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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: ACL; BTJ; CYTC; FDX; SBUX
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 03/10/2007
ITRI (Itron--$63.22; +0.38; optionable): Automated meter reading, solid-state meters for energy/water providers
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/itri.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-13-07
STATUS: Breakout test. A really nice break higher from a 10 month double bottom base in late February that tested in the recent market selling. Nice because volume remained low as it sold back to support at the 18 day EMA (62.23), holding the base even though it gave up the breakout. The low volume indicates no reversal and indeed volume started hopping up Friday as ITRI started back up off near support. Excellent positioning and setting ITRI to continue higher even in a market fade.
Volume: 586.966K Avg Volume: 477.397K
BUY POINT: $64.31 Volume=715K Target=$73.95 Stop=$62.05
POSITION: IUP HM - Aug. $65c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/itri.html
Play Date: 03/10/2007
PCLN (Priceline.com--$52.27; -0.54; optionable): Online travel services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pcln.html
EARNINGS: Reported 2-12-07
STATUS: Breakout test. PCLN is making its third test of the September 2006 breakout from a long 3 year cup with handle base. Made us some great money on its earlier runs, powered by the new William Shattner commercials (yea, right), and we are looking at it again right now because despite the selling in the market, PCLN has simply continued consolidating its strong February run higher. It has refused to give back any gains, instead working laterally along the 18 day EMA (51.33) and setting up its next move higher. Money flow remains strong and looking for PCLN to continue its move higher once this test is over. It could break higher in a day or a week, but like its strength and just want to be ready when it makes the next move.
Volume: 638.975K Avg Volume: 1.152M
BUY POINT: $53.55 Volume=1.7M Target=$61.65 Stop=$51.15
POSITION: PUZ GJ - July $50c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/pcln.html
Play Date: 03/10/2007
WMS (Williams Industries--$39.28; -0.03; optionable): Gaming machines and video lottery terminals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wms.html
EARNINGS: Reported 2-5-07
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. A sweet six and one-half week base has formed using the 50 day EMA (37.83) as support, prepping WMS for a new all-time high when it makes the breakout move. Like how it held the 50 day in the market selling; that shows continued underlying support from some big money backers. Indeed, it hardly sold off, just went about its own business. Money flow is strong and accumulation is a strong 3:1 in the pattern. Will likely take another 2 to 3 days to form the handle but exceptionally solid in this market correction. Indeed the odds of this one moving up and making us a 15% or more gain are exponentially better than winning on its gaming machines.
Volume: 369.9K Avg Volume: 401.457K
BUY POINT: $39.72 Volume=600K Target=$45.75 Stop=$38.29
POSITION: ATW FH - June $40c (48 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/wms.html
Downside: What correction doesn't need some good downside plays?
Play Date: 03/10/2007
CSE (Capitalsource--$24.81; -0.24; optionable): Credit services for small and medium sized businesses
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cse.html
EARNINGS: 2-27-07
STATUS: PUT. The bane of the market right now is anything financial, particularly loans. The idea that the economy is in deeper trouble than reported is an undercurrent to the recent selling and thus the weakness as investors shoot first and wonder what happened later. It reported some decent earnings and a dividend increase, receiving upgrades when it did. Nonetheless, CSE double had topped in December and February, however, indicating trouble was already in the works before the news really hit re mortgage issues. It broke the 50 day EMA in February and failed a test, plummeting from 27 to 24. It rebounded in last week's relief rally, but volume basically, to use the new word for the week, sucked. It tapped the 200 day SMA (25.37) Thursday and then rolled back on Friday. Looks ripe for to follow tanking money flow lower. There is a ridge of support at 24, so it will likely try to hold there, but it will likely seek the bottom of that range at 23. A move to the target lands a 43%ish gain. Ugly pattern ready to yield some more pretty downside profits.
Volume: 1.26M Avg Volume: 1.089M
BUY POINT: $24.68 Volume=1.4M Target=$23.41 Stop=$25.04
POSITION: CSP PE - Apr. $25p (-42 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/cse.html
Play Date: 03/10/2007
GS (Goldman Sachs--$201.70; +1.76; optionable): Investment brokerage
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gs.html
EARNINGS: 3-13-07 before the open
STATUS: Put. Made us some great money in its run higher, but it is in correction mode and has just one down leg under the belt. Financials are struggling because of economic worries, and given the big run higher they are in the gun sights of sellers. GS dove lower in late February, finding 'bottom' last week on Monday and then rebounding. Same as the market. It rallied up to the 90 day MA (202.84) on Friday, showing a doji there. Earnings are Tuesday morning, and this makes this a more aggressive play; it could always kill earnings and rally. In this current market mood, however, it is likely to take a few sessions for the market to appreciate its earnings, and that gives us a downside move to bank some nice gain when the earnings come out. That means looking to move in as it pushes a bit lower Monday. A move to the target lands a 44%ish gain.
Volume: 7.682M Avg Volume: 6.542M
BUY POINT: $200.88 Volume=8M Target=$194.00 Stop=$203.05
POSITION: GPY PT - Apr. $200p (-44 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/gs.html
Play Date: 03/10/2007
LIZ (Liz Claiborne--$42.67; -0.35; optionable): Apparel
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/liz.html
EARNINGS: Reported 2-28-07
STATUS: Put. LIZ reported earnings to end February and no one seemed to notice. Hardly a blip on the chart, just a modest gain on the session. After that it was back to work, i.e. setting up for the next drop lower. Now LIZ is not a barking dog; it enjoyed a great run from July to February, but it ran out of gas at that point. The tip off was the new high on no volume. That shows you that there was no push of new buyers coming in as the stock reached a pinnacle. With no new bids coming in the stock has to correct. It did so to end February, starting the first leg lower. Last week it moved laterally as the market rebounded; it didn't even try to rebound to test the 90 day MA (43.81) it broke, and that is an indication of a lack of strength. Started lower Friday on rising trade, and looks ready to follow money supply that is falling so fast it will have to call the stock price and tell it to bring its stomach with it as price falls to catch up. A move to the target lands a 42%ish gain.
Volume: 1.122M Avg Volume: 707.065K
BUY POINT: $42.51 Volume=1M Target=$40.75 Stop=$43.05
POSITION: LIZ PI - Apr. $45p (-67 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/liz.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 03/07/2007
CXW (Corrections Corp of America--$51.57; -0.26; optionable): Private prisons
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cxw.html
STATUS: Test breakout. After the nice surge Tuesday on strong volume CXW ended the week at the 18 day EMA (51.66), holding the move and setting up for another run higher. Just have to wait for it to show the move. A good stock for this kind of market because it is not tied to any of the big economic sectors. Also like how it filled the early February bap and jumped right back up. To recap: CXW gapped out of a 4 month base in early February. It had a hard time extending the move, working laterally below 54 to end the month and then faded to fill the gap. It sold with the market, but volume was very light; no dumping the stock, just filling the gap. It held the 50 day EMA (49.96) and then jumped higher last Tuesday on the strongest trade in a month. Pausing now before it continues higher. Looking to move in as it continues higher.
Volume: 412K Avg Volume: 371.018K
BUY POINT: $52.21 Volume=450K Target=$58.89 Stop=$49.89
POSITION: CXW FJ - June $50c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cxw.html
Play Date: 02/28/2007
HLTH (Emdeon Corp.--$14.63; -0.11; optionable): Healthcare information software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hlth.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Continues its lateral move along the 18 day EMA (14.68), holding this near support as it consolidates the last big move. A real solid runner, we are just waiting to see if HLTH can continue its run higher during this correction.
Volume: 1.898M Avg Volume: 4.534M
BUY POINT: $15.11 Volume=8M Target=$18.25 Stop=$14.38
POSITION: HUT GC - July $15c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/hlth.html
Play Date: 03/06/2007
HMSY (HMS Holdings--$19.44; +0.40; no options): Cost containment and payment accuracy for government healthcare programs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hmsy.html
EARNINGS: Reported 2-28-07
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Strong volume Friday as HMSY started higher off the 50 day EMA (18.88). It faded back from the 18 day EMA (19.85) on the high but like the volume that started to come back in last week on the upside bumps. Looks ready for this week but of course if the market tanks it might delay a bit. It has held up very well during the selling, however, making a routine pullback to set back up for another run. To recap: HMSY broke out in early January and posted an excellent run up the 10 day EMA (now at 20). It needed a test to set up the next run, and the market selling has provided that. It was selling a bit ahead of that as earnings were already built into the run prior to the release. Nice fade to this support where it is showing a doji, the past two sessions on rising volume. Strong stocks run up the short term moving averages after a breakout, test the 50 day EMA, and then resume the move. Looking for continued strong volume as it makes the next break higher.
Volume: 500.142K Avg Volume: 279.837K
BUY POINT: $19.68 Volume=450K Target=$22.95 Stop=$18.75
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/hmsy.html
Play Date: 03/03/2007
VCLK (Valueclick--$26.39; +0.10; optionable): Advertising services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vclk.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Good volume Wednesday as VCLK jumped higher and cleared the 18 day EMA (26.40). Ended the week on lower, below average volume as it slid laterally along that support level. Looking for VCLK to make a higher low here and resume its move. The market may be a weight on it so we are going to move in slowly with partial positions at first. To recap: Making its second test of the 50 day EMA (25.55) after breaking out in November from a 10 month cup with handle base. Formed another base in December and January and broke higher last month. It fell back to the 50 day EMA in the market selling, but held the line there and started back up Wednesday on rising, above average volume. Looks ready to resume the move.
Volume: 1.28M Avg Volume: 1.917M
BUY POINT: $26.87 Volume=2.9M Target=$31.95 Stop=$25.32
POSITION: QCS FE - June $25c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/vclk.html
Downside:
Play Date: 03/08/2007
ACAS (American Capital--$43.96; +0.70; optionable): Debt fund
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/acas.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-13-07
STATUS: Put. ACAS edged higher Friday, managing a close right at the 10 day EMA (43.92) on lower, below average volume. That looks to have capped the rebound from the very nasty Monday plunge lower that saw ACAS undercut the 200 day SMA on the low. Just going to sit back and watch for the roll back down to give us an entry on the downside play. To recap: ACAS enjoyed a solid, steady climb up the 18 day EMA from August to early February when it hit a new high but volume was not there. It gapped lower on strong trade, rebounded, then collapsed below the 50 day EMA (45.56). It bounced off the 200 day SMA (40.58) after gapping to that level Monday. Looking for it to follow its money flow (that is in the toilet) and give us a nice ride lower. A move to the target lands a 44%ish gain.
Volume: 1.391M Avg Volume: 1.328M
BUY POINT: $43.09 Volume=1.6M Target=$41.00 Stop=$43.95
POSITION: DQS PI - Apr. $45p (-58 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/acas.html
Play Date: 03/07/2007
SPY (S&P Depository Receipts--$140.78; +0.04; optionable):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/spy.html
STATUS: Put. SPY is setting up for another run lower for us after the one over the past week. It has rebounded from that selling, rising Tuesday and Wednesday, but it could not hold Wednesday's gain. Ready to move in if it continues lower from here. If it bounced a bit more we let it go higher, reset the buy point, and then play it again when the fall starts once more. A move to the target from the Wednesday close lands a 45%ish gain.
Volume: 107.773M Avg Volume: 74.798M
BUY POINT: Aggressive: 140.65; next: $139.38 Volume=70M Target=$136.65 Stop=$140.32
POSITION: On aggressive buy: SFB PK - Apr. $141p (-44 delta); Next buy: SFB PJ - Apr. $140p (-47 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/spy.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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