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yahoo stock, us stock market
Begin Part 2 of 2
THE PLAYS:
Reading the Plays: Please note that when we reference the 10, 18, and 50 day moving averages (MVA), those are exponential moving averages (EMA). The 200 day moving average is always simple (SMA). We will note when we reference a particular MVA differently, e.g., a simple 50 day MVA. Please click on the Yahoo and chart links for company and charting information. A "prior high" refers to the high at the start of a base.
For conserving space on listings of stop losses, the symbol (7%) indicates that the stop is 7% below the buy point.
Stocks/Indexes from the Tuesday report:
GSPN: A subscriber's choice that made a good move up Tuesday but with volume lower today pulled back again to support at the 18 day MVA (held the stock for the last 3 days).
TMCS: Moved up from Tuesday's doji in the test of the breakout, on huge volume. Would have likely made a much stronger move up on a better day.
PDG: Closed right at the buy point in the cup with handle. Volume was huge (pulling PDG off the high of 12.45). Another move thwarted by the market. We will see what kind of follow-through we get.
CAKE: Moved below the up trendline that supported recent lows. Volume was lower and CAKE can hold above 34, where it has price support from this and last month. Looking for a bounce play.
NVDA: Opened below the 18 day MVA and pulled back from there on lower volume, holding above some support at 62.50 range. Were looking for a strong move up after Tuesday's close above that MVA, and if we get an oversold bounce the stock can continue up to our target at the 70 resistance.
Continued Plays:
IDPH ($62.41; -1.19): Hit the aggressive buy point of 63 for the put play. Rising volume and looks ready to break support for a move down to the target at the 200 day MVA (58).
IPIC: Still testing the breakout from its cup with handle. Is volatile in the test, showing a pattern that is like an ascending wedge (with an aberrant high), posting higher lows. Holding support at the 18 day MVA from where it bounced on higher volume today.
ITWO: Sold back to the 50 day MVA on higher volume. Can break the support if the action continues, but the stock may find support between 6 and 7 if it does break the 50 day (at 7.18).
MEDQ: A tight doji in the handle, right at support. Volume shot above average, so we will see if it breaks to the upside. Looks like now or never.
RHAT: Forget the bounce unless the stock holds support at 8; it broke the 18 day MVA on rising volume to close right there (price support from Nov-early Jan. Not a good move.
SATH: Holding at the 3.50 range for the last 4 days in a test of its cup with handle breakout. We want to see it hold above the highs at the start of the base (3.39ish) so has a few cents leeway if it falls back. Volume decreasing very nicely. New buy point is over 3.60 for aggressive positions (breakout high was 3.79).
SEBL: Shooting star doji on the pullback, and is just above the 200 day MVA. May rebound from here, but will face some resistance about three point up near 35, if the move is weak.
SGI: Broke the 18 day MVA (by 2 cents) on rising volume in the test of the breakout. Want to see it hold the November high at 2.47 and get back up.
WMT: Whoa. Opened where it closed Tuesday, above support, but crashed back through the 50 day MVA. Found support at 54 and closed back over the major support, which is good (on the lower, below average volume), but it is not ready to rally, if it is going to. Still skeptical of continued gains from the retailers, though yesterday's move was exciting (institutional buying at the 50 day).
SUBSCRIBER CHOICE:
CBSA (Coastal Bancorp--$30.00; -0.15; no options): Savings & Loan
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cbsa.html
STATUS: CBSA is tracing a new base after a super uptrend from the summer of 2000. It peaked on that trend at the August 2001 high of 40 and has moved below its 200 day MVA (31.57). That isn't the best positioning for a stock, but CBSA has formed a nice little 7-week cup with handle, the handle of which is holding in its pullback at the 50 day MVA (29.92). Volume action has not been good, with volume not showing the characteristic decrease we prefer, but we do like the volume spike thrown Tuesday (volume back down Wednesday to 29,900; avg. 22,000). The stock if it can break out of this pattern can break over the 200 day MVA, which would be the positive sign for a recovery. Patterns this low in a base are not considered as powerful as those that form above the 200 day MVA, but it can still break out. CBSA shows excellent money flow and buying. Target: 38
BUY POINT: Aggressive: 31.23 (one-eighth point above the handle high) on volume of 33,000 or better. Stop: 29.04 (7%). Over the 200 day MVA: 32 on similar volume. Stop: 29.76 (7%)
POSITION: Stock.
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/cbsa.html
Best Plays:
1) PEGS: A good-looking pullback in the handle/test of breakout.
2) SPCT: Ready to break out, and good earnings report out tonight can help.
3) TER: Ready to fall further after this strong-looking start.
4) EMC: Looking for an oversold bounce.
New:
PEGS (Pegasus Solutions--$17.30; +0.20; optionable): Diversified Services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pegs.html
STATUS: Off the lows near 6 in a two-year base, and currently pulling back in a handle to a 16-month saucer that is much of the bottom of the larger pattern. The handle is a test of PEGS' strong breakout off the 50 day MVA at the end of December. Volume has steadily decreased in the manner we like on pullback tests and/or handles, falling by Wednesday to 57,000 (avg. 125,090), and price is holding at the 10 day MVA (16.80), tapped on the last three days' intraday lows, so looks pretty firm here. Look for a move up from there as favorable conditions prevail (good price/volume action), for a breakout over the January high at 18.11. Excellent money flow and buying. Target: 22
BUY POINT: 18.24 on volume of 188,000 or higher. Stop: 16.96 (7%)
POSITION: Stock and/or April $17.50 calls to buy (PUG DW). Check with your broker for deltas, which were unavailable at the time of this writing.
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/pegs.html
A short term trade (for now) from a small stock:
SPCT (Spectrian Corp--$13.82; +0.34; optionable): Telecom Equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/spct.html
STATUS: In a cup/saucer with handle base that is at the bottom of a bigger base that is over 2 years in length. The stock broke over the 200 day MVA earlier this month and pulled back on decreasing volume in a test of the move, using the former resistance as support for today's move up (the 200 day is just about to cross over the 18 day MVA which is bullish). Volume was strong on the move at 246,700 (avg. 137,318). After the bell the company reported good earnings, so that news may push the stock up and over the January (handle) high at 14.73 for a breakout. The stock may have stronger resistance at 14.55, hit twice in the handle. Showing excellent money flow and buying and looks solid here. Target: 18
BUY POINT: 14.68 on continued strong volume (minimum breakout volume is 206,000). Stop: 13.65 (7%)
POSITION: Stock and/or May $12.50 calls to buy (QCS EV; low open interests).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/spct.html
Put:
TER (Teradyne--$28.75; -4.75; optionable): Semiconductor
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/ter.html
STATUS: Broke through support at the 50 day MVA (29.97) on huge volume as the company announced a fourth-quarter loss in revenue compared with the same quarter last year, and gave a reduced outlook as well. Looks like it can continue down from here, so we are eyeing a target at 23 initially. Watch 25 for potential support, but this was a strong move down. Volume was 7.8 million (avg. 2.8 million).
BUY POINT: TER may check back up to near 30 tomorrow before folding. From there after a rise or below 28.40 on continued strong volume.
POSITION: April $37.50 puts to buy (TER PU).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/ter.html
Update: From some tech stocks we are looking for a quick bounce to the upside for a day or two, with the idea that once at resistance the move may fail as the indexes hit their resistance levels and head back down, leading the way. This is a quick play.
EMC (Emc Corp--$15.61; -0.37; optionable): Data Storage (hardware)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/emc.html
STATUS: EMC has hit resistance at 18 since late August, but has given a couple of nice runs, including the most recent one early this month when it made a strong move back over the 50 day MVA where it closed Wednesday on a pullback from that breakout move. Showing a tight doji, the stock is poised for a bounce if it can hold the support (at 15.57); volume was slightly higher at 20.9 million (avg. 21.6 million). On the bounce, look for the quick and aggressive move up to 18. Buying looks good for the stock.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: 15.75 on rising volume. Stop: 14.65 (7%). Over the 18 day MVA at 15.90: 16 on rising volume. Stop: 14.88 (7%)
POSITION: Stock and/or February (aggressive) $12.50 puts to buy (EMC BV).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/emc.html
PORTFOLIOS: Each report, we look at these to see which is in a buy position. We don't cover them all each time, just the ones that look ready to pick up a few shares.
THE LEADERS: ACS, NVDA, DGX, FRX, LLL, KRON, MIK, BMET, APPB, MYL, IGT
APPB: Below the 50 day MVA again on falling volume as it unsuccessfully tried a move higher. That low volume second top earlier in the week is ominous as is the heavy volume selling below the 50 day MVA Monday. Time to pull out of any upside lays and be ready for a put play down to 30 (200 day MVA).
LLL: LLL stalled today on low volume, hanging in above the 50 day MVA.
IGT: Still heading up with volume higher again. Can move up to 70 or 71.80 before hitting resistance. We closed out the covered call play Tuesday when IGT moved back over the 18 day MVA.
ACS: Selling back, retracing Tuesday's nice move. This could be where it ends the run as volume was stronger on the immediate reversal. It is not a disaster if it pulls back, but when stocks make stronger turns above their upper channel (now about at 102.50), they tend to sell below it harder. We can take some profits here or on a break of the 18 day MVA at 105, look at selling February or April $100 calls (ACS DT) for a move down to the 50 day MVA at 99-100. Aggressive positions on a break of the 10 day MVA (106.58) on continued strong volume; the stock closed at 106.69. If the stock holds the 18 day, can bounce back up for a quick upside play to 109 if we get market (oversold) bounce.
BMET: Can't decide about the 50 day MVA; was back below it again Wednesday on rising volume. To say the least it does not look strong.
KRON: Nice move off the 18 day MVA, tapping that target again (53.48 on the low, the 18 day MVA) before bouncing. That gave us the chance to close out the covered call sale play at the lower price. The stock closed back over the 10 day MVA on stronger volume.
UP & COMERS PORTFOLIOS: BBBY, KKD, SRCL, EBAY, KG.
EBAY: Hit our buy point for the put play on Monday, and after testing the 50 day yesterday gapped down on the open and put in a $4 drop. Target is 200 day MVA at 58.20.
BBBY: Nope. Broke the 50 day MVA on still high but lower volume. Will want to see a quick move back over if it can. If not, we will sell.
SRCL: Getting seasick here. Made the quick move back over the 50 day MVA which was broken on strong selling Tuesday. Volume was lower, so we will have to watch closely to see if it can hold once again or put together a strong move higher.
MEMBER PORTFOLIO: BRCM, CHKP, AMAT, JNJ, MSFT, AOL, BUD, PXLW.
AMAT: A precipitous drop to the 50 day MVA, closing just below that support on heavy selling. Needs to slow down; will be time to sell if it doesn't make the quick move back over. Was back over the 50 day MVA in after hours trading, but that does not guarantee the same tomorrow. A good sign, though, at least for the short term.
CHKP: Out. Fell another 2+ points after breaking through the 50 day MVA Tuesday.
BRCM: We thought it would head up from the 10 day MVA from where it bounced on high volume yesterday, but BRCM on lower volume tested the 18 day MVA. Could get that bounce for a quick move up to 50 before hitting resistance again.
MSFT: Broke below the 18 day MVA but can find support at the 67.50 range, if not the lower 50 day MVA (66.39).
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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yahoo stock
us stock market
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