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us stock market, stock watch
Begin part 2 of 3
CONTINUING PLAY TABLE:
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LEGEND
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: Asc Tri=Ascending triangle/wedge; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.)
Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; Dsc Tri=Descending triangle/wedge; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
PLAY STATUS: Buy not hit (stock has not hit buy point); Buy not issued (stock has hit buy point but did not enter due to weak volume, poor intraday action, poor market action); Current (ongoing play already entered); Entered today (entered the play that session); Exited (closed the position); Target hit (play hit initial target; will note if took all or partial gain or let run further); Trailing stop (exited using a trailing stop loss).
Upside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
ACLI 02/20 Cup hdl 34.34 -0.70 38.48 43.98 507K 532K 37.31
Slipped below the 50 day MA on the close. Light volume
and still support at 34, but that has to bounce it
over the next session or two.
BRCD 03/01 Cup hdl 9.43 +0.35 9.55 11.77 29M 15M 8.77
Entered today. Strong volume as BRCD surged to 9.95 on the high. Backed off more than half the gain but definitely a move that was worth putting some money into. Started the position and will look at how this move pans out to see when we want to commit more.
BTJ 03/03 Test BO 21.70 -1.73 24.95 29.88 254K 300K 23.22
Buy Not Hit. Tough day for energy as oil was down and BTJ bolted lower on rising, above avg volume. Held the 50 day EMA on the low and will see if it can rebound but dropping for now to see if it can hold and recover after this distribution.
CYTC 03/03 Test BO 29.90 -0.27 30.65 34.95 1M 1.1M 29.77
Buy Not Hit. Slipped through the 18 day on the close but still in
the test. Don't want to get too aggressive & buy too
early. Let it show the strong break higher before we
jump in. Want to see strong move on strong volume.
FDX 02/20 Rev HS 111.17 -1.33 120.32 134.95 1.7M 2.5M 117.36
Current. Gapped lower to the 200 day MA (110.40), managing a
rebound to fill the gap. It could not hold it all into
the close. After the gap looking for the 200 day MA
to hold for a relief move.
HLTH 02/28 Test 18 14.44 -0.16 15.11 18.25 2.5M 8M 14.38
Buy Not Hit. Gapped lower but on very low volume and it held the
recent lows. Still in the same range of this pullback
and still looking for it to rebound on volume. Just
be patient and let it show us the move.
HOC 02/26 Test BO 52.85 -1.18 56.98 65.75 915K 750K 54.95
Buy Not Hit. Volume jumped above average as HOC gapped lower to
some support at 52. It held up well but the past two
sessions for energy have hurt. Will see if it can hold
here and set back up. Will watch but dropping for now.
KNOL 01/09 Asc Bse 14.19 -0.10 11.38 13.95 169K 165K 14.12
Still holding the 18 day EAM, showing a low volume
doji Monday. Looks to be just resting right now.
MSTR 02/14 Cup hdl 122.30 -1.12 125.45 135.85 184K 385K 121.45
Buy Not Issued. Modest lower volume fade to close at the 50 day SMA. Rather orderly test compared to the market as MSTR bides its time and looks for an opening to exploded higher. Moved the buy point but as with the other plays, need to see a definitive move on volume.
NTGR 02/17 Dbl btm 25.73 +0.16 28.63 34.32 652K 1.1M 27.68
Current. Gapped lower but rebounded to close in the recent range.
This is where it has to make its rebound move.
NUAN 02/28 Test BO 13.65 -0.32 14.38 17.65 3M 5.5M 13.77
Buy Not Hit. Slipped through the 18 day EMA, unable to hold the Thursday rebound from the open lower. Not dropping yet. Will see if it can hold here (it is above the Thursday low) and give the break higher. It is holding up well in a weak tape.
PTNR 02/12 Test BO 13.14 -0.23 14.30 16.97 309K 344K 14.34
Current. Gapped lower but held the 50 day EMA as volume started
to rise. This is where it has to make its rebound &
when it does it has to clear 14. If it gets there &
stalls we close it.
RIMM 02/24 Asc Bse 134.52 -1.44 145.31 159.95 9.6M 13M 142.22
Current. Gapped lower but held the 90 day EMA on the low and recovered to close above the 50 day EMA (133.40) on rising trade. That shows buyers stepping in on the low to drive it higher. Restatements in earnings re options grants was the culprit.
RIMM 02/03 PreAnn 134.52 -1.44 135.96 154.89 9.6M 10M 142.22
Current.
RVSN 02/15 Test BO 21.76 -0.24 22.54 26.95 135K 220K 21.32
Current. Not bad action at all, gapping slightly lower to the
18 day EMA and showing a hammer doji on continued below
avg volume. Excellent shape, holding given the selling.
TALX 02/28 Test 18 32.53 -0.82 33.47 38.65 324K 900K 31.13
Buy Not Hit. Filling the gap, unable to hold the 18 day EMA. Serious support at 32. We will see if it holds there and delivers the bounce we are looking for as the stock is still in solid shape. Moving the buy point to accommodate this pattern change.
UCTT 03/03 DB hdl 15.71 +0.13 16.41 19.45 589K 725K 15.26
Buy Not Hit. Tapped the 18 day EMA on the low and posted a gain
on rising, avg volume. Excellent action in the handle
of this pattern. Just be patient and let it finish
the test & show the break higher.
VCLK 03/03 Test 50 25.01 -0.47 26.87 31.95 2.3M 2.9M 25.32
Buy Not Hit. Gapped modestly lower below the 50 day EMA (25.41), rallied back, but closed back where it started. Still holding and still in shape to move. Just going to watch and see if it can give us the break higher. No pressure; just show us the move.
VSAT 02/07 Test BO 31.88 -0.74 33.75 39.98 170K 250K 34.32
Current. Gapped lower to the 50 day MA and bounced of that level. Could not hold the intraday recovery, tracking market's action. Held 50 day on the close, however, and thus a good point for it to rebound as it continues to show overall good relative strength.
WNR 02/22 Cup hdl 29.55 -1.12 28.25 33.89 729K 450K 29.38
Current. Gapped lower as energy was under pressure, but held
the line above the 10 day EMA, showing a doji. Still
in solid shape as it tests.
WOOF 02/21 Cup hdl 35.64 -0.98 37.25 42.89 296K 575K 35.65
Buy Not Issued. Slid through support at 36 as it started to bark at
us. Going to let it make the test and see how it looks
when it is finished growling around.
Downside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
AEOS 03/03 HdShldr 28.87 -0.93 29.68 28.05 5.3M 4M 30.48
Buy Not Issued. The idea was right but AEOS was a bit too agreeable
as it gapped lower and did not give us any room to
work with it.
BEBE 02/27 Put 17.36 -0.47 18.20 16.05 829K 1.2M 17.69
Current. Volume edged higher as BEBE posted a solid decline
in our downside play. Very good negative action as
it seeks the January lows near 17 as the next milepost
in this decline.
CHRS 02/27 Put 11.69 -0.36 12.10 11.09 1.1M 975K 12.04
Current. Gapped lower and closed on the session low. Volume
still average, but the decline is very nice, just what
we are looking for. Another good push lower & we look
at taking some gain.
DIA 02/28 Put 120.30 -0.66 121.36 119.25 16M 9M 120.72
Current. Gapped lower, rallied back, but then gave it all back
to close at session low. Still trying to bottom at
120ish from some October and November price turns.
HGT 02/12 Put 23.57 -0.68 23.72 22.25 196K 285K 24.02
Entered today. Finally got the clear break lower and it came on sharply
higher volume. Now it looks ready for one of its classic
meltdowns as seen starting in December after that test
of the 50 day MA just as this one tested the 50 day MA.
MSFT 02/24 Put 27.54 -0.21 28.71 27.61 56M 64M 28.15
Target Hit. Gapped lower and that gave us the target and a solid
66% gain on the options ($100/contract). Thanks for
the easy money Mr. Softee. Now we let it bounce & see
if it gives us the play again a la SBUX.
PHRM 03/03 Put 25.07 -0.24 25.18 23.65 653K 600K 26.32
Buy Not Issued. Gapped lower and traded both up and down from there. Decided to leave it along for this session as there was a real battle ongoing between the buyers & sellers. Will watch & see how it shakes out but a test of 26 would be a better entry after this action.
QLGC 02/05 Put 16.90 -0.21 18.18 16.92 2.8M 3.8M 17.38
Current. Gapped lower & put in a good attempt at rebounding, but the afternoon selling bit it like a charley horse and it rolled over to close at the session low. Letting the remaining positions continue lower as long as they will.
SBUX 02/17 Put 29.41 -0.47 32.65 30.92 11M 7.6M 29.72
Current. Gapped lower and were tempted to take the last positions off the table, but it rolled over and closed near the session low so left it to run a bit more to see how far this goes. Fifth gap lower on this leg so the rubber band is getting stretched.
SONC 02/27 Put 21.02 -0.25 21.35 20.00 549K 625K 21.39
Current. Broke below the Thursday low and closed at the session
low. Still a long way to go to fill that August gap
higher from roughly 20. When it breaks again it will
break big from the look of it.
SPY 02/28 Put 137.35 -1.32 140.76 138.00 142M 70M 139.25
STEC 02/27 Put 8.09 -0.16 8.91 7.70 926K 1.4M 8.31
Gapped lower and tried to recover with the market but
could not hold it. Trying to hold 8, & an undercut
to near the 200 day (7.72) likely turns it back up
near term.
TMO 03/01 HdShldr 44.16 -0.11 45.02 43.58 4.4M 3.5M 44.77
Current. Gapped lower but managed to rebound to close basically
flat. Want it back below 44 on the close over the next
session or two.
VIX 03/01 Put 19.63 +1.02 18.55 14.05 0 0 20.05
Buy Not Issued. Gapped higher on more fear, closing not quite a point
off that high. Would be nice to see it surge up near
23 before it peaks on this move as that is where January
peaked ahead of the eventual bottom in July.
End part 2 of 3
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