, and after this nice, low volume test of the Wednesday move we expect CHAP to continue the breakout run. Solid fundamentals to go along with the solid technical pattern.
Volume: 370.752K Avg Volume: 585.839K
BUY POINT: $52.32 Volume=650K Target=$59.95 Stop=$50.11
POSITION: ZHQ GJ - July $50c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/chap.html
Play Date: 02/24/2007
GRMN (Garmin Ltd.--$57.49; +0.80; optionable): GPS devices
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/grmn.html
EARNINGS: Announce 2-14-07
STATUS: Test breakout. GRMN broke out from a 7.5 month ascending base two weeks back on a strong earnings report; those GPS devices they put out are quite cool. You don't think you need one until you actually use one (sound familiar? PC's, fax machines, cell phones, wirelss - - who would ever need such things?). GRMN is testing that move higher, holding the breakout and refusing to give up any gains. Love a stingy stock. The range is pinching off, narrowing while holding the move. That indicates the next move is approaching. Looking to move in as GRMN makes the next break higher. Strong pattern, strong fundamentals.
Volume: 1.665M Avg Volume: 2.718M
BUY POINT: $58.05 Volume=3M Target=$66.75 Stop=$55.32
POSITION: GQR GK - July $55c (67 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/grmn.html
Play Date: 02/24/2007
ROST (Ross Stores--$34.12; -0.12; optionable): Discount apparel stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rost.html
EARNINGS: 3-21-07
STATUS: Breakout test. ROST cleared a 3 year range to start 2007. It tested and made a second run two weeks back on strong volume, peaking out at 35. It came back to test this week, showing a pair of dojis at the 10 day EMA (33.99) on low, below average volume. Excellent break higher and a very constructive test. Money flow remains strong even on this test. This is just the second fade to test the breakout, and thus there is still plenty of upside ahead of ROST. Volume started higher Friday, and we will look for more volume as it holds and resumes the breakout run.
Volume: 902.929K Avg Volume: 1.3M
BUY POINT: $34.62 Volume=1.5M Target=$39.95 Stop=$33.41
POSITION: REQ HG - Aug. $35c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/rost.html
Downside:
Play Date: 02/24/2007
SAY (Satyam Computer Services--$22.43; -0.81; optionable): Consulting and IT services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/say.html
EARNINGS: Announced 1-19-07
STATUS: Head and shoulders. Volume jumped above average Friday for the first time since early February, coincident with SAY's break down through the 90 day MA (22.75), starting the breakdown from its topping pattern. After a breakout in October and a run higher into mid-January, it peaked and gapped sharply lower. It tried to dance along the 50 day EMA (23.38) since with a couple of taps at the 90 day MA, but it could not attract any volume to push it. When the volume came Friday, it was selling volume. Looking to move in and snatch the downside as it breaks down from this 12 week top. A move to the target lands a 41% gain.
Volume: 1.242M Avg Volume: 923.751K
BUY POINT: $22.31 Volume=1M Target=$21.04 Stop=$22.65
POSITION: SAY PX - Apr. $22.50p (-47 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/say.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We consider many stocks for pre-announcement plays every week. We get information regarding upcoming announcements and other data that leads us to conclude a split announcement is coming. Even then, however, we have to be discriminating. We have to see a strong technical pattern as well, and thus we reject many potential candidates based on a weak technical position. Some we consider have announced, but have not fared well given their technical patterns were weak to begin with.
The key today is to find stocks in strong patterns or that are ready to rebound off support. A split announcement will amplify the move higher in these cases as we enjoy moves from strong leaders in position to run higher. We won't chase a stock in a poor technical position even if we know it is going to split; it simply won't do us any good, i.e. it won't make us any money to the upside. We could list all stocks we think are going to split, but again, that won't make us any money unless we are in an office pool as to what stocks will or won't announce a stock split.
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern and of course the strong earnings growth that put it in the pattern in the first place.
BA: Researching the date
BNI: Earnings were 1-23-07. Researching date.
CAH: Tentatively forecast for 4-26.07
CEC: Forecast 3-6-07
CLE: Tentatively forecast 3-15-07
FDX: Forecast 3-21-07
JCI: Another stock that announced a dividend versus a split and it is running higher again.
KSS: Forecast 3-1-07
POT: Tentatively set for third week in April
RL: Researching date.
RIMM: Tentatively set first week of April
VIVO: Forecast mid-February
YUM: Forecast 5-1-07
NEW PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 02/24/2007
CELG (Celgene--$56.28; +1.41; optionable): Biotechnology. Forecast mid-March
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split 12-28-05 at $60.90. Before that a 2:1 split 9-9-04 at $57.40.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/celg.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-1-07
STATUS: Double bottom. Excellent action off of the 90 day EMA that CELG used as support for the two lows in its 9 week base. After a strong run in 2005 through mid-2006 CELG needed some rest and it has formed a couple of bases. Friday it started the breakout from its second, clearing the 'hump' in the middle of the current base on strong, above average volume. Ready to move in as it continues higher and then again when it tests and/or forms a handle for the next breakout. Excellent fundamentals to go along with the strong technical pattern.
Volume: 4.881M Avg Volume: 3.521M
BUY POINT: $56.54 Volume=4M Target=$64.95 Stop=$54.65
POSITION: LQH GK - July $55c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/celg.html
Play Date: 02/24/2007
CMTL (Comtech Telecom--$36.43; -0.10; optionable): Telecom equipment.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split on 3-9-05 at $36.40. Before that a 3:2 split on 6-18-03 at $30.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cmtl.html
EARNINGS: Early March
STATUS: Double bottom. CMTL is working on a quiet little 10 week base that is acting as the handle for a much larger 15 month cup with handle pattern. Nice rally off of the last low took it over the 50 day EMA (36.20) where it is testing now with a nice doji Friday on some big volume. Money flow remains strong, moving higher ahead of price. May take a couple more sessions to test and hold the 50 day EMA, but after that it is ready for its next leg higher. We want to pick it off as it makes that move.
Volume: 350.721K Avg Volume: 217.064K
BUY POINT: $36.69 Volume=275K Target=$42.65 Stop=$35.62
POSITION: CHQ GG - July $35c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cmtl.html
New buy point on current position:
Play Date: 02/24/2007
RIMM (Research in Motion--$140.00; -0.30; optionable): Blackberries, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rimm.html
EARNINGS: 4-4-07
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Started to break higher Tuesday on rising trade, clearing the February highs as it made the move. It could not extend the gain, however, and faded to the 10 day EMA (138.30) to close the week, coming back on low volume and showing a tight doji at that level Friday. Nice 14 week base is setting RIMM up for the break to the new all-time high; really liking this nice, easy pullback to make a higher low at near support. Now just waiting for the next break higher on strong volume to take some more positions.
Volume: 4.978M Avg Volume: 8.982M
BUY POINT: $142.94 Volume=13M Target=$159.95 Stop=$136.32
POSITION: RFY FH - June $140c (57 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/rimm.html
CONTINUING PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 02/21/2007
CAH (Cardinal Health--$72.44; +0.05; optionable): Products, services to health care providers
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cah.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Tapped the 18 day EMA on the Friday low and rebounded for a gain with some rising though still below average volume. Money flow continues to lead and after this shakeout it is ready for the breakout. To recap: Years of basing has placed CAH in the current 11 month base, now working on the handle, the last step before the breakout. Excellent action as it comes back to tap the 10 day EMA to make a higher low and set up the breakout move. Money flow is leading higher and after this higher low CAH is ready to follow it.
Volume: 1.482M Avg Volume: 1.937M
BUY POINT: $73.45 Volume=2.9M Target=$84.45 Stop=$71.15
POSITION: CAH FN - June $70c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cah.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 02/03/2007
APH (Amphenol Corp.--$67.83; +0.04; optionable): Electronics. Splits 2:1 on 4-2-07
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aph.html
EARNINGS: 1-17-07
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Volume jumped higher Tuesday and APH looked ready to make the move. Trade trailed off to end the week so it was not the time. The range narrowed and volume was low as it holds just below 68 in the tight handle. Another stock that is ready but still has to show the move.
Volume: 247.9K Avg Volume: 708.37K
BUY POINT: $68.65 Volume=1.2M Target=$78.95 Stop=$66.57
POSITION: APH DM - Apr. $65c (68 delta) or APH GN - July $70c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/aph.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 02/22/2007
ADBE (Adobe Systems--$40.63; -0.18; optionable): Software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/adbe.html
EARNINGS: 3-20-07
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Another lateral and slightly lower move Friday on very low volume as ADBE forms the handle to its base. Excellent action setting up the breakout move. To recap: A neat little 9 week base is forming as ADBE starts working laterally to form a handle and set up the next breakout move. This base ahs formed just below ADBE's all-time high, setting up and gathering its strength for the break above 43. May take a few more sessions to form the handle and make the breakout move, but showing solid strength.
Volume: 3.394M Avg Volume: 5.259M
BUY POINT: $41.32 Volume=7.9M Target=$47.95 Stop=$39.64
POSITION: AEQ GH - July $40c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/adbe.html
Play Date: 02/07/2007
RESP (Respironics--$41.94; -0.22; optionable): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/resp.html
STATUS: Test breakout. Nice tap at the 18 day EMA on the Friday low and rebounding to recoup the losses on low volume. Nice pattern and now an excellent shakeout. The set up is there, just waiting on the breakout. To recap: Excellent test of that strong late January breakout move. Just looking for some volume on the way up to enter the play.
Volume: 209.821K Avg Volume: 323.457K
BUY POINT: $42.48 Volume=400K Target=$48.85 Stop=$41.11
POSITION: RBQ GH - July $40c (67 delta, 88 OI). &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/resp.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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trade stock
stock split
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