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Begin part 2 of 3
CONTINUING PLAY TABLE:
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LEGEND
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: Asc Tri=Ascending triangle/wedge; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.)
Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; Dsc Tri=Descending triangle/wedge; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
PLAY STATUS: Buy not hit (stock has not hit buy point); Buy not issued (stock has hit buy point but did not enter due to weak volume, poor intraday action, poor market action); Current (ongoing play already entered); Entered today (entered the play that session); Exited (closed the position); Target hit (play hit initial target; will note if took all or partial gain or let run further); Trailing stop (exited using a trailing stop loss).
Upside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
ACLI 02/20 Cup hdl 35.04 -1.01 38.48 43.98 746K 532K 37.31
Finished the week at the 50 day SMA, experiencing overall
lighter volume during last week's fade. Best volume
of week was on the Thursday bounce. It is primed for
a move to 37-38 on the initial relief move.
ADBE 02/22 DB hdl 38.66 -0.60 41.32 47.95 6.4M 7.9M 39.64
Buy Not Hit. Suffered one bad day last week (Tuesday) when it fell below the 50 day MA on strong volume. Held support at 38 however. Still in the base but it has more work to do now. Dropping but will watch & put back on when it sets up once more.
BRCD 03/01 Cup hdl 9.08 +0.07 9.45 11.68 19M 15M 8.79
Buy Not Hit. Excellent relative strength all week, holding its range
& posting a modest gain Friday on the 2nd best volume
of the week. Excellent position to break out in a market
rebound.
DIOD 02/22 Trnd Rv 35.67 -1.26 39.56 45.58 704K 500K 38.11
Exited. New closing low undercut the February range.
EXC 03/01 PreAnn 64.22 -1.79 66.21 74.60 5M 4M 63.68
Buy Not Hit. Not an exelont move Friday as EXC sold on rising trade,
unable to hold near support at the 10 day EMA. It completely
closed the late February gap & it did hold support
at 64, however, so will keep watching it for a bounce.
FDX 02/20 Rev HS 112.50 -1.66 120.32 134.95 1.6M 2.5M 117.36
Current. Slipped to the 50 day SMA on lower volume to close the week. Basically all gaps are filled at this point. In a market relief rally it needs to clear 118 to show it absolutely, positively has what it takes to deliver further upside.
GFIG 02/14 Test BO 59.48 -2.24 67.77 75.75 317K 300K 65.08
Exited. Sold through the 90 day MA after showing promise at
that level.
HLTH 02/28 Test 18 14.60 -0.19 15.11 18.25 3.1M 8M 14.38
Buy Not Hit. Ended the week holding above support at 14.50. Still
poised for a healthy bounce in a market relief rally.
HOC 02/26 Test BO 54.03 -1.38 56.98 65.75 509K 750K 54.95
Buy Not Hit. Not quite able to make the breakout as energy struggled
to end the week. Low volume fade Friday so not worried
about that drop. Just waiting to see if it can deliver
the upside from this still pretty solid pattern.
ICON 02/28 Test 18 20.50 -0.85 21.32 25.00 1.1M 1.4M 20.12
Buy Not Hit. Fell through some support at 21 on Friday but closed above the 50 day EMA (20.30) where it has found support on its prior two bounces. Thus still set to move in if it can show a strong bounce from here in a market relief move.
KNOL 01/09 Asc Bse 14.29 -0.21 11.38 13.95 222K 165K 14.12
Never gave up the 18 day EMA all week as KNOL used
the market selling to consolidate its gains.
MSTR 02/14 Cup hdl 123.43 -1.82 126.05 135.85 199K 385K 121.65
Buy Not Issued. Held the 50 day EMA to close week. Tried breakout Monday, lost it Tuesday & tested 50 day on low volume to end week. Big picture: held up well. Can make an aggressive play in market relief bounce but have to reduce target. Big outlay for modest reward.
NTGR 02/17 Dbl btm 25.57 -0.52 28.63 34.32 1M 1.1M 27.68
Current. Faded thru the 90 day EMA to end the week but also held the February lows and those in Nov & Dec. Looking for a bounce off this level next week in a market relief bounce. Key test is 28 on that move. When it gets there we re-evaluate.
NUAN 02/28 Test BO 11.46 -0.12 14.38 17.65 1.6M 5.5M 13.77
Buy Not Hit. Big shakeout and recovery Thursday and then a quiet
doji Friday on the 18 day EMA. Held its ground so looking
for some upside in a market relief move.
PETD 02/28 Test BO 49.88 -1.97 52.15 60.95 82K 180K 51.08
Buy Not Issued. Tough session for PETD on Friday as it fell through
the 18 day EMA & the Thursday doji. Will watch to see
if it can set back up.
PTNR 02/12 Test BO 13.37 -0.10 14.30 16.97 257K 344K 14.34
Current. Tapped the 50 day EMA twice last week and rebounded
Thursday off that level. Holding up bue needs to deliver
a break above 14 on a market relief bounce.
RATE 02/14 Test BO 38.23 -2.09 42.15 51.45 348K 500K 39.45
Buy Not Hit. Fell sharply through the 50 day EMA. Dropping.
RIMM 02/24 Asc Bse 135.97 -4.94 145.31 159.95 8.1M 13M 142.22
Current.
RIMM 02/03 PreAnn 135.97 -4.94 135.96 154.89 8.1M 10M 142.22
Current. Faded on lower volume to close the week, still showing
relative strength to the market.
RVSN 02/15 Test BO 22.00 -0.29 22.54 26.95 83K 220K 21.32
Current. Great Wednesday blast higher and a modest low volume
fade to close the week, holding the 10 day EMA on very
low volume. Excellent set up for a market relief bounce.
TALX 02/28 Test 18 33.35 -0.60 34.41 39.65 564K 900K 33.22
Buy Not Hit. Faded Friday but volume remained low. May try to fill
that mid-February gap higher but still want to be ready
to move in as it makes its bounce.
VSAT 02/07 Test BO 32.62 -0.99 33.75 39.98 183K 250K 34.32
Current. Could not hold the line to end the week, slipping through
the 18 day EMA on lower trade. Has to clear 34 in the
market relief bounce.
WNR 02/22 Cup hdl 30.67 +0.57 28.25 33.89 1.3M 450K 29.38
Current. Surged to 31.98 on the Friday high on huge trade as
WNR continued its breakout. Not bad for an energy stock
in a weak sector Friday. Don't like the pullback off
the high but overall good action for the week.
WOOF 02/21 Cup hdl 36.62 -0.13 37.25 42.89 398K 575K 35.65
Buy Not Issued. Tapped the 18 day EMA on the low and held that near
support once more. Gap is filled. Ready to rebound
on a market rebound.
Downside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
BEBE 02/27 Put 17.83 -0.71 18.20 16.05 749K 1.2M 18.49
Current. Like the reversal and close below 18, the level that
acted as some support in early February.
CHRS 02/27 Put 12.05 -0.37 12.10 11.09 1.2M 975K 12.48
Entered today. Rising, above avg volume as CHRS broke lower through
the recent lows, hitting a new low on this leg as it
resumes its downtrend.
DIA 02/28 Put 120.96 -1.48 121.36 119.25 18M 9M 121.65
Current. Turned back down to a new closing low on this leg.
Expecting another blow lower early this week. If it
holds 120 again as it did Thursday we need to be cognizant
that may mean it is ready to bounce for the interim rally.
HGT 02/12 Put 24.25 -0.39 23.97 22.65 120K 285K 24.65
Buy Not Issued. Still hanging on as it has bounced off the 24.10ish level the past three weeks. That tenacity at that level suggests we need to see if fall thru there before we go into the downside position.
MSFT 02/24 Put 27.76 -0.33 28.71 27.61 63M 64M 28.15
Current. Faded to a new closing low for this leg on Friday.
No precipitous plunge but continued the steady decline
it has shown since the Vista release hype.
QDEL 02/26 Put 10.37 -0.27 10.94 9.57 491K 595K 11.57
Buy Not Issued. Looked for a rebound off those three dojis but it slipped
lower Friday on low volume. Will have to wait for a
bounce at this point because it is extended a bit downside.
QLGC 02/05 Put 17.12 -0.49 18.18 16.92 2.7M 3.8M 17.38
Target Hit. Dropped down toward the Thursday low, tried to hold,
but slipped a bit lower. Given the March options &
potential for a rebound we took some solid 47% gain
off the table. Some support at 17 that is trying to hold.
SBUX 02/17 Put 29.88 -0.51 32.65 30.92 14M 7.6M 30.22
Current. Tough week for SBUX, good week for the play. SBUX has gapped lower 4 of 5 sessions & that indicates the downside is getting overdone. Ready to take the rest of the gain if it shows some strengthening. Until then just letting it continue lower.
SONC 02/27 Put 21.27 -0.27 21.35 20.00 572K 625K 21.59
Current. Wild ride Thursday from low to high, but then gapped
lower Friday and looks to continue the move lower after
the breakdown from the 200 day MA.
SPY 02/28 Put 138.67 -1.84 140.76 138.00 162M 70M 139.25
Gapped lower and a new closing low for this leg. Some
support at 138, and if it hits there again and starts
to rebound again the market is likely to try its relief
rebound as well.
STEC 02/27 Put 8.25 -0.41 8.91 7.70 1.2M 1.4M 8.42
Fell to close at the February lows. Not much volume
so we anticipate a bounce from here.
TMO 03/01 HdShldr 44.27 -1.29 45.02 43.58 4.4M 3.5M 44.89
Entered today. Thumped lower, dropping sharply from the 90 day MA
as TMO continues its breakdown from the head and shuolders
top.
VIX 03/01 Put 18.61 +2.79 17.72 14.05 0 0 18.55
Buy Not Issued. VIX bounced up to a new closing high on this leg as
the S&P sold off. Once the S&P starts a rebound it
is going to fall stone-like toward 13 - 14.
End part 2 of 3
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