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Begin part 2 of 3
CONTINUING PLAYS
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LEGEND FOR CONTINUING PLAY TABLE
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: Asc Tri =Ascending triangle; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.)
Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; Dsc Tri=Descending triangle; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
PLAY STATUS: Buy not hit (stock has not hit buy point); Buy not issued (stock has hit buy point but did not enter due to weak volume, poor intraday action, poor market action); Current (ongoing play already entered); Entered today (entered the play that session); Exited (closed the position); Target hit (play hit initial target; will note if took all or partial gain or let run further); Trailing stop (exited using a trailing stop loss).
Upside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
ACLI 02/20 Cup hdl 35.04 -1.01 38.48 43.98 746K 532K 37.31
Finished the week at the 50 day SMA, experiencing overall
lighter volume during last week's fade. Best volume
of week was on the Thursday bounce. It is primed for
a move to 37-38 on the initial relief move.
ADBE 02/22 DB hdl 38.66 -0.60 41.32 47.95 6.4M 7.9M 39.64
Buy Not Hit. Suffered one bad day last week (Tuesday) when it fell below the 50 day MA on strong volume. Held support at 38 however. Still in the base but it has more work to do now. Dropping but will watch & put back on when it sets up once more.
AIR 02/06 DB hdl 28.87 -0.26 30.60 35.95 504K 680K 30.32
Current. Traded around the 50 day MA after the Tuesday gap lower.
No heavy selling as it holds near support. In good
position to bounce from here as has been its pattern
on this run higher.
ANST 02/28 Test BO 30.01 -0.69 29.65 34.65 143K 325K 28.48
Buy Not Hit.
ASCA 02/22 Cup hdl 32.11 -0.78 33.48 40.95 235K 325K 31.55
Buy Not Issued. Continues to show great relative strength, holding
support at 32 and in great position to rebound in an
interim market bounce.
BA 02/03 Test BO 87.03 -0.82 91.65 102.95 4.3M 5.8M 89.31
Current. Continues to trade around the 90 day MA (87.73), fading slightly Friday on lower volume. On a market bounce it needs to get thru 90 to show enough strength to hang on. A hold here is a higher low, but needs to bust up that overhead resistance.
CEC 02/20 PreAnn 41.98 -0.60 43.48 49.95 325K 250K 42.11
Buy Not Issued. Faded during the week but it was very modest. There
was distribution Tuesday (all stocks did this) & Friday.
Still well positioned to rebound from here as it holds
above the 50 day MA, making a higher low in its uptrend.
COG 03/01 PreSplt 66.25 -1.83 68.85 76.95 355K 700K 66.78
Buy Not Hit. Tough session for all energy. COG slid thru the 18
day EMA but on very low trade, holding above the Thursday
low. No distribution on this pullback so in good shape
to rebound as the market rebounds.
COG 02/13 PreAnn 66.25 -1.83 66.89 76.95 355K 833K 68.57
DIOD 02/22 Trnd Rv 35.67 -1.26 39.56 45.58 704K 500K 38.11
Exited. New closing low undercut the February range.
DLTR 03/01 PreAnn 34.26 -0.11 34.65 39.95 1.6M 1.2M 33.05
Buy Not Issued. Tried to run early but not enough dollars to push it
higher. Treemendous volume on its earnings report Thursday,
& still in excellent shape to branch out into a further
upside move in a market relief rally.
EXC 03/01 PreAnn 64.22 -1.79 66.21 74.60 5M 4M 63.68
Buy Not Hit. Not an exelont move Friday as EXC sold on rising trade,
unable to hold near support at the 10 day EMA. It completely
closed the late February gap & it did hold support
at 64, however, so will keep watching it for a bounce.
FDX 02/20 Rev HS 112.50 -1.66 120.32 134.95 1.6M 2.5M 117.36
Current. Slipped to the 50 day SMA on lower volume to close the week. Basically all gaps are filled at this point. In a market relief rally it needs to clear 118 to show it absolutely, positively has what it takes to deliver further upside.
HOC 02/26 Test BO 54.03 -1.38 56.98 65.75 509K 750K 54.95
Buy Not Hit. Not quite able to make the breakout as energy struggled
to end the week. Low volume fade Friday so not worried
about that drop. Just waiting to see if it can deliver
the upside from this still pretty solid pattern.
JCI 03/01 Test 50 95.57 +0.89 95.35 103.95 1.9M 1.5M 92.25
Buy Not Issued. Rallied on solid trade to 97.12 but then faded to close below the 10 day EMA as the afternoon wore on. Given that high to not so high intraday action we held off starting the position. If it moves back up thru the 10 day (95.61) & holds, okay then.
MSTR 02/14 Cup hdl 123.43 -1.82 126.05 135.85 199K 385K 121.65
Buy Not Issued. Held the 50 day EMA to close week. Tried breakout Monday, lost it Tuesday & tested 50 day on low volume to end week. Big picture: held up well. Can make an aggressive play in market relief bounce but have to reduce target. Big outlay for modest reward.
NKE 03/01 PreSplt 103.86 -1.43 105.67 115.00 1.4M 2M 102.95
Buy Not Issued. Tried to stretch the Thursday intraday test of the 50 day & reversal, but lost volume and altitude Friday. Still poised for some momentum upside in a market relief bounce but want to see it happen soon so it does not lose that Thursday momentum.
NTGR 02/17 Dbl btm 25.57 -0.52 28.63 34.32 1M 1.1M 27.68
Current. Faded thru the 90 day EMA to end the week but also held the February lows and those in Nov & Dec. Looking for a bounce off this level next week in a market relief bounce. Key test is 28 on that move. When it gets there we re-evaluate.
NX 01/23 Trnd Rv 38.89 -0.77 39.29 44.88 514K 500K 39.05
Current. Relatively tight range all week though Thursday was
wilder with a tap of the 50 day EMA and rebound to
positive. Friday it sagged w/commodities, but lower
volume. Holding up very well during the selling.
RIMM 02/24 Asc Bse 135.97 -4.94 145.31 159.95 8.1M 13M 142.22
Current.
RIMM 02/03 PreAnn 135.97 -4.94 135.96 154.89 8.1M 10M 142.22
Current. Faded on lower volume to close the week, still showing
relative strength to the market.
RL 02/15 Asc Bse 83.42 -1.33 85.55 96.45 881K 1.2M 85.21
Current. Disappointing move Friday as it slipped lower but on
low volume. Bigger picture it is still in a great uptrend
using the 50 day MA as support.
SSYS 03/01 Test BO 37.31 -1.15 38.75 44.95 169K 175K 36.88
Buy Not Issued. Could not extend the solid Friday bounce from the 10
day EMA but lower volume and held up well and set to
run in a market relief move.
SYK 02/22 FlyPlat 61.00 -0.37 64.03 73.42 1.7M 1.7M 61.91
Current. Held the 50 day EMA on the lows last, showing strong
volume on tests of that level. That shows buyers still
there. We still like it for a bounce from here after
this testing.
TALX 02/28 Test 18 33.35 -0.60 34.41 39.65 564K 900K 33.22
Buy Not Hit. Faded Friday but volume remained low. May try to fill
that mid-February gap higher but still want to be ready
to move in as it makes its bounce.
XTO 01/30 PreAnn 50.28 -1.54 52.32 59.89 3.8M 4.5M 51.31
Current. Held up well during the week but Friday was a tough session for energy and it closed at the week low. That still keeps it in its pattern, and that is a lot more than most stocks can claim this weekend.
Downside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
CRI 02/27 Put 23.45 -0.19 23.66 22.00 2M 750K 24.21
Buy Not Issued. Tried the 10 & 18 day EMA again on the Friday high and then faded to show a doji. Hung on all week near these levels, but still primed to fall & follow the weak money flow. High volume Friday shows churning below resistance, a good sign of a fall.
QDEL 02/26 Put 10.37 -0.27 10.94 9.57 491K 595K 11.57
Buy Not Issued. Looked for a rebound off those three dojis but it slipped
lower Friday on low volume. Will have to wait for a
bounce at this point because it is extended a bit downside.
SBUX 02/17 Put 29.88 -0.51 32.65 30.92 14M 7.6M 30.22
Current. Tough week for SBUX, good week for the play. SBUX has gapped lower 4 of 5 sessions & that indicates the downside is getting overdone. Ready to take the rest of the gain if it shows some strengthening. Until then just letting it continue lower.
SONC 02/27 Put 21.27 -0.27 21.35 20.00 572K 625K 21.59
Current. Wild ride Thursday from low to high, but then gapped
lower Friday and looks to continue the move lower after
the breakdown from the 200 day MA.
SPY 02/28 Put 138.67 -1.84 140.76 138.00 162M 70M 139.25
Gapped lower and a new closing low for this leg. Some
support at 138, and if it hits there again and starts
to rebound again the market is likely to try its relief
rebound as well.
TMO 03/01 HdShldr 44.27 -1.29 45.02 43.58 4.4M 3.5M 44.89
Entered today. Thumped lower, dropping sharply from the 90 day MA
as TMO continues its breakdown from the head and shoulders
top.
End part 2 of 3
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