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stock split, stock recommendation
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Good movers: SAY; SBUX
New Plays:
Upside:
We are looking at the following stocks this week to see how the hold up under the selling pressure. They exhibited relative strength Tuesday and if they do not succumb we will be putting the strongest on the report. We will be reviewing other stocks over the next sessions to see which others are holding up and will be good candidates ahead.
UAPH
ICON
HPC
MOS
IVAC
AHS
PSYS
DRIV
COG
CVNS
BBBB
MFE
Downside:
Play Date: 02/27/2007
SONC (Sonic Corp.--$21.50; -0.79; optionable): Hamburger joints
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sonc.html
STATUS: Put. SONC gapped lower to start the year, falling to the 200 day SMA (22.05) and bouncing along that level for 7 weeks. Tuesday it broke through the 200 day on strong volume, booming lower. It gapped higher in mid-August and now it looks ready to dive lower and fill the gap, following the money flow lower. A move to the target lands a 45%ish gain. Love those stocks that have gaps to fill.
Volume: 1.048M Avg Volume: 616.524K
BUY POINT: $21.37 Volume=625K Target=$20.00 Stop=$22.11
POSITION: ZSQ RX - June $22.50p (-55 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/sonc.html
Play Date: 02/27/2007
CRI (Carter Holdings--$23.83; -0.41; optionable): Apparel
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cri.html
STATUS: Put. After rallying off the lows in August up into October, CRI double topped and has since slid lower just below the 50 day EMA (now at 25.13). It gapped lower two weeks back on some massive volume then rebounded, but could not make it back up to the 50 day, stalling at the 18 day EMA (24.13). That filled the gap and with money flow still weak we are looking for another run lower. A move to the target lands a 48%ish gain.
Volume: 1.316M Avg Volume: 746.358K
BUY POINT: $23.66 Volume=750K Target=$22.00 Stop=$24.21
POSITION: CRI PE - Apr. $25p (-56 delta, 75 OI)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cri.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We consider many stocks for pre-announcement plays every week. We get information regarding upcoming announcements and other data that leads us to conclude a split announcement is coming. Even then, however, we have to be discriminating. We have to see a strong technical pattern as well, and thus we reject many potential candidates based on a weak technical position. Some we consider have announced, but have not fared well given their technical patterns were weak to begin with.
The key today is to find stocks in strong patterns or that are ready to rebound off support. A split announcement will amplify the move higher in these cases as we enjoy moves from strong leaders in position to run higher. We won't chase a stock in a poor technical position even if we know it is going to split; it simply won't do us any good, i.e. it won't make us any money to the upside. We could list all stocks we think are going to split, but again, that won't make us any money unless we are in an office pool as to what stocks will or won't announce a stock split.
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern and of course the strong earnings growth that put it in the pattern in the first place.
BA: Researching the date
BNI: Earnings were 1-23-07. Researching date.
CAH: Tentatively forecast for 4-26.07
CEC: Forecast 3-6-07
CLE: Tentatively forecast 3-15-07
FDX: Forecast 3-21-07
KSS: Forecast 3-1-07
POT: Tentatively set for third week in April
RL: Researching date.
RIMM: Tentatively set first week of April
VIVO: Forecast mid-February. Never announced.
YUM: Forecast 5-1-07
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 02/22/2007
ASCA (Ameristar Casinos--$32.68; -1.03; optionable): Resorts and casinos
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/asca.html
STATUS: Breakout test. ASCA showed relative strength Tuesday, though it sold back it held the 18 day EMA on the low. That gave back the breakout from last week but it kept the stock well positioned to resume the move higher and continue to another new high.
Volume: 555.124K Avg Volume: 307.479K
BUY POINT: $34.41 Volume=325K Target=$40.95 Stop=$32.38
POSITION: UWT FG - July $35c (52 delta) or UWT FF - July $30c (80 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/asca.html
Play Date: 02/26/2007
HOC (Holly Corp.--$54.50; -1.89; optionable): Oil and gas refining, marketing
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hoc.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-12-07
STATUS: Test breakout. A wild session as HOC gapped lower and sold quickly to the 50 day EMA. It then rebounded to close at the 18 day EMA; a loss, but holding the pattern even though it gave the breakout back. Showing nice relative strength and going to let it make the test and then see if it can show us the breakout once more. To recap: HOC broke out from an 11 week cup with handle base last Wednesday, making the break from a 7 month base on base pattern. Strong break higher, now testing on lower trade, catching its breath before it continues the move to a new all-time high. HOC did not suffer the gutting many energy stocks did during the correct, holding up and showing some continuing accumulation.
Volume: 811.8K Avg Volume: 721.2K
BUY POINT: $56.98 Volume=750K Target=$65.75 Stop=$54.95
POSITION: HOC FK - June $55c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/hoc.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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stock split
stock recommendation
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