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us stock market, stock recommendation
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: HOC; RVSN; VSAT; WNR; SAY
New Plays:
Upside: Putting these on the report as they have held up well. Want to see solid moves upside to enter, and when we do we will move in with partial positions.
Play Date: 02/28/2007
HLTH (Webmd Corp.--$14.94; +0.33; optionable): Healthcare information services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hlth.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-22-07
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. HLTH shook us out Tuesday on the low and then recovered to hold that level and post a gain on rising, average volume. This is its second test of the strong January and breakout run from its 25 week cup with handle base. Super move, surging last week with a gap higher on earnings. It has since tested, and a testament to its strength, it tested the 18 day EMA (14.67) on Tuesday but on lower, below average volume. Volume moved up Wednesday as it tested and started higher. Money flow remains stronger and is ramping back up ahead of the price. Looking for continuing volume as HLTH continues onto its next leg higher following the breakout.
Volume: 5.172M Avg Volume: 5.324M
BUY POINT: $15.11 Volume=8M Target=$18.25 Stop=$14.38
POSITION: HUT GC - July $15c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/hlth.html
Play Date: 02/28/2007
ICON (Iconix Brand Group--$21.93; +0.45; optionable): Brand management company (Candies, Joe Boxer, Ocean Pacific)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/icon.html
EARNINGS: 3-6-07
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. Excellent surge two weeks back as ICON broke out from a 10 week ascending base. Strong volume as it made the break and hitting 23 on the high, a new all-time high by the way. Testing this week on lower volume, even lower on the Tuesday market sell off. It held the 18 day EMA (21.37) and posted a gain Wednesday on the best volume in a week. Excellent action and ready to move back in as ICON continues higher.
Volume: 1.133M Avg Volume: 912.969K
BUY POINT: $22.08 Volume=1.4M Target=$25.95 Stop=$20.98
POSITION: QIA ED - May $20c (73 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/icon.html
Play Date: 02/28/2007
NUAN (Nuance Communications--$11.46; -0.12; optionable): Voice activated services for communications, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nuan.html
STATUS: Test breakout. NUAN surged out of its 9 month cup with handle base to start February, surging to 15 on the run from the breakout point at 12.50. It gapped lower Tuesday in the selling but volume was not out of hand and it held the 18 day EMA (13.95) on the close. Wednesday it fell below that level but rallied back to hold it on the close with lower but still strong, above average volume. May take some more time to set up, but showing excellent relative strength. Want to see strong volume as it surges back up.
Volume: 1.563M Avg Volume: 3.226M
BUY POINT: $14.65 Volume=5.5M Target=$17.65 Stop=$13.77
POSITION: SSQ GV - July $12.50c (73 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/nuan.html
Play Date: 02/28/2007
PETD (Petroleum Development Corp.--$52.37; +0.35; optionable): Oil and gas refining
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/petd.html
STATUS: Test breakout. PETD blasted out of a 12 month ascending base in late January, rallying to 52. It worked laterally at that level for 3 weeks, consolidating the run in a tight range. Monday it broke higher on strong volume. Tuesday it was pushed back but on much lower trade. Wednesday it showed a doji above the 18 day EMA. Nice hold after everything was dumped Tuesday. Looking for volume to jump as PETD moves higher off of this test.
Volume: 109.9K Avg Volume: 120K
BUY POINT: $52.15 Volume=180K Target=$60.95 Stop=$51.08
POSITION: PHQ GJ - July $50c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/petd.html
Play Date: 02/28/2007
TALX (Talx Corp.--$34.03; +0.60; optionable): Payroll services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/talx.html
EARNINGS: Announced 1-24-07
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. TALX is making the second test of its late January, earnings induced breakout from a 11 month cup with handle base. TALX started the second leg with a massive gap two weeks back that made us a nice chunk of change. It has tested back since, coming back to the 18 day EMA (33.51) in a very orderly, relatively low volume test. Even in the Tuesday selling its volume was lower than the prior session and right at average. Wednesday TALX started to bounce on rising volume. Money flow is still way out in front of price. Nice. Looking for more volume as TALX moves higher.
Volume: 1.074M Avg Volume: 490.6K
BUY POINT: $34.41 Volume=900K Target=$39.65 Stop=$33.22
POSITION: TUB FG - July $35c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/talx.html
Downside:
Play Date: 02/28/2007
DIA (Diamonds Trust DJ30 ETF--$122.66; +1.06; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dia.html
STATUS: Put. DIA (mirroring DJ30) crashed the 90 day MA (123.78) Tuesday and waived at it Wednesday on the session high (123.47). It faded back to close, showing a big doji. It may try to bounce again , and if it does and fails at the 90 day and rolls over, great. If not, we will move in on a further drop from here. As we noted in the summary, there is likely another drop near term and we want to play it. A move to the target from the Wednesday close lands a 44%ish gain.
Volume: 19.95M Avg Volume: 8.079M
BUY POINT: From the Wednesday close: $122.49; A test of 123, then 122.88 on the way back down. Volume=9M Target=$122.00 Stop=$122.78
POSITION: DAW PS - Apr. $123p (-45 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/dia.html
Play Date: 02/28/2007
SPY (S&P 500 ETF --$140.93; +1.43; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/spy.html
STATUS: Put. SPY undercut its 90 day MA (141.41) on the Tuesday close and Wednesday it tested that move, moving up through that level intraday but then rolling back over to close below it. It may try it again, and we are looking for it to fail at that level and roll back down. It may or may not test, but either way we want to catch the move back down. A move to the target from the Wednesday close lands a 42%ish gain.
Volume: 177.574M Avg Volume: 68.969M
BUY POINT: $140.76 Volume=70M Target=$138.00 Stop=$141.51
POSITION: SFB PK - Apr. $141p (-44 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/spy.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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