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us stock market, stock split
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Good movers: ROCM; CSE; GS; SBUX; SONC; SPY; TMO
New Plays:
Upside:
New Post-Split Play:
Play Date: 03/13/2007
HOC (Holly Corp.--$56.45; +0.19; optionable): Oil and gas refining and marketing
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hoc.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-12-07
STATUS: Ascending base. Surged higher Tuesday to 58 on the high, but was unable to hold the gain, fading back to flat on the close and within the late February highs. Nice 14 week pattern, making higher lows up the 50 day EMA (53.78), and despite the reversal from the breakout on Tuesday, it is still set up well for the breakout to a new all-time high.
Volume: 697.1K Avg Volume: 696.005K
BUY POINT: $57.25 Volume=750K Target=$64.95 Stop=$54.95
POSITION: HOC FK - June $55c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/hoc.html
Downside:
Play Date: 03/13/2007
ABB (ABB Ltd.--$16.67; -0.40; optionable): Industrial electrical equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/abb.html
EARNINGS: 4-26-07
STATUS: Head and shoulders. Gapped lower in late February, starting the breakdown from its 9 week topping pattern. Volume surged as it fell. It rebounded the past week, but is failing at the 90 day MA (17.00), falling Tuesday on a sharp jump in volume. Money flow is heading lower and we are looking to move in as ABB continues downside. A move to the target lands a 43%ish gain.
Volume: 3.594M Avg Volume: 2.456M
BUY POINT: $16.55 Volume=2.5M Target=$15.10 Stop=$17.04
POSITION: ABB RW - June $17.50p (-46 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/abb.html
Play Date: 03/13/2007
ABC (Amerisourcebergen--$51.11; -1.33; optionable): Wholesale drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/abc.html
EARNINGS: 4-25-06
STATUS: Head and shoulders. Volume jumped Tuesday as ABC broke lower from its 7 week topping pattern, falling to the 50 day SMA (51.03) on the close. ABC gapped higher in late January on its earnings, but it ran out of volume in mid-February as it made a new all-time high; always a bad sign, at least for the upside. It bounced off the 50 day EMA last week but it is going to make the fade here, likely to fill the gap down near 48. A move to our target lands a 55%ish gain. If it falls further to fill the gap we will let it.
Volume: 2.174M Avg Volume: 1.493M
BUY POINT: $50.94 Volume=1.5M Target=$49.00 Stop=$51.38
POSITION: ABC QJ - May $50p (-46 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/abc.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We consider many stocks for pre-announcement plays every week. We get information regarding upcoming announcements and other data that leads us to conclude a split announcement is coming. Even then, however, we have to be discriminating. We have to see a strong technical pattern as well, and thus we reject many potential candidates based on a weak technical position. Some we consider have announced, but have not fared well given their technical patterns were weak to begin with.
The key today is to find stocks in strong patterns or that are ready to rebound off support. A split announcement will amplify the move higher in these cases as we enjoy moves from strong leaders in position to run higher. We won't chase a stock in a poor technical position even if we know it is going to split; it simply won't do us any good, i.e. it won't make us any money to the upside. We could list all stocks we think are going to split, but again, that won't make us any money unless we are in an office pool as to what stocks will or won't announce a stock split.
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern and of course the strong earnings growth that put it in the pattern in the first place.
BA: Researching the date
CAH: Tentatively forecast for 4-26-07
CLE: Tentatively forecast 3-15-07. This is the week but CLE dumped hard Tuesday and does not look good even if it does announce a split.
DLTR: Announced earnings 2-28-07. Researching the date.
EXC: Researching date. Up Monday back toward the 18 day EMA Tuesday.
FDX: Forecast 3-21-07
FOSL: Forecast mid-May
GIL: Forecast early May
JCI: Researching the date. Announced earnings late January.
NOV: Researching date. Announced earnings 2-6-07
POT: Tentatively set for third week in April.
RL: Researching date. Announced earnings 2-7-07.
RIMM: Tentatively set 4-4-07
VMC: Forecast late April
VSEA: Tentatively set for early May.
YUM: Forecast 5-1-07. Bounced back from the 200 day SMA, but in a weak pattern at the 10 day EMA.
NEW PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 03/13/2007
MCHP (Microchip--$36.53; -0.47; optionable): PIC semiconductors. Tentatively forecast 4-26-07
BAKCGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split on 4-11-02 at 42.70.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mchp.html
EARNINGS: 4-26-07
STATUS: Cup. As most people are running for cover we are looking at those stocks holding up well. Semiconductors have not sold with the rest of the market but instead are forming up strong patterns. MCHP is one of those; it has cranked out a nice 11 month base and is approaching the April and May highs from 2006 that started the base. It will take more time to complete the pattern and deliver the breakout, but these are the stocks we want to bird dog and be ready to move into as the selling dissipates and they start their breaks higher.
Volume: 2.253M Avg Volume: 2.097M
BUY POINT: $37.21 Volume=3.1M Target=$42.88 Stop=$35.98
POSITION: QMT GG - July $35c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mchp.html
Play Date: 03/13/2007
MM (Metal Management--$41.20; -0.05; optionable): Steel and iron
BACKGROUND: Last split 2:1 on 4-21-04 at $42.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mm.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-6-07
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. MM has formed a short 6 week base over the 50 day EMA (39.26), using that key level as support as it consolidates the November breakout and run higher from a 7 month base. Excellent action giving it a breather before it breaks to a new all-time high. Volume jumped back above average Monday as it tapped the 18 day EMA on the low and rebounded for a modest loss. It was even stronger Tuesday as it tested down to the 50 day EMA and rebounded to close flat. Good shakeout. Just have to sit back and wait for the breakout move.
Volume: 643.2K Avg Volume: 363.457K
BUY POINT: $42.12 Volume=545K Target=$48.65 Stop=$40.11
POSITION: MM GH - July $40c (75 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mm.html
Play Date: 03/13/2007
MRO (Marathon Oil--$91.84; -1.68; optionable): Oil and gas refining, marketing.
BACKGROUND: No splits in MRO's history
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mro.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-1-07
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Struggle during the Tuesday session, fading back to the 18 day EMA on the close as volume remained below average. Working on the handle to a somewhat skewed 12 week cup base that used the 200 day SMA on the low as support and then rallied higher, using the 50 day EMA (90.68) as support as it trended higher the past 6 weeks. Setting up for a new all-time high. Has some more work to do but is setting up well for the next breakout move once this selling is through.
Volume: 3.45M Avg Volume: 3.517M
BUY POINT: $95.25 Volume=5.3M Target=$107.95 Stop=$92.45
POSITION: MRO GS - July $95c (53 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mro.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS:
Play Date: 03/12/2007
SPN (Superior Energy--$32.89; -0.48; optionable): Oil and gas service company
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/spn.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-26-07
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Slipped back further Tuesday, moving toward the 10 day EMA (32.49) and still forming the handle to its base. Still a bit more work to do but getting in position for the break higher. To recap: Setting up a very nice handle to its 12 week base, starting laterally last Thursday on low, below average volume. Part of a larger 11 month reverse head and shoulders base, SPN is in excellent position to run higher and make the break toward a new all-time high. Looks super.
Volume: 1.826M Avg Volume: 1.34M
BUY POINT: $34.11 Volume=2M Target=$39.95 Stop=$21.31
POSITION: SPN IG - Sept. $35c (54 delta) or SPN FF - June $30c (73 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/spn.html
CONTINUING DOWNSIDE PLAYS:
Play Date: 02/27/2007
CRI (Carter Holdings--$23.07; -0.70; optionable): Apparel
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cri.html
STATUS: Put. Started lower again on Tuesday, landing on some support at 23 and holding, unable to push lower given the continued low volume. Money flow is still heading lower and looking to move in as CRI breaks through this level and heads lower. To recap: Sliding lower down the 18 day EMA after recovering from that nasty gap lower in mid-February. Now it looks ready to head lower.
Volume: 500.9K Avg Volume: 846.59K
BUY POINT: New: $22.95 (orig. $23.66) Volume=750K Target=$21.45 Stop=$24.21
POSITION: CRI PE - Apr. $25p (-56 delta, 75 OI)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cri.html
Play Date: 03/03/2007
PHRM (Pharmion--$26.25; -0.82; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/phrm.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-21-07
STATUS: Put. After three dojis at the 90 day MA (27) PHRM is ready to turn lower once more as it started downside Tuesday on rising though still below average volume. Money flow is weak and PHRM is ready to fall from here.
Volume: 286.368K Avg Volume: 415.007K
BUY POINT: $25.98 Volume=600K Target=$23.65 Stop=$26.82
POSITION: JUF PE - Apr. $25p (-42 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/phrm.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
stock split
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