|
|
us stock market, stock recommendation
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
New Plays:
Upside: Looking at some more solid upside plays that held up nicely during the selling and are ready to move higher in an overall market relief rally.
Play Date: 03/03/2007
BTJ (Bolt Technology--$23.43; -1.19; no options): Seismic energy sources for use in oil and gas seismic exploration
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/btj.html
STATUS: Test breakout. BTJ broke higher late February from a 10 week reverse head and shoulders base. During last week's selling it came back to test, filling the gap. It was very orderly in its selling, however, fading back on lower and lower trade. Excellent set up for the next break higher and a new move to a new all-time high.
Volume: 188K Avg Volume: 194.905K
BUY POINT: $24.95 Volume=300K Target=$29.88 Stop=$23.22
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/btj.html
Play Date: 03/03/2007
CYTC (Cytyc--$30.17; -0.09; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cytc.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-7-07
STATUS: Breakout test. CYTC barely paid mind to the selling last week, fading modestly the past two weeks to test the early February breakout (earnings driven). It held the 18 day EMA (30.02) on the lows; picture perfect test. Solid base as well, an 11 month cup with handle. Excellent money flow. Top earnings growth rates to go along with the pattern. Ready for a break higher as the market rebounds in relief.
Volume: 844.585K Avg Volume: 871.982K
BUY POINT: $30.65 Volume=1.1M Target=$34.95 Stop=$29.77
POSITION: YQK HF - Aug. $30c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cytc.html
Play Date: 03/03/2007
UCTT (Ultra Clean Holdings--$15.58; -0.63; no options): Gas & liquid delivery systems for semiconductor chip makers
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/uctt.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-12-07
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Earnings did not help UCTT out a lot, but the key was it kept working on its base, forming the second leg of a short but sweet 8 week base. Used the 50 day EMA (14.30) as support, a very good indication the buyers have stayed with it. Strong money flow to match a strong technical pattern that is ready to send UCTT off on another all-time high. Excellent action in a tough week for the market, and the test sets up the next run.
Volume: 515.477K Avg Volume: 517.64K
BUY POINT: $16.41 Volume=725K Target=$19.45 Stop=$15.26
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/uctt.html
Play Date: 03/03/2007
VCLK (Valueclick--$25.48; -0.87; optionable): Internet advertising services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vclk.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-21-07
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. VCLK made us some great money on its last run. After gapping higher on earnings it faded the past week in the market selling, but it held support at the 50 day EMA (25.43), a key support level where the big money buys more or decides to pass. VCLK has some top fundamental growth rates, and looking for the big money to move in as the market starts a relief rally. Excellent money flow is surging higher ahead of price even with this price pullback.
Volume: 1.887M Avg Volume: 1.928M
BUY POINT: $26.87 Volume=2.9M Target=$31.95 Stop=$25.32
POSITION: QCS FE - June $25c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/vclk.html
Downside:
Play Date: 03/03/2007
AEOS (American Eagle Outfitters--$29.80; -1.02; optionable): Teen apparel stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aeos.html
EARNINGS: 3-7-07
STATUS: Head and shoulders. AEOS has formed a big 5 month rounded top, the last part a head and shoulders peak. It broke lower Tuesday in the general market selling, tried to hold the line, but then cracked Friday below some support at 30. It looks ready to fall into earnings, and earnings may give it even more downside impetus. Looking to move in as it continues lower. A move to the target lands a 44% gain. If it breaks the 200 day SMA (27.76) we will let it roll on down.
Volume: 4.691M Avg Volume: 4.06M
BUY POINT: $29.68 Volume=4M Target=$28.05 Stop=$30.48
POSITION: AQU PF - Apr. $30p (-44 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/aeos.html
Play Date: 03/03/2007
PHRM (Pharmion--$25.31; -0.69; optionable): Drug manufacturers
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/phrm.html
EARNINGS: 2-21-07
STATUS: Head and shoulders. Ugly break lower Tuesday as PHRM fell below the 90 day MA (26.87) after its 7 week topping pattern. It tried to hold the line at 26ish Wednesday and Thursday but was heading lower Friday. Looking for a test down toward the 200 day SMA (22.27). Our initial target is higher; don't want to try and stretch it too far. If it is selling hard, however, we will let it run toward the 200 day. A move to the initial target lands a 42%ish gain.
Volume: 731.058K Avg Volume: 409.463K
BUY POINT: $25.18 Volume=600K Target=$23.65 Stop=$26.32
POSITION: JUF PE - Apr. $25p (-42 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/phrm.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Play Date: 03/01/2007
BRCD (Brocade Communications--$9.08; +0.07; optionable): Data storage networking and solutions
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/brcd.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Nice hold Friday, rising modestly on some strong volume. Held up exceedingly well last week and set to lead in a market relief rally. To recap: With the late 2006 run BRCD cleared a series of peaks that held it in check since 2003. After that run it needed a rest and it formed the current 13 week base over the prior peaks, using the 50 day EMA as support. It broke higher Tuesday on very strong earnings, testing back the past two sessions, holding the 10 day EMA on the Thursday low. It rebounded from that test, doing so on lower volume. Looks ready to continue the move but want to see strong volume as it jumps back up.
Volume: 19.348M Avg Volume: 10.196M
BUY POINT: $9.45 Volume=15M Target=$11.68 Stop=$8.79
POSITION: BQB GL - July $9c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/brcd.html
Play Date: 02/28/2007
NUAN (Nuance Communications--$13.97; -0.12; optionable): Voice activated services for communications, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nuan.html
STATUS: Test breakout. Got wild Thursday but rebounded, held the 18 day EMA Friday, showing a doji. Set up well for the continued move higher. Just need to see it making some upside hay on some volume. To recap: NUAN surged out of its 9 month cup with handle base to start February, surging to 15 on the run from the breakout point at 12.50. It gapped lower Tuesday in the selling but volume was not out of hand and it held the 18 day EMA on the close. Wednesday it fell below that level but rallied back to hold it on the close with lower but still strong, above average volume. May take some more time to set up, but showing excellent relative strength. Want to see strong volume as it surges back up.
Volume: 1.563M Avg Volume: 3.226M
BUY POINT: $14.38 Volume=5.5M Target=$17.65 Stop=$13.77
POSITION: SSQ GV - July $12.50c (73 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/nuan.html
Play Date: 02/21/2007
WOOF (VCA Antech--$36.62; -0.13; optionable): Animal clinics
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/woof.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-21-07
STATUS: Breakout test. WOOF continues holding above the 18 day EMA (36.32), clinging to the breakout from its 17 week cup with handle base. Big gap higher on earnings, then sold back last week with the majority of stocks but held the pattern. Excellent money flow continues and looking for WOOF to rebound from this pullback after hitting a new all-time high 2 weeks back.
Volume: 397.514K Avg Volume: 399.768K
BUY POINT: $37.25 Volume=575K Target=$42.89 Stop=$35.65
POSITION: QWF FG - July $35c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/woof.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
|
us stock market
stock recommendation
|
