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money investment, investment help
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2/27/07 Investment House Alerts Report
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IH Alert Subscribers:
MARKET ALERTS:
With this kind of news and the set up for a correction we were selling just about everything today as these can go on for days. That is why we kept taking gain on each rally: market was extended and could be upset by the right combination of news. It got the right combination and then some on Tuesday.
Target hit alerts: SBUX; SYY
Buy alerts: MSFT
Trailing stops: GIGM; ICON; RIO; POT; IIVI; SIMO; VCLK; ICE; ANST
Stop alerts: HPC; VRSN; HOLX; CELG; FALC; STLD; QGEN; HWCC; OII; CMG; JEC; ATHR; TIE; WFR; MON; DO; CSX; CROX; CHL; AH
SUMMARY:
- No new money (or not enough) to overcome this combination of bad news.
- Weak durables telling us Q4 GDP was somewhat of a fluke, but overall economic outlook is not really different despite the worries this week.
- Selling has the attributes of a correction versus a bear growl, but the selling is not done yet.
* * * TONIGHT * * * * *
VIDEO NEWSLETTER
Given the tough session we are broadcasting a video market summary tonight.
Go to the following link: http://www.themarketbeat.com/vwLogin.asp
Enter the following password: 94Er5u81
Use these links to view market charts as we discuss them. If the link does not open, cut and paste the link into your browser.
NASDAQ: http://www.themarketbeat.com/videonewslettercharts/NASDAQ.jpeg
SP500: http://www.themarketbeat.com/videonewslettercharts/SP500.jpeg
DJ30: http://www.themarketbeat.com/videonewslettercharts/DJ30.jpeg
THE MARKET
MARKET SENTIMENT
VIX: 18.31; +7.16. Vaulted higher and within 6 points of the June high that helped set the summer 2006 bottom. It can get to that level it would start lining up with the put/call ratio. It is not a timing indicator but it works to help set a bottom and then move from there. Sad to say, however, that historically it needs to be in the forties to fifties to really show a bottom.
VXN: 22.97; +6.99
VXO: 18.85; +7.78
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1.7; +0.68. Fifth straight close above 1.0. Spiked on the downside crush and is getting to the point of extreme but the other indicators have to get there as well.
Bulls versus Bears:
Bulls: 50.0%, down from 51.1% last week and 53.3% four weeks back. Starting to head in the right direction after grazing past 55% (the 55.4%) in early January. Still quite a bit of bullishness though backing down from the 55% threshold hit to end 2006 and considered bearish as it signals pretty much everyone is in the market.
Bears: 22.2%, up from 21.1% last week though still hanging in this low twenties range (was 22.2% three weeks back). Still too close at this juncture as it indicates not enough pessimism. When bears are low it is the same as high bulls: everyone is in. Hit a new post-2002 high in that late June 2006 move, eclipsing the March 2006 high (33%) and well above the 2005 highs that spawned new rallies (30% in May 2005, 29.2% in October 2005).
NASDAQ
Stats: -96.66 points (-3.86%) to close at 2407.26
Volume: 3.053B (+60.26%)
Up Volume: 145.511M (-548.533M)
Down Volume: 2.907B (+1.851B)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 9.94 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.48 to 1
New Highs: 12 (-92)
New Lows: 79 (+55)
NASDAQ: http://www.themarketbeat.com/videonewslettercharts/NASDAQ.jpeg
SP500/NYSE
Stats: -50.33 points (-3.47%) to close at 1399.04
NYSE Volume: 2.336B (+50.24%)
Up Volume: 23.171M (-751.248M)
Down Volume: 2.313B (+1.559B)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 6.35 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1 to 1
New Highs: 30 (-157)
New Lows: 29 (+14)
SP500: http://www.themarketbeat.com/videonewslettercharts/SP500.jpeg
DJ30
Stats: -416.02 points (-3.29%) to close at 12216.24
Volume: 393M shares Tuesday versus 230M shares Monday.
DJ30: http://www.themarketbeat.com/videonewslettercharts/DJ30.jpeg
Support and Resistance
NASDAQ: Closed at 2407.86
Resistance:
The 50 day EMA at 2457
2468.42 is the November 2006 high
2471 is the December 2006 high
2509 is the January 2007 high
2523 is price resistance November 2000
2533 is the upper channel from the November and January highs.
2573 - 2852 from peaks in April and May 1999
Support:
2412 from June 1999 low
2384 is an interim peak from January 1999
2379 is the October high.
2376 is the April high, the former post-2002 high
2368 is the early October handle high.
S&P 500: Closed at 1399.04
Resistance:
1408 is the November high
1425 is an interim high from November 1999
The 50 day EMA at 1429
1432 is the December 2006 high
1442 is the late November to February up trendline
1440 is the mid-January high
1444 from February 2000
1465 is the upper band of the current channel
1475 from peaks in December 1999 and January 2000
Support:
1400 is some price support trying to hold.
1389 is the October peak.
1353 is the early October consolidation range
Dow: Closed at 12,216.24
Resistance:
The 50 day EMA at 12,518
12,630 is the up trendline connecting the November and January intraday lows.
12,810 is the upper channel line marking the November to date uptrend channel.
About 8.6% above the 200 day SMA. Still going strong, overcoming the chop as it pushes to a series of new highs once more.
Support:
12,499 is the December intraday high.
12,361 is the November 2006 high
October high is 12,167
11,986 is price support from mid-October and the early November low.
11,865 from the early October consolidation
11,750.28 is the pre-2000 all-time high
Economic Calendar
These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.
February 27
Durable goods orders, January (8:30): -8.8% actual versus -3.0% expected, 2.9% prior
Consumer confidence, February (10:00): 112.5 actual versus 109.0 expected, 110.3 prior
Existing home sales, January (10:00): +3% at 6.46M actual versus 6.24M expected, 6.22M prior
February 28
Q4 GDP 2nd iteration (8:30): 2.3% expected, 3.5% prior
Deflator, Q4 (8:30): 1.5% expected, 1.5% prior
Chicago PMI, February (9:45): 50.0 expected, 48.8 prior
New home sales, January (10:00): 1.08M expected, 1.12M prior
Crude oil inventories (10:30): 3.694M bbl prior
March 1
Personal income, January (8:30): 0.3% expected, 0.5% prior
Personal spending, January (8:30): 0.4% expected, 0.7% prior
Initial jobless claims (8:30): 325K expected, 332K prior
Construction spending, January (10:00): -0.4% expected, -0.4% prior
ISM Index, February (10:00): 50.0 expected, 49.3 prior
March 2
Michigan sentiment (final), February (10:00): 93.3 expected, 93.3 prior
End part 1 of 3
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