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us stock market, stock tip
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: FDX; SBUX
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 03/10/2007
PCLN (Priceline.com--$52.27; -0.54; optionable): Online travel services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pcln.html
EARNINGS: Reported 2-12-07
STATUS: Breakout test. PCLN is making its third test of the September 2006 breakout from a long 3 year cup with handle base. Made us some great money on its earlier runs, powered by the new William Shattner commercials (yea, right), and we are looking at it again right now because despite the selling in the market, PCLN has simply continued consolidating its strong February run higher. It has refused to give back any gains, instead working laterally along the 18 day EMA (51.33) and setting up its next move higher. Money flow remains strong and looking for PCLN to continue its move higher once this test is over. It could break higher in a day or a week, but like its strength and just want to be ready when it makes the next move.
Volume: 638.975K Avg Volume: 1.152M
BUY POINT: $53.55 Volume=1.7M Target=$61.65 Stop=$51.15
POSITION: PUZ GJ - July $50c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/pcln.html
Play Date: 03/10/2007
PRFT (Perficient--$19.70; +0.59; optionable): IT e-business solutions
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/prft.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-21-07
STATUS: Test 90 day MA. Perficient is an efficient market leader in a continuing uptrend, PRFT was starting to test its last move, a nice January surge, before the market selling hit. Consequently, when the selling did show up PRFT was already in test mode and was not a primary target of the shorts. It fell back to the 90 day MA (18.47), matching some price consolidation levels from December and the October price peak. It found support there and started higher last week with the market rebound. Friday it cleared the 50 day EMA (19.20) on stronger volume. A good start to the next run but want to see it clear an interim high at 20 on strong volume. A top stock in fundamentals growth rates to go along with the solid technical position.
Volume: 352.699K Avg Volume: 441.138K
BUY POINT: $20.25 Volume=600K Target=$23.95 Stop=$19.05
POSITION: UTJ GD - July $20c (70 delta, 70 OI); &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/prft.html
Play Date: 03/10/2007
WMS (Williams Industries--$39.28; -0.03; optionable): Gaming machines and video lottery terminals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wms.html
EARNINGS: Reported 2-5-07
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. A sweet six and one-half week base has formed using the 50 day EMA (37.83) as support, prepping WMS for a new all-time high when it makes the breakout move. Like how it held the 50 day in the market selling; that shows continued underlying support from some big money backers. Indeed, it hardly sold off, just went about its own business. Money flow is strong and accumulation is a strong 3:1 in the pattern. Will likely take another 2 to 3 days to form the handle but exceptionally solid in this market correction. Indeed the odds of this one moving up and making us a 15% or more gain are exponentially better than winning on its gaming machines.
Volume: 369.9K Avg Volume: 401.457K
BUY POINT: $39.72 Volume=600K Target=$45.75 Stop=$38.29
POSITION: ATW FH - June $40c (48 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/wms.html
Downside: What correction doesn't need some good downside plays?
Play Date: 03/10/2007
CSE (Capitalsource--$24.81; -0.24; optionable): Credit services for small and medium sized businesses
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cse.html
EARNINGS: 2-27-07
STATUS: PUT. The bane of the market right now is anything financial, particularly loans. The idea that the economy is in deeper trouble than reported is an undercurrent to the recent selling and thus the weakness as investors shoot first and wonder what happened later. It reported some decent earnings and a dividend increase, receiving upgrades when it did. Nonetheless, CSE double had topped in December and February, however, indicating trouble was already in the works before the news really hit re mortgage issues. It broke the 50 day EMA in February and failed a test, plummeting from 27 to 24. It rebounded in last week's relief rally, but volume basically, to use the new word for the week, sucked. It tapped the 200 day SMA (25.37) Thursday and then rolled back on Friday. Looks ripe for to follow tanking money flow lower. There is a ridge of support at 24, so it will likely try to hold there, but it will likely seek the bottom of that range at 23. A move to the target lands a 43%ish gain. Ugly pattern ready to yield some more pretty downside profits.
Volume: 1.26M Avg Volume: 1.089M
BUY POINT: $24.68 Volume=1.4M Target=$23.41 Stop=$25.04
POSITION: CSP PE - Apr. $25p (-42 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/cse.html
Play Date: 03/10/2007
GS (Goldman Sachs--$201.70; +1.76; optionable): Investment brokerage
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gs.html
EARNINGS: 3-13-07 before the open
STATUS: Put. Made us some great money in its run higher, but it is in correction mode and has just one down leg under the belt. Financials are struggling because of economic worries, and given the big run higher they are in the gun sights of sellers. GS dove lower in late February, finding 'bottom' last week on Monday and then rebounding. Same as the market. It rallied up to the 90 day MA (202.84) on Friday, showing a doji there. Earnings are Tuesday morning, and this makes this a more aggressive play; it could always kill earnings and rally. In this current market mood, however, it is likely to take a few sessions for the market to appreciate its earnings, and that gives us a downside move to bank some nice gain when the earnings come out. That means looking to move in as it pushes a bit lower Monday. A move to the target lands a 44%ish gain.
Volume: 7.682M Avg Volume: 6.542M
BUY POINT: $200.88 Volume=8M Target=$194.00 Stop=$203.05
POSITION: GPY PT - Apr. $200p (-44 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/gs.html
Play Date: 03/10/2007
LIZ (Liz Claiborne--$42.67; -0.35; optionable): Apparel
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/liz.html
EARNINGS: Reported 2-28-07
STATUS: Put. LIZ reported earnings to end February and no one seemed to notice. Hardly a blip on the chart, just a modest gain on the session. After that it was back to work, i.e. setting up for the next drop lower. Now LIZ is not a barking dog; it enjoyed a great run from July to February, but it ran out of gas at that point. The tip off was the new high on no volume. That shows you that there was no push of new buyers coming in as the stock reached a pinnacle. With no new bids coming in the stock has to correct. It did so to end February, starting the first leg lower. Last week it moved laterally as the market rebounded; it didn't even try to rebound to test the 90 day MA (43.81) it broke, and that is an indication of a lack of strength. Started lower Friday on rising trade, and looks ready to follow money supply that is falling so fast it will have to call the stock price and tell it to bring its stomach with it as price falls to catch up. A move to the target lands a 42%ish gain.
Volume: 1.122M Avg Volume: 707.065K
BUY POINT: $42.51 Volume=1M Target=$40.75 Stop=$43.05
POSITION: LIZ PI - Apr. $45p (-67 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/liz.html
Continuing plays ready to move:
ACTG
HLTH
HMSY
VCLK
Downside:
ACAS
DAKT
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
stock tip
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