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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 03/07/2007
BW (Brush Engineered--$43.56; -1.05; optionable): Industrial metals, minerals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bw.html
STATUS: Breakout test. BW gapped out of a 12 week base in mid-February and galloped to near 50 on a huge earnings call. It started to pullback to test just ahead of the market selling, and as the market sold it used that to come back to near support at the 18 day EMA (43.07). Tuesday it jumped on stronger volume but sagged Wednesday. Still holding strong, showing excellent strength and getting ready to continue its breakout run.
Volume: 463.8K Avg Volume: 346.147K
BUY POINT: $45.05 Volume=520K Target=$51.85 Stop=$43.00
POSITION: BW FI - June $45c (51 delta, 72 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/bw.html
Play Date: 03/07/2007
CXW (Corrections Corp of America--$51.72; -0.05; optionable): Private prisons
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cxw.html
STATUS: Test breakout. CXW gapped out of a 4 month base in early February. It had a hard time extending the move, working laterally below 54 to end the month and then faded to fill the gap. It sold with the market, but volume was very light; no dumping the stock, just filling the gap. It held the 50 day EMA (49.81) and then jumped higher Tuesday on the strongest trade in a month. Took a breather Wednesday on lower, average volume. Looks like that is just a pause before it continues higher. Looking to move in as it continues higher.
Volume: 420.6K Avg Volume: 370.647K
BUY POINT: $52.21 Volume=450K Target=$58.89 Stop=$49.89
POSITION: CXW FJ - June $50c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cxw.html
Play Date: 03/07/2007
VLO (Valero Energy--$59.80; +1.96; optionable): Oil and gas refining
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vlo.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Volume kicked in Wednesday as VLO cleared the handle to its 7 month base. A big winner in 2005 and half of 2006, VLO needed a base to rest and then set up for its next run. With margins at $15 or more/bbl and the driving season coming, VLO is ready to run and it has room to run as well. Ready to start positions as it continues and then again on the test.
Volume: 21.928M Avg Volume: 11.296M
BUY POINT: $60.22 Volume=12M Target=$67.95 Stop=$57.95
POSITION: VLO FL - June $60c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/vlo.html
Downside: Getting ready for the next downside
Play Date: 03/07/2007
MA (MasterCard--$99.72; -4.27; optionable): Charge cards, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/ma.html
STATUS: Put. Big winner in 2006, MA has formed a broad top the past 9 weeks. Big intraday reversal in the second week of February as it disappointed on earnings. It tried to recover along the 50 day EMA (103.51); game try but it is failing as it broke lower below that level on sharper, above average volume Wednesday, closing below the 90 day MA (99.93). Looking for a further break lower to initiate the play. A move to the target lands a 42%ish gain, but it could sell closer to 90 on this move.
Volume: 5.146M Avg Volume: 3.149M
BUY POINT: $99.31 Volume=3.2M Target=$93.85 Stop=$102.11
POSITION: MA PT - Apr. $100p (-44 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ma.html
Play Date: 03/07/2007
SPY (S&P Depository Receipts--$139.56; -0.14; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/spy.html
STATUS: Put. SPY is setting up for another run lower for us after the one over the past week. It has rebounded from that selling, rising Tuesday and Wednesday, but it could not hold Wednesday's gain. Ready to move in if it continues lower from here. If it bounced a bit more we let it go higher, reset the buy point, and then play it again when the fall starts once more. A move to the target from the Wednesday close lands a 45%ish gain.
Volume: 115.254M Avg Volume: 73.43M
BUY POINT: $139.38 Volume=70M Target=$136.65 Stop=$140.32
POSITION: SFB PJ - Apr. $140p (-47 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/spy.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Play Date: 03/03/2007
CYTC (Cytyc--$30.47; +0.25; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cytc.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Volume jumped above average Wednesday as CYTC moved off near support at the 18 day EMA. Solid action and ready to make its move for our entry. Good sector for a defensive market. To recap: CYTC barely paid mind to the selling last week, fading modestly the past two weeks to test the early February breakout (earnings driven). It held the 18 day EMA on the lows; picture perfect test. Solid base as well, an 11 month cup with handle. Excellent money flow. Top earnings growth rates to go along with the pattern. Ready for a break higher as the market rebounds in relief.
Volume: 1.235M Avg Volume: 861.178K
BUY POINT: $30.65 Volume=1.1M Target=$34.95 Stop=$29.77
POSITION: YQK HF - Aug. $30c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cytc.html
Play Date: 03/05/2007
FLIR (Flir Systems--$33.90; -0.05; optionable): Scientific and technical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/flir.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Still just over the 50 day EMA (33.17) as it tests the early February breakout from its 10 week base. Part of a much larger 1.5 year double bottom with handle; has a good foundation for a move higher. Volume is up the past two sessions as it bumps at the 10 day EMA, readying for its next move.
Volume: 689.552K Avg Volume: 539.217K
BUY POINT: $34.55 Volume=750K Target=$39.35 Stop=$32.65
POSITION: FFQ GG - July $35c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/flir.html
Play Date: 02/28/2007
HLTH (Webmd Corp.--$14.70; -0.16; optionable): Healthcare information software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hlth.html
STATUS: Breakout test. HLTH jumped higher Tuesday on stronger trade, then faded back to the 18 day EMA on lower volume Wednesday. Nice set up and showing it wants to make the next run higher.
Volume: 3.284M Avg Volume: 4.64M
BUY POINT: $15.11 Volume=8M Target=$18.25 Stop=$14.38
POSITION: HUT GC - July $15c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/hlth.html
Play Date: 03/03/2007
VCLK (Valueclick--$26.50; +0.37; optionable): Advertising services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vclk.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Making its second test of the 50 day EMA (25.48) after breaking out in November from a 10 month cup with handle base. Formed another base in December and January and broke higher last month. It fell back to the 50 day EMA in the market selling, but held the line there and started back up Wednesday on rising, above average volume. Looks ready to resume the move.
Volume: 2.6M Avg Volume: 1.938M
BUY POINT: $26.87 Volume=2.9M Target=$31.95 Stop=$25.32
POSITION: QCS FE - June $25c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/vclk.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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