|
|
us stock market, top stock pick
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
New Plays:
Upside: Again we are putting some more upside on the report in anticipation of the relief bounce from this selling.
New Pre-Split Plays:
Play Date: 03/01/2007
COG (Cabot Oil & Gas--$68.08; +0.39; optionable): Independent oil and gas. Splits 2:1 on 4-2-07
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cog.html
STATUS: Breakout test. COG jumped out of a 9 week cup with handle base two weeks back, rallying near 72 on that initial run. It was starting to test back when the selling hit this week. It continued to fade but its volume was lower as it did. It has held near support at the 18 day EMA (67.10) Tuesday through Thursday this week and started a rebound Thursday after a shakeout below the 18 day. Looking for some more volume as it continues higher off of this test. Very solid action during the selling.
Volume: 533.264K Avg Volume: 557.1K
BUY POINT: $68.85 Volume=700K Target=$76.95 Stop=$66.78
POSITION: COG GN - July $70c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cog.html
Play Date: 03/01/2007
NKE (Nike--$105.29; +0.82; optionable): Sportswear, sporting goods. Splits 2:1 on 4-3-07
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nke.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. NKE blasted higher to start February with a solid run off 100. It has come back to test, dumping hard Tuesday but holding near the 18 day EMA (104.63) on the closes even with the selling. A gap lower Thursday in the market weakness and then a solid recovery to post a gain on the close. Money flow has already jumped back up ahead of price. Looking to pick it up as it continues the rebound off the 50 day EMA test.
Volume: 2.117M Avg Volume: 1.731M
BUY POINT: $105.67 Volume=2M Target=$115.00 Stop=$102.95
POSITION: NKE GA - July $105c (52 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/nke.html
New Post-Split Plays:
Play Date: 03/01/2007
SSYS (Stratasys--$38.46; +1.78; optionable): Computer peripherals (3-D printing systems)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/ssys.html
STATUS: Breakout test. SSYS gapped out of a long, solid 9 month cup with handle in mid-February. It came back the past week with the market selling, but volume was very low and it held near support at the 18 day EMA (35.88) on the Wednesday low and then rebounding. Thursday it was rallying on strong volume with a strong move. Money flow is running higher ahead of price. Showing great relative strength. Ready to move in as it continues higher.
Volume: 348.467K Avg Volume: 115.137K
BUY POINT: $38.75 Volume=175K Target=$44.95 Stop=$36.88
POSITION: QQG FG - July $35c (73 delta, 72 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ssys.html
Downside:
Play Date: 03/01/2007
TMO (Thermo Fisher Scientific--$45.56; +0.30; optionable): Analytical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tmo.html
STATUS: Head and shoulders. TMO broke lower from a 7 week head and shoulders top Tuesday and closed below the 90 day MA (45.71). It sold further Thursday but rebounded on strong volume, tapping the 90 day on the high. It may come up to fill the gap, rallying up toward the 50 day EMA (46.81). If it does we will look for it to fail at that point and move in on the downside. If it continues lower from the Thursday close in an overall weak market, however, we will look to get in and ride it lower once more. A move to the target lands a 46%ish gain.
Volume: 6.816M Avg Volume: 3.187M
BUY POINT: $45.21 Volume=3.5M Target=$43.78 Stop=$45.88
POSITION: TMO PI - Apr. $45p (-41 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/tmo.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We consider many stocks for pre-announcement plays every week. We get information regarding upcoming announcements and other data that leads us to conclude a split announcement is coming. Even then, however, we have to be discriminating. We have to see a strong technical pattern as well, and thus we reject many potential candidates based on a weak technical position. Some we consider have announced, but have not fared well given their technical patterns were weak to begin with.
The key today is to find stocks in strong patterns or that are ready to rebound off support. A split announcement will amplify the move higher in these cases as we enjoy moves from strong leaders in position to run higher. We won't chase a stock in a poor technical position even if we know it is going to split; it simply won't do us any good, i.e. it won't make us any money to the upside. We could list all stocks we think are going to split, but again, that won't make us any money unless we are in an office pool as to what stocks will or won't announce a stock split.
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern and of course the strong earnings growth that put it in the pattern in the first place.
BA: Researching the date
BNI: Earnings were 1-23-07. Researching date.
CAH: Tentatively forecast for 4-26.07
CEC: Forecast 3-6-07
CLE: Tentatively forecast 3-15-07
FDX: Forecast 3-21-07
KSS: Forecast 3-1-07
POT: Tentatively set for third week in April
RL: Researching date.
RIMM: Tentatively set first week of April
VIVO: Forecast mid-February. Never announced.
YUM: Forecast 5-1-07
NEW PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 03/01/2007
EXC (Exelon--$66.01; +0.08; optionable): Utilities
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/exc.html
STATUS: Test breakout. EXC surged out of a 16 week double bottom with handle last Friday, running to 72 on the move. It reversed this week and tested, coming all the way back to the breakout point at 64 on the Thursday low before rebounding intraday to close flat. Pretty big test, but it held the breakout and left itself in position for a good do over. Looking for volume to accelerate again as EXC continues higher off this test.
Volume: 3.498M Avg Volume: 2.736M
BUY POINT: $66.58 Volume=4M Target=$74.90 Stop=$64.68
POSITION: EXC GM - July $65c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/exc.html
Play Date: 03/01/2007
DLTR (Dollar Tree--$34.37; +0.26; optionable): Discount variety stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dltr.html
STATUS: Breakout test. DLTR announced earnings on Wednesday and while it did not announce a split (we are a bit early), it is looking great and a run into the split range looks likely ahead. Nice break from a 20 week flat base to start February, a test, and now the earnings driving it back up. String upside volume when the market was suffering from a lot of downside volume. Money flow is surging higher ahead of price and we ar looking for price to follow it back up.
Volume: 3.067M Avg Volume: 1.189M
BUY POINT: $34.65 Volume=1.2M Target=$39.95 Stop=$33.05
POSITION: DQO HZ - Aug. $32.50c (70 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/dltr.html
Play Date: 03/01/2007
JCI (Johnson Controls--$94.68; +1.00; optionable): Auto controller systems
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jci.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. JCI made us some money on its prior run when it broke out from its 6 month reverse head and shoulders base and rallied up the 10 and 18 day EMA. It was a target given its success when the market started selling Tuesday, gapping lower. It tapped the 50 day EMA (91.65) and held, however, bouncing Thursday on even stronger volume. Excellent strength. Looking to move in as JCI continues higher.
Volume: 1.589M Avg Volume: 993.498K
BUY POINT: $95.35 Volume=1.5M Target=$103.95 Stop=$92.25
POSITION: JCI GS - July $95c (61 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/jci.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 02/22/2007
ASCA (Ameristar Casinos--$32.89; +0.47; optionable): Resorts and casinos
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/asca.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Gapped lower but rebounded for a gain Thursday, keeping the test alive and set up well for the next move higher. Just needs to show us some volume on the move. To recap: ASCA showed relative strength Tuesday, though it sold back it held the 18 day EMA on the low. That gave back the breakout from last week but it kept the stock well positioned to resume the move higher and continue to another new high. New buy point.
Volume: 363.008K Avg Volume: 300.521K
BUY POINT: $33.48 Volume=325K Target=$40.95 Stop=$31.55
POSITION: UWT FG - July $35c (52 delta) or UWT FF - July $30c (80 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/asca.html
Play Date: 02/28/2007
TALX (Talx Corp.--$33.95; -0.08; optionable): Payroll services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/talx.html
EARNINGS: Announced 1-24-07
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. Still holding solid at the 18 day EMA (33.56), not giving any ground as it holds the test. Looks super for the move higher. To recap: TALX is making the second test of its late January, earnings induced breakout from a 11 month cup with handle base. TALX started the second leg with a massive gap two weeks back that made us a nice chunk of change. It has tested back since, coming back to the 18 day EMA in a very orderly, relatively low volume test. Even in the Tuesday selling its volume was lower than the prior session and right at average. Wednesday TALX started to bounce on rising volume. Money flow is still way out in front of price. Nice. Looking for more volume as TALX moves higher.
Volume: 665.505K Avg Volume: 490.6K
BUY POINT: $34.41 Volume=900K Target=$39.65 Stop=$33.22
POSITION: TUB FG - July $35c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/talx.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
|
us stock market
top stock pick
|
