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3/01/07 Technical Traders Report
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Technical Traders Report Subscribers:
MARKET ALERTS
Target hit alerts: None issued
Buy alerts: DIA
Trailing stops: PLCN
Stop alerts: None issued
The market alert service is a premium level service where we issue intraday alerts relating to the general market conditions, when stocks hit action points (buy, stop, target, etc.), and when we see other information impacting the market or our stocks. To subscribe to the SSR alert service you can sign up at the following link:
http://www.investmenthouse.com/alertttr.html
SUMMARY:
- Another foreign story gives an excuse for a blow down, but then a recovery.
- Market screams lower, finds some support after 5% losses.
- Spending, income, ISM solid, but Congress wants to meddle.
- Still some solid leadership holding the line as market sets up for the interim bounce.
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VIDEO NEWSLETTER
Due to the great response from our last video we are doing another tonight.
Go to the following link: http://www.themarketbeat.com/vwLogin.asp
Enter the following password: 94Er5u81
Use these links to view market charts as we discuss them. If the link does not open, cut and paste the link into your browser.
NASDAQ: http://www.themarketbeat.com/videonewslettercharts/NASDAQ.jpeg
SP500: http://www.themarketbeat.com/videonewslettercharts/SP500.jpeg
DJ30: http://www.themarketbeat.com/videonewslettercharts/DJ30.jpeg
THE MARKET
MARKET SENTIMENT
VIX: 15.82; +0.4. Hit over 19 on the high once more and then beat a retreat as the market recovered. Still low even on the high, but might be enough for an interim bounce in the market.
VXN: 21.51; +0.98
VXO: 16.21; +0.28
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1.42; +0.34. Seven closes over 1.0 in a row. Things are starting to line up with the ratio to indicate an interim bounce.
Bulls versus Bears:
Bulls: 50.0%, down from 51.1% last week and 53.3% four weeks back. Starting to head in the right direction after grazing past 55% (the 55.4%) in early January. Still quite a bit of bullishness though backing down from the 55% threshold hit to end 2006 and considered bearish as it signals pretty much everyone is in the market.
Bears: 22.2%, up from 21.1% last week though still hanging in this low twenties range (was 22.2% three weeks back). Still too close at this juncture as it indicates not enough pessimism. When bears are low it is the same as high bulls: everyone is in. Hit a new post-2002 high in that late June 2006 move, eclipsing the March 2006 high (33%) and well above the 2005 highs that spawned new rallies (30% in May 2005, 29.2% in October 2005).
NASDAQ
Stats: -11.94 points (-0.49%) to close at 2404.21
Volume: 2.82B (+3.48%)
Up Volume: 718.137M (-947.863M)
Down Volume: 1.907B (+929.545M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.91 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.19 to 1
New Highs: 39 (+11)
New Lows: 108 (+37)
NASDAQ CHART: http://www.themarketbeat.com/videonewslettercharts/NASDAQ.jpeg
If the link does not open, cut and paste the link into your browser.
SP500/NYSE
Stats: -3.65 points (-0.26%) to close at 1403.17
NYSE Volume: 2.144B (-0.03%)
Up Volume: 767.691M (-653.619M)
Down Volume: 1.427B (+655.001M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.57 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.76 to 1
New Highs: 27 (-18)
New Lows: 11 (-20)
SP500 CHART: http://www.themarketbeat.com/videonewslettercharts/SP500.jpeg
If the link does not open, cut and paste the link into your browser.
DJ30
Stats: -34.29 points (-0.28%) to close at 12234.34
Volume: 372M shares Thursday versus 412M shares Wednesday.
DJ30 CHART: http://www.themarketbeat.com/videonewslettercharts/DJ30.jpeg
If the link does not open, cut and paste the link into your browser.
Support and Resistance
NASDAQ: Closed at 24o4.21
Resistance:
The 90 day MA at 2433
The 50 day EMA at 2456
2468.42 is the November 2006 high
2471 is the December 2006 high
2509 is the January 2007 high
2523 is price resistance November 2000
Support:
2412 from June 1999 low
2400ish from the late November and late December 2006 lows.
2384 is an interim peak from January 1999
2379 is the October high.
2376 is the April high, the former post-2002 high
2368 is the early October handle high.
S&P 500: Closed at 1403.17
Resistance:
1408 is the November high
The 90 day MA at 1413
1425 is an interim high from November 1999
The 50 day EMA at 1428
1432 is the December 2006 high
1440 is the mid-January high
1444 is the late November to February up trendline
1444 from February 2000
1468 is the upper band of the current channel
1475 from peaks in December 1999 and January 2000
Support:
1400 is some price support trying to hold.
1389 is the October peak.
1353 is the early October consolidation range
Dow: Closed at 12,234.34
Resistance:
12,361 is the November 2006 high
The 90 day MA at 12,386
12,499 is the December intraday high.
The 50 day EMA at 12,498
12,657 is the up trendline connecting the November and January intraday lows.
12,815 is the upper channel line marking the November to date uptrend channel.
Support:
October high is 12,167
11,986 is price support from mid-October and the early November low.
11,865 from the early October consolidation
11,750.28 is the pre-2000 all-time high
Economic Calendar
These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.
February 27
Durable goods orders, January (8:30): -8.8% actual versus -3.0% expected, 2.9% prior
Consumer confidence, February (10:00): 112.5 actual versus 109.0 expected, 110.3 prior
Existing home sales, January (10:00): +3% at 6.46M actual versus 6.24M expected, 6.22M prior
February 28
Q4 GDP 2nd iteration (8:30): 2.2% actual versus 2.3% expected, 3.5% prior
Deflator, Q4 (8:30): 1.7% actual versus 1.5% expected, 1.5% prior
Chicago PMI, February (9:45): 47.9 actual versus 50.0 expected, 48.8 prior
New home sales, January (10:00): -20% at 937K actual versus 1.08M expected, 1.12M prior
Crude oil inventories (10:30): 1.4M bbl, 3.694M bbl prior
March 1
Personal income, January (8:30): 1.0% actual versus 0.3% expected, 0.5% prior
Personal spending, January (8:30): 0.5% expected versus 0.4% expected, 0.7% prior
Initial jobless claims (8:30): 338K actual versus 325K expected, 331K prior
Construction spending, January (10:00): -0.8% actual versus -0.4% expected, 0.6% prior (revised from -0.4%; yep that is a minus).
ISM Index, February (10:00): 52.3 actual versus 50.0 expected, 49.3 prior
March 2
Michigan sentiment (final), February (10:00): 93.3 expected, 93.3 prior
End part 1 of 3
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