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stock recommendation, stock investment information
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: EXC; MSTR; RIMM; WNR; SBUX
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 02/26/2007
ADBE (Adobe Systems--$40.87; +0.24; optionable): Software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/adbe.html
EARNINGS: 3-20-07
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. A neat little 9 week base is forming as ADBE works laterally to form a handle and set up the next breakout move. This base has formed just below ADBE's all-time high, setting up and gathering its strength for the break above 43. Just about finished forming the handle and make the breakout move, showing solid strength with money flow rising even as the price moves laterally.
Volume: 3.726M Avg Volume: 5.259M
BUY POINT: $41.32 Volume=7.9M Target=$47.95 Stop=$39.64
POSITION: AEQ GH - July $40c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/adbe.html
Play Date: 02/26/2007
HOC (Holly Corp.--$56.39; +0.50; optionable): Oil and gas refining, marketing
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hoc.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-12-07
STATUS: Test breakout. HOC broke out from an 11 week cup with handle base last Wednesday, making the break from a 7 month base on base pattern. Strong break higher, now testing on lower trade, catching its breath before it continues the move to a new all-time high. HOC did not suffer the gutting many energy stocks did during the correct, holding up and showing some continuing accumulation.
Volume: 427.39K Avg Volume: 719.716K
BUY POINT: $56.98 Volume=750K Target=$65.75 Stop=$54.95
POSITION: HOC FK - June $55c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/hoc.html
Play Date: 02/26/2007
NUVA (Nuvasive--$25.06; -0.50; optionable): Medical products for the treatment of spine disorders
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nuva.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-20-07
STATUS: Test breakout. NUVA gapped out of a sweet little 11 week reverse head and shoulders last week on a strong earnings report. It started to test Friday and came back a bit further Monday on continued lower volume. It is right above the 10 day EMA (24.72), and we are looking for it to hold near that level and then start back up on some stronger trade. That is when we move in. Solid and ready for a new all-time high.
Volume: 291.082K Avg Volume: 262.793K
BUY POINT: $25.32 Volume=350K Target=$29.92 Stop=$24.15
POSITION: QNU FE - June $25c (58 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/nuva.html
Play Date: 02/26/2007
TX (Ternium--$29.85; +1.10; optionable): Steel and iron
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tx.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Strong volume Monday as TX started the breakout from a short but nicely formed 7 week base. A new issue in February 2006, this base is its second base of its life, and it is heading for a new all-time high after this good set up. Strong money flow is surging higher ahead of price, and TX has shown strong price/volume action in this base.
Volume: 1.188M Avg Volume: 543.549K
BUY POINT: $30.05 Volume=550K Target=$34.65 Stop=$28.21
POSITION: TX HF - Aug. $30c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/tx.html
Downside:
Play Date: 02/26/2007
QDEL (Quidel--$11.03; -0.67; optionable): Diagnostic substances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/q/qdel.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-15-07
STATUS: Put. QDEL gapped lower two weeks back on earnings that under-whelmed the market. It gamely tried to hold the 200 day SMA (12.07), recovering that level but then rolling over Friday and undercutting its recent lows Monday. Strong downside volume and money flow is diving lower. Ready to move in with some positions on a further drop and then adding on a test after this surge lower bounces. A move to the target lands a 42%ish gain.
Volume: 1.192M Avg Volume: 397.184K
BUY POINT: $10.94 Volume=595K Target=$9.57 Stop=$11.57
POSITION: QWS PV - Apr. $12.50p (-60 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/qdel.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Downside:
Play Date: 02/24/2007
MSFT (Microsoft--$29.07; +0.17; optionable): iPod knock-offs, game boxes, buggy software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/msft.html
STATUS: Head and shoulders. Bounced back modestly to tap at the 10 day EMA (29.19) on the high. Still set for the fall. To recap: After announcing the Vista release MSFT is in the fade mode. It ran from June to January in anticipation and since it has rolled over and started to sell. Volume jumped just over a week back as it gapped below the 90 day MA (29.16). It recovered last week, but could only make it to the 18 day EMA, showing a doji there Thursday. It turned over Friday and sold off through the 90 day MA again with some rising, average volume. Money flow is leading lower and MSFT looks ready to follow. A move to the target lands a 45%ish gain.
Volume: 63.53M Avg Volume: 61.859M
BUY POINT: $28.76 Volume=64M Target=$27.68 Stop=$29.22
POSITION: MQF PK - Apr. $30p (-62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/msft.html
Play Date: 02/24/2007
SAY (Satyam Computer Services--$22.68; +0.25; optionable): Consulting and IT services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/say.html
EARNINGS: Announced 1-19-07
STATUS: Head and shoulders. Gapped higher but could not hold the 90 day EMA (22.75) as volume was lower and below average. Still primed to dump lower. To recap: Volume jumped above average Friday for the first time since early February, coincident with SAY's break down through the 90 day MA, starting the breakdown from its topping pattern. After a breakout in October and a run higher into mid-January, it peaked and gapped sharply lower. It tried to dance along the 50 day EMA (23.38) since with a couple of taps at the 90 day MA, but it could not attract any volume to push it. When the volume came Friday, it was selling volume. Looking to move in and snatch the downside as it breaks down from this 12 week top. A move to the target lands a 41% gain.
Volume: 796.73K Avg Volume: 923.751K
BUY POINT: $22.31 Volume=1M Target=$21.04 Stop=$22.65
POSITION: SAY PX - Apr. $22.50p (-47 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/say.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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stock recommendation
stock investment information
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