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trade stock, stock recommendation
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
New Plays:
Upside:
New Post-Split Play:
Play Date: 03/07/2007
CXW (Corrections Corp of America--$51.72; -0.05; optionable): Private prisons
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cxw.html
STATUS: Test breakout. CXW gapped out of a 4 month base in early February. It had a hard time extending the move, working laterally below 54 to end the month and then faded to fill the gap. It sold with the market, but volume was very light; no dumping the stock, just filling the gap. It held the 50 day EMA (49.81) and then jumped higher Tuesday on the strongest trade in a month. Took a breather Wednesday on lower, average volume. Looks like that is just a pause before it continues higher. Looking to move in as it continues higher.
Volume: 420.6K Avg Volume: 370.647K
BUY POINT: $52.21 Volume=450K Target=$58.89 Stop=$49.89
POSITION: CXW FJ - June $50c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cxw.html
Play Date: 03/07/2007
VLO (Valero Energy--$59.80; +1.96; optionable): Oil and gas refining
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vlo.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Volume kicked in Wednesday as VLO cleared the handle to its 7 month base. A big winner in 2005 and half of 2006, VLO needed a base to rest and then set up for its next run. With margins at $15 or more/bbl and the driving season coming, VLO is ready to run and it has room to run as well. Ready to start positions as it continues and then again on the test.
Volume: 21.928M Avg Volume: 11.296M
BUY POINT: $60.22 Volume=12M Target=$67.95 Stop=$57.95
POSITION: VLO FL - June $60c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/vlo.html
Downside: Getting ready for the next downside
Play Date: 03/07/2007
MA (MasterCard--$99.72; -4.27; optionable): Charge cards, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/ma.html
STATUS: Put. Big winner in 2006, MA has formed a broad top the past 9 weeks. Big intraday reversal in the second week of February as it disappointed on earnings. It tried to recover along the 50 day EMA (103.51); game try but it is failing as it broke lower below that level on sharper, above average volume Wednesday, closing below the 90 day MA (99.93). Looking for a further break lower to initiate the play. A move to the target lands a 42%ish gain, but it could sell closer to 90 on this move.
Volume: 5.146M Avg Volume: 3.149M
BUY POINT: $99.31 Volume=3.2M Target=$93.85 Stop=$102.11
POSITION: MA PT - Apr. $100p (-44 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ma.html
Play Date: 03/07/2007
SPY (S&P Depository Receipts--$139.56; -0.14; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/spy.html
STATUS: Put. SPY is setting up for another run lower for us after the one over the past week. It has rebounded from that selling, rising Tuesday and Wednesday, but it could not hold Wednesday's gain. Ready to move in if it continues lower from here. If it bounced a bit more we let it go higher, reset the buy point, and then play it again when the fall starts once more. A move to the target from the Wednesday close lands a 45%ish gain.
Volume: 115.254M Avg Volume: 73.43M
BUY POINT: $139.38 Volume=70M Target=$136.65 Stop=$140.32
POSITION: SFB PJ - Apr. $140p (-47 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/spy.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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trade stock
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