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us stock market, stock split
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
New Plays:
Upside: Again we are putting some more upside on the report in anticipation of the relief bounce from this selling.
New Pre-Split Plays:
Play Date: 03/03/2007
GES (Guess? Inc.--$79.93; -1.91; optionable): Apparel stores. Splits 2:1 on 3-13-07
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/ges.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-14-07
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. Gapped higher on the earnings and the split in mid-February. It was testing back to start last week and then gapped sharply lower Tuesday as the retailers were thrown out en masse on fears the consumer would fold. It is not going to because jobs are solid and thus confidence is high. In any event, GES filled the gap on Tuesday and then rebounded the same session. It worked laterally to end the week, pretty much immune to the other issues. Looking for a hold here and then a bounce as the market starts its relief rally. GES is well-positioned to give us plenty of upside in that market move.
Volume: 614.6K Avg Volume: 779.598K
BUY POINT: $81.88 Volume=845K Target=$91.45 Stop=$79.45
POSITION: GES FP - June $80c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ges.html
New Post-Split Plays:
Play Date: 03/03/2007
CYTC (Cytyc--$30.17; -0.09; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cytc.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-7-07
STATUS: Breakout test. CYTC barely paid mind to the selling last week, fading modestly the past two weeks to test the early February breakout (earnings driven). It held the 18 day EMA (30.02) on the lows; picture perfect test. Solid base as well, an 11 month cup with handle. Excellent money flow. Top earnings growth rates to go along with the pattern. Ready for a break higher as the market rebounds in relief.
Volume: 844.585K Avg Volume: 871.982K
BUY POINT: $30.65 Volume=1.1M Target=$34.95 Stop=$29.77
POSITION: YQK HF - Aug. $30c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cytc.html
Play Date: 03/03/2007
VSEA (Varian Semiconductor--$46.29; -1.29; optionable): Chip equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vsea.html
STATUS: Breakout test. VSEA has established itself as the leader in its sector. Strong move higher in mid-February on some solid earnings news broke VSEA out from a short 7 week base. Nice rally to 50, and you would expect it to get roughed up in the selling. It was lower but showed excellent relative strength, closing near the 18 day EMA on Friday and just above some support at 46. Looking for this to hold and for VSEA to bounce from here as the overall market posts a relief rally.
Volume: 1.371M Avg Volume: 1.48M
BUY POINT: $48.05 Volume=2M Target=$54.95 Stop=$45.31
POSITION: UES EI - May $45c (61 delta, low OI) or UES HJ - Aug. $50c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/vsea.html
Leader: Will be a split candidate soon
Play Date: 03/03/2007
BWLD (Buffalo Wild Wings--$54.70; -1.44; optionable): Restaurants selling very domestic food, beer
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bwld.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-15-07
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. BWLD gapped out from a 6 month base in late October 2006 and surged higher. It needed to rest, and it has put in a volatile 14 week lateral move, the last 6 weeks a double bottom with handle, coming back last week to test and hold the convergence of the 18, 50, and 90 day MA from 53 to 54. Solid volume Thursday as BWLD attempted a move off this level. It could not hold the move Friday, but volume was much lower as it tested. Set up well to hold and lead in a market relief rally that is setting up.
Volume: 190.706K Avg Volume: 319.497K
BUY POINT: $56.25 Volume=450K Target=$63.85 Stop=$54.78
POSITION: BQU FK - June $55c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bwld.html
Downside:
Play Date: 03/03/2007
AEOS (American Eagle Outfitters--$29.80; -1.02; optionable): Teen apparel stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aeos.html
EARNINGS: 3-7-07
STATUS: Head and shoulders. AEOS has formed a big 5 month rounded top, the last part a head and shoulders peak. It broke lower Tuesday in the general market selling, tried to hold the line, but then cracked Friday below some support at 30. It looks ready to fall into earnings, and earnings may give it even more downside impetus. Looking to move in as it continues lower. A move to the target lands a 44% gain. If it breaks the 200 day SMA (27.76) we will let it roll on down.
Volume: 4.691M Avg Volume: 4.06M
BUY POINT: $29.68 Volume=4M Target=$28.05 Stop=$30.48
POSITION: AQU PF - Apr. $30p (-44 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/aeos.html
Play Date: 03/03/2007
PHRM (Pharmion--$25.31; -0.69; optionable): Drug manufacturers
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/phrm.html
EARNINGS: 2-21-07
STATUS: Head and shoulders. Ugly break lower Tuesday as PHRM fell below the 90 day MA (26.87) after its 7 week topping pattern. It tried to hold the line at 26ish Wednesday and Thursday but was heading lower Friday. Looking for a test down toward the 200 day SMA (22.27). Our initial target is higher; don't want to try and stretch it too far. If it is selling hard, however, we will let it run toward the 200 day. A move to the initial target lands a 42%ish gain.
Volume: 731.058K Avg Volume: 409.463K
BUY POINT: $25.18 Volume=600K Target=$23.65 Stop=$26.32
POSITION: JUF PE - Apr. $25p (-42 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/phrm.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We consider many stocks for pre-announcement plays every week. We get information regarding upcoming announcements and other data that leads us to conclude a split announcement is coming. Even then, however, we have to be discriminating. We have to see a strong technical pattern as well, and thus we reject many potential candidates based on a weak technical position. Some we consider have announced, but have not fared well given their technical patterns were weak to begin with.
The key today is to find stocks in strong patterns or that are ready to rebound off support. A split announcement will amplify the move higher in these cases as we enjoy moves from strong leaders in position to run higher. We won't chase a stock in a poor technical position even if we know it is going to split; it simply won't do us any good, i.e. it won't make us any money to the upside. We could list all stocks we think are going to split, but again, that won't make us any money unless we are in an office pool as to what stocks will or won't announce a stock split.
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern and of course the strong earnings growth that put it in the pattern in the first place.
BA: Researching the date
BNI: Has to set back up
CAH: Tentatively forecast for 4-26-07
CEC: Forecast 3-6-07. This is the week for CEC and despite the market selling it is set up well.
CLE: Tentatively forecast 3-15-07. Struggling to hang on below the 90 day MA.
DLTR: Announced earnings 2-28-07. Researching the date.
EXC: Researching date
FDX: Forecast 3-21-07
JCI: Researching the date
KSS: Forecast 3-1-07. Strong earnings jumped it back up off the Thursday test of the 200 day SMA.
POT: Tentatively set for third week in April. Trying to hold the 50 day MA.
RL: Researching date.
RIMM: Tentatively set first week of April
YUM: Forecast 5-1-07. Needs a lot of work to set back up.
CONTINUING PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 03/01/2007
DLTR (Dollar Tree--$34.26; -0.11; optionable): Discount variety stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dltr.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Tried to extend the run Friday, but could not hold it. Still set up well to lead higher in a market relief rally. The worries regarding the economy helped the low dollar discount stores. To recap: DLTR announced earnings last Wednesday and while it did not announce a split (we are a bit early), it is looking great and a run into the split range looks likely ahead. Nice break from a 20 week flat base to start February, a test, and now the earnings driving it back up. String upside volume when the market was suffering from a lot of downside volume. Money flow is surging higher ahead of price and we are looking for price to follow it back up.
Volume: 1.622M Avg Volume: 1.189M
BUY POINT: $34.65 Volume=1.2M Target=$39.95 Stop=$33.05
POSITION: DQO HZ - Aug. $32.50c (70 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/dltr.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 02/28/2007
ANST (Ansoft--$30.01; -0.69; optionable): ITS software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/anst.html
EARNINGS: Announce 2-13-07
STATUS: Breakout test. ANST came back a bit further, sliding through the 18 day EMA late in the week but still holding the breakout from its 18 week ascending base. It tapped the 50 day EMA (29.25) on the Thursday low and rebounded sharply. Looking for it to hold near this level and then start back up in the market relief move.
Volume: 143.328K Avg Volume: 190.857K
BUY POINT: $29.65 Volume=325K Target=$34.65 Stop=$28.48
POSITION: UZD GF - July $30c (63 delta, 57 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/anst.html
Play Date: 02/22/2007
ASCA (Ameristar Casinos--$32.11; -0.78; optionable): Resorts and casinos
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/asca.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Sold modestly Friday on low volume as ASCA continues its effort to set up another breakout attempt. It broke higher two weeks back from its 11 week base but the selling last week pushed it back to the top of the pattern. Looking for it to hold here and resume the move higher. To recap: ASCA showed relative strength Tuesday, though it sold back it held the 18 day EMA on the low. That gave back the breakout from last week but it kept the stock well positioned to resume the move higher and continue to another new high. New buy point.
Volume: 234.674K Avg Volume: 305.778K
BUY POINT: $33.48 Volume=325K Target=$40.95 Stop=$31.55
POSITION: UWT FG - July $35c (52 delta) or UWT FF - July $30c (80 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/asca.html
Play Date: 03/01/2007
SSYS (Stratasys--$37.31; -1.15; optionable): Computer peripherals (3-D printing systems)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/ssys.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Faded back Friday on lower volume, unable to hold the solid Thursday break higher off the 10 day EMA (37.04). Excellent relative strength in the weak market, holding its breakout and ready for the next leg. To recap: SSYS gapped out of a long, solid 9 month cup with handle in mid-February. It came back the past week with the market selling, but volume was very low and it held near support at the 18 day EMA on the Wednesday low and then rebounding. Thursday it was rallying on strong volume with a strong move. Money flow is running higher ahead of price. Showing great relative strength. Ready to move in as it continues higher.
Volume: 169.276K Avg Volume: 115.468K
BUY POINT: $38.75 Volume=175K Target=$44.95 Stop=$36.88
POSITION: QQG FG - July $35c (73 delta, 72 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ssys.html
Play Date: 02/28/2007
TALX (Talx Corp.--$33.35; -0.60; optionable): Payroll services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/talx.html
EARNINGS: Announced 1-24-07
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. Faded Friday on very low volume, slipping just below the 18 day EMA (33.54) as it continues testing the mid-February gap higher. Biding its time for the next move, waiting on the market to start its relief bounce. To recap: TALX is making the second test of its late January, earnings induced breakout from a 11 month cup with handle base. TALX started the second leg with a massive gap two weeks back that made us a nice chunk of change. It has tested back since, coming back to the 18 day EMA in a very orderly, relatively low volume test. Even in the Tuesday selling its volume was lower than the prior session and right at average. Wednesday TALX started to bounce on rising volume. Money flow is still way out in front of price. Nice. Looking for more volume as TALX moves higher.
Volume: 563.736K Avg Volume: 511.185K
BUY POINT: $34.41 Volume=900K Target=$39.65 Stop=$33.22
POSITION: TUB FG - July $35c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/talx.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
stock split
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