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us stock market, stock tip
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: BTJ; NTGR; RIO; UCTT; WFR; WNR; BEBE; CSE; SBUX
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 03/12/2007
EXC (Exelon--$66.12; +1.63; optionable): Electrical utility
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/exc.html
EARNINGS: Announced 1-24-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Blasted out of a 16 week double bottom with handle base in late February, surging to 72 on the move. It has tested back, filling the gap and holding near support at the 18 day EMA (64.60), working laterally to end last week on low, below average volume. After that breather it surged Monday on stronger, average trade. Excellent set up for the next run higher as it refused to give up the pattern despite the selling in the market. Looking for a further break higher to start the position.
Volume: 3.075M Avg Volume: 2.774M
BUY POINT: $66.55 Volume=4M Target=$74.88 Stop=$64.08
POSITION: EXC GM - July $65c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/exc.html
Play Date: 03/12/2007
KCI (Kinetic Concepts, Inc.--$50.04; +1.42; optionable): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/kci.html
EARNINGS: Announced 1-30-07
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. KCI is coming back to test the solid run higher up the 10 and 18 day EMA, waiving at the 50 day EMA (46.81) as it tested back the past couple of weeks. Yes it sold in the market selling, but it held up very well in remarkably light selling. It has been a great recovery for KCI after a rough summer of 2006. Now this test is giving it a nice breather to set up for another run up the 10 and 18 day EMA. Volume was up Thursday and again Monday as it starts higher. Plenty of room to run to the upside. Have to like that.
Volume: 878.4K Avg Volume: 930.22K
BUY POINT: $50.72 Volume=1.2M Target=$58.95 Stop=$47.95
POSITION: KCI FJ - June $50c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/kci.html
Play Date: 03/12/2007
MM (Metal Management--$41.25; -0.50; optionable): Steel & iron
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mm.html
EARNINGS: 2-6-07
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. MM has formed a short 6 week base over the 50 day EMA (39.18), using that key level as support as it consolidates the November breakout and run higher from a 7 month base. Excellent action giving it a breather before it breaks to a new all-time high. Volume jumped back above average Monday as it tapped the 18 day EMA on the low and rebounded for a modest loss. Just have to sit back and wait for the breakout move.
Volume: 558.2K Avg Volume: 363.457K
BUY POINT: $42.12 Volume=545K Target=$48.65 Stop=$40.11
POSITION: MM GH - July $40c (75 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mm.html
Play Date: 03/12/2007
SPN (Superior Energy--$33.37; -0.28; optionable): Oil and gas service company
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/spn.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-26-07
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Setting up a very nice handle to its 12 week base, starting laterally last Thursday on low, below average volume. Part of a larger 11 month reverse head and shoulders base, SPN is in excellent position to run higher and make the break toward a new all-time high. Looks super.
Volume: 944K Avg Volume: 1.34M
BUY POINT: $34.11 Volume=2M Target=$39.95 Stop=$21.31
POSITION: SPN IG - Sept. $35c (54 delta) or SPN FF - June $30c (73 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/spn.html
Downside:
Play Date: 03/12/2007
CCU (Clear Channel Communications--$34.85; -0.54; optionable): Broadcast radio
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ccu.html
EARNINGS: 2-23-07
STATUS: Put. Volume surged Monday as CCU turned down sharply from the 90 day MA (35.70), following money flow lower. CCU gapped up sharply in late October, but now it is breaking down, looking to fill that gap higher. Like playing gaps because they always tend to fill. A move to the target lands a 50%ish gain.
Volume: 13.922M Avg Volume: 5.61M
BUY POINT: $34.68 Volume=6M Target=$33.38 Stop=$35.12
POSITION: CCU PG - Apr. $35p (-64 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ccu.html
Play Date: 03/12/2007
PSA (Public Storage, Inc.--$98.70; -0.48; optionable): REIT (public storage facilities)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/psa.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-27-07
STATUS: Put. Some ugly selling ahead of earnings and things did not get any better after their release. It finally found bottom a week ago when most of the market hit the first bottom. It has rebounded since, rising to the 90 day MA (99.22) Thursday and Friday, but unable top the 90 day. Monday it made another effort but closed below that level on rising, above average volume. Money flow is diving lower even as PSA made the rebound the past week. Looking for it to turn lower and resume the selling. A move to the target lands a 46%ish gain.
Volume: 1.33M Avg Volume: 944.472K
BUY POINT: $98.38 Volume=965K Target=$95.35 Stop=$99.45
POSITION: PSA PT - Apr. $100p (-61 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/psa.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 03/10/2007
PCLN (Priceline.com--$52.89; +0.62; optionable): Online travel services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pcln.html
EARNINGS: Reported 2-12-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Very low volume Monday as PCLN holds the 10 day EMA (52.31) as it sets up for its next run higher. Very solid, just has to show us the move. To recap: PCLN is making its third test of the September 2006 breakout from a long 3 year cup with handle base. Made us some great money on its earlier runs, powered by the new William Shattner commercials (yea, right), and we are looking at it again right now because despite the selling in the market, PCLN has simply continued consolidating its strong February run higher. It has refused to give back any gains, instead working laterally along the 18 day EMA (51.33) and setting up its next move higher. Money flow remains strong and looking for PCLN to continue its move higher once this test is over. It could break higher in a day or a week, but like its strength and just want to be ready when it makes the next move.
Volume: 416.696K Avg Volume: 1.121M
BUY POINT: $53.55 Volume=1.7M Target=$61.65 Stop=$51.15
POSITION: PUZ GJ - July $50c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/pcln.html
Play Date: 03/07/2007
VLO (Valero Energy--$60.29; +0.06; optionable): Oil and gas refineries
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vlo.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Easing laterally the past three sessions after a strong break higher last Wednesday that took it over its late February high and a higher high in its 7.5 month base. Strong surge and a nice test to set up the next move. Just waiting for the break higher on stronger trade.
Volume: 9.475M Avg Volume: 11.426M
BUY POINT: New: $60.85 (orig. $60.22) Volume=12M Target=$67.95 Stop=$57.95
POSITION: VLO FL - June $60c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/vlo.html
Downside:
Play Date: 03/08/2007
ACAS (American Capital--$44.06; +0.10; optionable): Debt fund
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/acas.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-13-07
STATUS: Put. Managed another modest gain Monday, but very low volume shows it has no momentum left. Also showing a doji on the candlestick chart, and when that occurs at the top of a run that often indicates a peak in the move is at hand. Going to let it show us the turn back down and then we are ready to move in. To recap: ACAS enjoyed a solid, steady climb up the 18 day EMA from August to early February when it hit a new high but volume was not there. It gapped lower on strong trade, rebounded, then collapsed below the 50 day EMA (45.56). It bounced off the 200 day SMA (40.58) after gapping to that level Monday. Looking for it to follow its money flow (that is in the toilet) and give us a nice ride lower. A move to the target lands a 44%ish gain. New buy point to account for the modest rise.
Volume: 1.109M Avg Volume: 1.338M
BUY POINT: $43.62 Volume=1.6M Target=$41.51 Stop=$44.55
POSITION: DQS PI - Apr. $45p (-58 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/acas.html
Play Date: 03/10/2007
LIZ (Liz Claiborne--$42.98; +0.31; optionable): Apparel
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/liz.html
EARNINGS: Reported 2-28-07
STATUS: Put. Gapped lower Monday but then rebounded to close fractionally higher. Volume was above average but lower as it tried to recover. Need to see it turn back down with continued volume. To recap: LIZ reported earnings to end February and no one seemed to notice. Hardly a blip on the chart, just a modest gain on the session. After that it was back to work, i.e. setting up for the next drop lower. Now LIZ is not a barking dog; it enjoyed a great run from July to February, but it ran out of gas at that point. The tip off was the new high on no volume. That shows you that there was no push of new buyers coming in as the stock reached a pinnacle. With no new bids coming in the stock has to correct. It did so to end February, starting the first leg lower. Last week it moved laterally as the market rebounded; it didn't even try to rebound to test the 90 day MA (43.81) it broke, and that is an indication of a lack of strength. Started lower Friday on rising trade, and looks ready to follow money supply that is falling so fast it will have to call the stock price and tell it to bring its stomach with it as price falls to catch up. A move to the target lands a 42%ish gain.
Volume: 916.1K Avg Volume: 716.812K
BUY POINT: $42.51 Volume=1M Target=$40.75 Stop=$43.05
POSITION: LIZ PI - Apr. $45p (-67 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/liz.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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