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Begin part 2 of 3
*****
NOTE: Part 2 is preceding part 1 tonight as Jon Johnson had an after hours CNBC taping that will air first at 9:40 am ET Thursday and then two other times in the session.
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CONTINUING PLAYS
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LEGEND FOR CONTINUING PLAY TABLE
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: Asc Tri =Ascending triangle; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.)
Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; Dsc Tri=Descending triangle; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
PLAY STATUS: Buy not hit (stock has not hit buy point); Buy not issued (stock has hit buy point but did not enter due to weak volume, poor intraday action, poor market action); Current (ongoing play already entered); Entered today (entered the play that session); Exited (closed the position); Target hit (play hit initial target; will note if took all or partial gain or let run further); Trailing stop (exited using a trailing stop loss).
Upside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
ACL 03/05 Test 50 125.02 +1.37 125.05 135.00 319K 650K 121.18
Buy Not Issued. Gapped up and rallied again, but then flirted with the buy point all session, unable to clear the 18 day EMA (125.55) despite tapping it intraday. With the low volume we were not going to move in given its stall at that level.
ACLI 02/20 Cup hdl 35.94 +1.60 38.48 43.98 410K 532K 37.31
Nice bounce back over the 50 day MA though volume was
pretty sorry on the move. Low volume is what you expect
in this kind of rebound. If it gets to 38 that is the
point of truth, particularly if low volume persists.
AIR 02/06 DB hdl 28.85 +0.34 30.60 35.95 483K 680K 30.32
Current. Bounced up to the 50 day EMA (29.11) and stalled. If
it cannot get over this level we will have to close it.
ANST 02/28 Test BO 30.74 -0.04 31.01 35.95 175K 325K 29.28
Entered today. Gapped higher and then made an intraday test. We used that to move in. It closed off its gap point but held the 18 day EMA on the close. Needs to continue higher from here & not revisit lower. Nice pattern set to move. Made us some money on the last run, now do it again.
ASCA 02/22 Cup hdl 32.27 +0.34 33.48 40.95 162K 325K 31.55
Buy Not Issued. Tight doji at the 18 day EMA. Just waiting on ASCA to make its move. Light selling so it is set to break higher. Did not participate in Tuesday move but it has done its own thing during this base so it will break out when it is ready.
BA 02/03 Test BO 87.82 +0.80 91.65 102.95 3.3M 5.8M 89.31
Current. Modest Tuesday gain on low volume, holding the 90 day
MA by a hair on the close. Needs to show more pop and
get over 89 to give is something to hold onto. If
it stalls out here we close it.
BWLD 03/03 DB hdl 55.12 +1.58 56.25 63.85 343K 450K 54.78
Buy Not Hit. Volume jumped up on the session as it moved off the
50 day EMA. Looks as if it is crouching ahead of the
break higher.
COG 03/01 PreSplt 65.33 +0.25 68.85 76.95 907K 700K 66.78
Buy Not Hit.
COG 02/13 PreAnn 65.33 +0.25 66.89 76.95 907K 833K 68.57
Big volume but ran in place. Not the best action as
it shows churn, i.e. high volume turnover. It is holding
support at 65, and that is where it needs to make its
stand.
CYTC 03/03 Test BO 30.22 +0.32 30.65 34.95 433K 1.1M 29.77
Buy Not Hit. Still moving along the 18 day MA in the breakout test
while the stocks that were pounded bounced. It is nicely
set up and we just wait and let it show us the move
if it will.
DLTR 03/01 PreAnn 34.61 +0.89 34.65 39.95 1.7M 1.2M 32.94
Entered today. Volume was up as DLTR rebounded off the 18 day EMA
test so we started the play with some positions and
see if it can continue the move off of this solid set up.
FDX 02/20 Rev HS 112.57 +1.40 120.32 134.95 1.6M 2.5M 117.36
Current. Gapped higher off the 200 day and held the move though
volume was low once more. Has to show a move over 114
to give it some credibility but there is a wad of congestion
from 114 to 118. We will just see how far it can rebound.
FLIR 03/05 Test 50 33.95 +0.79 34.55 39.35 717K 750K 32.65
Buy Not Hit. Volume was up as it tested the 10 day EMA and faded
some to close. Excellent action and a good set up for
the continued break higher.
GES 03/03 PreSplt 80.71 +2.99 81.88 91.45 576K 845K 79.45
Buy Not Hit. Good recovery from the Monday issues. Closed at the
10 day EMA. Trying to build a little momentum here
for a run to 85ish. If it continues higher we want
to take a chunk of that run.
ICE 03/05 Test 50 142.43 +5.32 140.65 160.00 8.1M 6M 135.88
Entered today. Gapped higher, tested, and we moved in as it tested
and started to rally back off the 50 day MA. It can
tear off big chunks of green, and a couple more strong
sessions will warm things up.
JCI 03/01 Test 50 95.60 +0.70 95.35 103.95 1M 1.5M 92.25
Buy Not Issued. Still cannot get over the 10 day EMA on the close and
with the tight range after the bounce were not ready
to move in.
MSTR 02/14 Cup hdl 125.21 +2.91 125.45 135.85 159K 385K 121.45
Buy Not Issued. Gapped higher but no volume and stalled at the 10 day
EMA. It can really move when it gets its legs under
it. Needs a couple of big days to make us some money
on this run so we have to be nimble on this one.
NKE 03/01 PreSplt 105.10 +2.64 105.67 115.00 1.6M 2M 102.95
Buy Not Issued. Turned back up on some rising though still below average
volume. Like what it is showing and if it continues
we can move in, grab 2 to 3 upside days and take a
nice gain.
NTGR 02/17 Dbl btm 26.58 +0.85 28.63 34.32 624K 1.1M 27.68
Current. Rallied with the market, tapping at the 90 day MA (26.91)
on the high and fading some. Key point for NTGR; it
needs to clear this resistance at 27 and then 28. A
lot to accomplish and the trade was not too encouraging.
NX 01/23 Trnd Rv 40.24 +1.31 39.29 44.88 517K 500K 39.05
Current. Nice break higher on lower but still above avg volume.
New closing high on this run and looking at more positions
as it continues higher.
RIMM 02/24 Asc Bse 135.60 +1.08 145.31 159.95 6.5M 13M 142.22
Current.
RIMM 02/03 PreAnn 135.60 +1.08 135.96 154.89 6.5M 10M 142.22
Current. Good recovery over the Monday issues, gapping higher.
It stalled at the 18 day MA on lower volume. RIMM continues
to show great relative strength, and after riding thru
this market correction.
RL 02/15 Asc Bse 83.42 +1.67 85.55 96.45 1.1M 1.2M 85.21
Current. Recovered the 50 day EMA (82.42) on rising volume,
doing just what we wanted making that slip a 1-day
event. Nice hold and nice position to bounce.
SSYS 03/01 Test BO 39.55 +2.19 39.04 44.95 209K 175K 37.39
Entered today. Excellent break higher on solid volume as SSYS cleared
to a ne all-time high. Textbook performance.
SYK 02/22 FlyPlat 61.65 +0.76 64.03 73.42 1.3M 1.7M 61.91
Current. Gapped higher, making it to the 10 day EMA on the high
where it stalled. Volume was much lower. Needs to get
through 62.50 on this move and pick up some trade along
the way to make a more stryking move.
TALX 02/28 Test 18 33.16 +0.63 33.47 38.65 511K 900K 31.13
Buy Not Hit. Moved higher but could not move through the 18 day
EMA. Just have to be patient and see if this pans out.
UCTT 03/03 DB hdl 16.16 +0.45 16.41 19.45 394K 725K 15.26
Buy Not Issued. Gapped higher but not much volume and faded back to
close. Still an excellent pattern and still set to
break higher.
VSEA 03/03 Test BO 47.70 +1.50 48.05 54.95 1.4M 2M 45.31
Buy Not Issued. Making some hay on stronger volume. Backed off the
high but still looks ready to continue the move.
XTO 01/30 PreAnn 50.71 +0.88 52.32 59.89 2.7M 4.5M 51.31
Current. Gapped higher and held most of the move. It still has
to get over 51 with some authority to really put the
move back in the catbird seat, but overall it is showing
solid strength.
Downside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
AEOS 03/03 HdShldr 29.83 +0.96 29.68 28.05 5M 4M 30.48
Buy Not Issued. Very interesting. Gapped higher and filled the Monday gap lower, showing a doji. May come up to test the 10 day EMA (30.51) but 30 is an important level. If it fails at 30 that gives us a great entry point for the downside play.
CRI 02/27 Put 23.72 +0.64 23.66 22.00 690K 750K 24.21
Buy Not Issued. Still hugging the 18 day EMA as it tests that level
after rebounding from the mid-February gap lower. Still
just waiting for it to make the drop as it continues
to trend lower.
PHRM 03/03 Put 26.32 +1.25 25.92 23.65 460K 600K 26.95
Buy Not Issued. Gapped higher and recovered the losses from last week
but volume was below average. Looking for it to test
a bit higher (90 day MA at 26.90) and then come back down.
SBUX 02/17 Put 30.00 +0.59 32.65 30.92 11M 7.6M 29.72
Target Hit. Took the rest of an excellent gain as SBUX gapped higher
after 5 gaps lower. Will let it reload and then see
if it is showing signs it will continue lower again.
We have made two big plays off it; we will see.
SONC 02/27 Put 21.28 +0.26 21.35 20.00 568K 625K 21.39
Current. Gapped higher but was all over the griddle. Managed
to hold a low volume gain. Sympathy move with the market
and still going to trend lower.
TMO 03/01 HdShldr 44.83 +0.67 45.02 43.58 3.6M 3.5M 44.77
Current. Gapped higher but volume was lower. Still an ugly breakdown
and it is going to fall from here.
End part 2 of 3
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