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Begin part 2 of 3
CONTINUING PLAYS
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LEGEND FOR CONTINUING PLAY TABLE
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: Asc Tri =Ascending triangle; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.)
Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; Dsc Tri=Descending triangle; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
PLAY STATUS: Buy not hit (stock has not hit buy point); Buy not issued (stock has hit buy point but did not enter due to weak volume, poor intraday action, poor market action); Current (ongoing play already entered); Entered today (entered the play that session); Exited (closed the position); Target hit (play hit initial target; will note if took all or partial gain or let run further); Trailing stop (exited using a trailing stop loss).
Upside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
ACL 03/05 Test 50 127.93 -1.17 127.38 137.00 298K 650K 126.95
Low volume fade after tapping at 130 again intraday. Not a lot of strength at all on this second attempt higher and stops should be set tight because low volume on a high or attempted high shows little interest and typically precedes selling.
ANST 02/28 Test BO 30.20 +0.14 31.01 35.95 207K 325K 29.28
Current. Nice doji at the 50 day EMA on rising average volume. Excellent position to move higher but with this market it may not be able to make the attempt just yet. Holding up very well, however.
ASCA 02/22 Cup hdl 32.98 -0.86 33.77 40.95 308K 325K 32.56
Current. Current. Faded right back to the 10 day EMA after the solid bump higher Monday. Lower volume and still a solid pattern. Also, sin stocks do better if the market goes soft on us.
ATW 03/10 Cup hdl 51.11 -0.84 52.55 60.45 624K 650K 50.72
Buy Not Issued. Jumped higher early, easily clearing the February high.
Could not hold the move, however, and sold back to
the 10 day EMA. False start but still looks solid and
will see how it reacts to this softer session in oil.
BA 02/03 Test BO 89.45 -1.75 91.65 102.95 5.2M 5.8M 89.78
Current. Sold back on the heels of that strong Monday move. Volume was lower but still above average as BA came back after that order for roughly $7B in planes. Needs to hold near this level and continue higher (50 day EMA at 88.72).
BWLD 03/03 DB hdl 56.29 +0.28 57.38 64.75 576K 450K 54.78
Entered today. Sprouted some wild wings and jumped higher on strong
volume but then got buffaloed in the selling, giving
up most of the gain. Still a solid pattern but never
like to see a good move get pushed back.
CAH 03/08 DB hdl 70.09 -1.79 72.25 82.95 2.5M 2.9M 69.57
Buy Not Issued. Gapped down to the 50 day EMA on strong, above avg
volume. So much for a breakout to a new high in the
near future. Now needs to rebuild some.
COG 03/01 PreSplt 65.69 -1.24 68.85 76.95 310K 700K 66.78
Buy Not Hit. Dropping for now to let it set up better above the
50 day EMA.
COG 02/13 PreAnn 65.69 -1.24 66.89 76.95 310K 833K 68.57
CXW 03/07 Test BO 51.46 -0.67 52.21 58.89 462K 450K 49.89
Buy Not Issued. In jail for now at the 18 day EMA, just riding out
the market upheaval. Of course, it is holding up very
well compared to the market overall as it continues
its test of the last move higher, the February gap.
CYTC 03/03 Test BO 32.60 -0.08 31.05 34.95 1.3M 1.1M 31.98
Current. Solid relative strength to the market, holding its big gains from last week as the rest of the market sells off. On its own path right now but don't want to give up a good gain if the selling starts to infect all market sectors.
DLTR 03/01 PreAnn 35.84 -0.82 34.65 39.95 1.8M 1.2M 35.95
Current. Gapped higher and then faded to give back much of the
Monday gap gain on the DG take out. Volume was lower
as it made this test. Will let it test and then see
if it can resume the strong move.
EXC 03/12 Test BO 64.95 -1.17 66.85 74.88 3.6M 4M 64.21
Entered today. Solid early move on stronger volume could not withstand
the market selling that followed. Gave the move back
and more, managing to cling to the 10 day EMA on the
close. From solid to so-so in less than a session.
FDX 02/20 Rev HS 112.69 -2.45 120.32 134.95 2.1M 2.5M 117.36
Exited. Could not hold the gains and started to slip below
the 50 day EMA so it was time to close it.
FLIR 03/05 Test 50 34.04 -1.17 34.65 39.35 382K 750K 33.98
Current. Flirting with the stop point but holdint some support
at 34 on teh close. Very low trade. Thus far holding
up but had a tougher session.
FOSL 03/10 PreAnn 26.10 -0.92 27.24 32.71 677K 600K 25.97
Buy Not Hit. Faded to the 18 day EMA on a volume surge. Held some
support at 26 but this move suggests it wants to fill
that February gap higher.
GES 03/03 PreSplt 40.81 -1.78 40.94 45.72 820K 845K 42.24
Exited. Did not weather the split well and with the low volume
at the second test of 43 it was not exhibiting any
real strength.
GIL 03/10 PreAnn 55.10 -0.29 55.35 63.75 152K 350K 53.89
Buy Not Issued. Stalled at 56 on the high once more fading modestly
on a very low volume session. Needs a test to better
set up the break higher, and a test of 54 would be
a great set up for the new high.
HMSY 03/06 Test 50 19.50 -0.03 20.11 23.88 329K 450K 18.87
Entered today. Surged to 20.45 on the high as volume moved higher. Could not hold the move and closed flat on slightly above avg volume. Was strong early but then was the victim of the market wide selling. Easily above support, but starting back over here.
KG 03/08 Cup hdl 18.40 -0.24 19.05 22.95 2.4M 3.8M 18.21
Buy Not Hit. Jumped higher early (18.91) but could not hold the move, fading back to the 18 day EMA, the support in the handle. Will just continue to watch and see if it delivers the breakout. Should be a 'safe' haven in the market selling.
NKE 03/01 PreSplt 104.60 -1.00 105.67 115.00 1.4M 2M 104.21
Current. Reached way down toward the 50 day EMA and rebounded
for a more modest loss and closing near the 18 day
EMA. Will see if this shakeout can clear a path to
another break higher.
NOV 03/06 PreAnn 72.45 -0.02 72.33 79.95 5.7M 4.3M 72.58
Current. Raced higher to 74.67 on the intraday high but gave
it all back to clsoe flat on the strongest volume in
over a month. Still in the uptrend as it closed above
the 10 day EMA.
NTGR 02/17 Dbl btm 26.69 -1.08 28.63 34.32 626K 1.1M 27.68
Exited. Closed the book on NTGR as it tried 28 and failed.
That was our watch point for this rebound attempt.
NX 01/23 Trnd Rv 40.17 -1.70 39.29 44.88 458K 500K 40.54
Current. Held the 18 day EMA on the close as volume was lower,
back to average. Support at 40 is the lick log. It
holds there or the aluminum support melts.
RIMM 02/24 Asc Bse 133.28 -3.59 145.31 159.95 7.5M 13M 142.22
Current. Sold to the 50 day EMA but is still in the recent consolidation
range. Letting it ride this out as it continues to
show strong relative strength.
RIMM 02/03 PreAnn 133.28 -3.59 135.96 154.89 7.5M 10M 142.22
Current.
RIO 03/06 Test 50 34.17 -1.47 35.17 39.95 12M 10M 34.21
Current. Faded back to some support at 34 as volume rose above
average. Key point for RIO TO hold though the 50 day
EMA is not far below at 32.90, and it should find some
support there.
RL 02/15 Asc Bse 83.87 -1.69 85.55 96.45 892K 1.2M 85.21
Current. Fell through the 18 day EMA on rising, average volume.
Likely to test the 50 day EMA (82.86), but that still
keeps it in the uptrend.
ROCM 03/10 DB hdl 18.02 +0.54 17.45 20.95 1.2M 350K 17.32
Current. Surged higher once more, hitting 18.83 on the high
with some huge grade. Gave a big chunk back to the
close. Still solid in this market and in a good sector
to move in this correction.
RS 03/06 Test 50 43.21 -1.63 45.00 51.45 768K 1M 43.94
Exited. Slid through teh 18 day EMA after making a lower high
so it was time to close it and see how it recovers
at the 50 day EMA (42.42).
SPN 03/12 DB hdl 32.89 -0.48 34.11 39.95 1.8M 2M 21.31
Buy Not Hit. Fading toward the 10 day EMA on rising, above avge
volume, setting up the handle further. Will let it
test and see if it delivers the breakout move.
SSYS 03/01 Test BO 39.72 -1.24 39.04 44.95 164K 175K 39.97
Current. Faded to test some of the strong prior move, but closed
easily above the 10 day EMA (39.25) on the close. Volume
remained below average.
SYK 02/22 FlyPlat 63.68 -0.35 64.03 73.42 2M 1.7M 62.04
Current. Holding nicely but bumped into the February high again (64.27) but could not push through despite some stronger above avg volume. Solid relative strength but likely to test a bit here again. The 10 day EMA (62.70) should hold it.
TALX 02/28 Test 18 32.63 -0.47 33.47 38.65 383K 900K 31.13
Buy Not Hit. Faded on low volume once more, holding near the mid-February
gap higher. Just being patient, waiting for it to finish
up and show us the upside move if it can.
UCTT 03/03 DB hdl 17.20 -0.56 16.41 19.45 439K 725K 16.55
Current. Holding up well on low volume as UCTT consolidates
its strong gains, refusing to give up its upside move.
VLO 03/07 DB hdl 60.19 -0.10 61.15 68.89 16M 12M 58.89
Entered today. Rallied nicely early on strong volume but then faded
to flat on the close, continuing the lateral move.
Everything was sold in the afternoon. Took some positions
and will look at more as VLO continues higher.
VMC 03/10 PreAnn 116.01 -3.30 120.55 134.85 1.5M 1.4M 116.85
Buy Not Hit. Dumped to the 18 day EMA on rising, above avg volume.
Still in the trend and will have to see how it responds
to this test of that uptrend.
VSEA 03/03 Test BO 48.42 -1.01 48.05 54.95 1.4M 2M 45.31
Buy Not Issued. Testing back, holding the 10 day EMA on the close.
Will see if it can hold the 48 ish level on this test
and give us an entry point as it resumes the move higher.
WFR 03/06 Test 50 55.19 -1.27 54.48 61.95 3.9M 5.4M 54.68
Current. Showing great relative strength as WFR moves laterally,
holding its gains on low volume.
XTO 01/30 PreAnn 50.19 -0.65 52.32 59.89 2.8M 4.5M 51.31
Current. Faded back toward the 50 day EMA though on very low
volume. Letting it make this test of some solid support
at 50.
Downside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
CCU 03/12 Put 34.75 -0.10 34.68 33.38 9.3M 6M 35.12
Buy Not Issued. Gapped lower but then rebounded right after that. Reversed to close basically flat but showing a doji on the candlestick chart. Given that pattern we held off to see if it will rebound over the next session to better set up the downside play.
CRI 02/27 Put 23.07 -0.70 23.66 22.00 501K 750K 24.21
Buy Not Issued. Turned lower on low volume. The downside momentum looks to have returned but volume has not. If it continues we can take some positions as the market is weaker and the pattern begs a hard drop.
CSE 03/10 Put 23.73 -0.86 24.50 23.21 3.5M 1.4M 24.04
Current. Diving lower on strong volume. Hit near the target
and bounced. On another blow down we will look at taking
some of that gain off the table, but it likely has
more downside beyond that.
GS 03/10 Put 199.03 -3.57 199.45 192.25 32M 8M 220.10
Current. Hit the 50 day MA on the high and reversed, a 9.5 point high to low move after showing great earnings. The market did not care and sold it off. The options bought late Monday are $2 profitable but there is still a lot of downside here.
LIZ 03/10 Put 42.41 -0.57 42.51 40.75 897K 1M 43.05
Buy Not Issued. Continues to waffle around the buy point, not showing
the breakaway. Looks ready to bounce more than sell
here as 42 appears to be pushing up on it.
PHRM 03/03 Put 26.25 -0.82 25.98 23.65 286K 600K 26.82
Buy Not Issued. Starting lower from the 90 day EMA. Volume was so-so. If it can continue lower and crack through 29 on some volume it is a buy for the rest of the move lower. Note that late Sept gap that has not been filled. Interesting.
SBUX 03/08 Put 29.36 -0.71 30.50 29.00 11M 10M 29.57
Current. Diving lower once more, coming close to the target
on the low. Another push lower and we will take some
of the gain off the table. Can still go much lower
from there.
SONC 02/27 Put 20.88 -0.39 21.35 20.00 1.2M 625K 21.11
Current. Finally heard the sonic boom as SONC took out 21 support
on the strongest volume in 2 months. Now it has the
freedome to free fall a bit.
SPY 03/07 Put 138.25 -2.74 140.74 136.88 190M 70M 138.55
Current. Diving lower on huge volume, spying the target. February
low is at 137.35 and might try to pause there, but
this sell off will likely take out that level.
TMO 03/01 HdShldr 44.94 -1.24 45.02 43.58 2.3M 3.5M 44.77
Current. Volume ticked higher as TMO fell back down from its
18 day EMA test. Want to see it slice through 44 on
this move. If it does so in a big move, watch for an
intraday rebound.
End part 2 of 3
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