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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: BRCD; MM; RIO; VLO; WNR; CSE; SBUX; SPY
New Plays:
Upside: There are some great looking upside plays that are set up to move if the market is going to make a bounce higher.
Play Date: 03/14/2007
BEAV (BE Aerospace--$30.73; +1.88; optionable): Cabin interior products for commercial, business jets
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/beav.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-5-07
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Strong volume Wednesday as BEAV jumped off the 50 day EMA (29.20), looking ready to continue its breakout run. It broke out from a 8 month cup with handle base in January and rallied to 32. It tested back, selling to the 50 day EMA during the harsh market pullback. It held, showing some excellent relative strength. That shows character, and that was coming out Wednesday in the price and volume action. Money flow has turned up sharply as BEAV heads for a new decade high. Strong fundamentals growth rates to go along with the strong pattern.
Volume: 1.619M Avg Volume: 905.035K
BUY POINT: $31.11 Volume=1M Target=$36.95 Stop=$28.93
POSITION: BGV GF - July $30c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/beav.html
Play Date: 03/14/2007
CNMD (Conmed--$27.69; +0.74; optionable): Surgical devices and equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cnmd.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-8-07
STATUS: Cup w/handle. CNMD is working on the handle to a large 22 month base. Surged higher in February on strong earnings results, finishing the right side of the base. It is using the market selling to test back in a very orderly manner, holding the 18 day EMA (27.21) as it does. Volume jumped higher Wednesday to the best level in a month (since the break higher on the earnings), and that is moving CNMD off the bottom of the handle. Looking at an aggressive position as it continues higher and then will wait for a test to add some more. Strong money flow has turned higher and CNMD looks to be in very good position to make the breakout.
Volume: 510.507K Avg Volume: 234.407K
BUY POINT: $27.94 Volume=350K Target=$32.95 Stop=$26.49
POSITION: KQD HE - Aug. $25c (69 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cnmd.html
Play Date: 03/14/2007
FORM (Formfactor--$45.17; -0.07; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/form.html
EARNINGS: Announced 1-31-07
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Making a higher low at the 10 day EMA (44.70), showing a doji at that level Wednesday as it tested back on low volume. A steady 7 month base that has weathered a lot of issues in the market. It sold back in late February in the general selling, but it held the 50 day EMA and recovered nicely the past week and one-half. Barely noticed the Tuesday selling fading back on lower, below. In short, no sellers as it makes its test back. Nice base setting it up for the breakout to a new all-time high. As we have noted, semis are in a lateral base and some are in much better shape; FORM is one of those.
Volume: 617.543K Avg Volume: 827.245K
BUY POINT: $46.69 Volume=1.2M Target=$55.95 Stop=$44.11
POSITION: AFU GI - July $45c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/form.html
Play Date: 03/14/2007
OIH (Oil Services Hldrs Trust--$139.26; +1.66; optionable): Energy service company EFT
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/oih.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. OIH is working laterally the past 6 weeks as it continues a long 11 month base. It came off a low hit in early January and is making a higher low at 140. We like the way the energy sector is picking up and we like how OIH has a nice 10 points or so from here to its December high at 150. That gives us a nice range to trade the next break higher. It showed a good volume spike Wednesday as it held steady below resistance. Looks as if it is crouching, reading to spring higher. A move to the target lands a 55%ish gain.
Volume: 14.692M Avg Volume: 10.999M
BUY POINT: $140.88 Volume=16M Target=$149.95 Stop=$136.45
POSITION: OIH GH - July $140c (57 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/oih.html
Downside:
Play Date: 03/14/2007
CL (Colgate-Palmolive--$65.33; -0.54; optionable): Personal products
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cl.html
EARNINGS: 1-30-07
STATUS: Head and shoulders. CL is breaking lower from an 8 week topping pattern, falling through the 90 day MA (66.16) on strong volume Wednesday. Money flow is diving lower ahead of price and CL is going to follow it. Looking to move in as it continues lower. A run to the target lands a 42%ish gain.
Volume: 3.223M Avg Volume: 1.949M
BUY POINT: $65.21 Volume=2M Target=$63.75 Stop=$65.91
POSITION: CL QM - May $65p (-42 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cl.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 03/13/2007
IVN (Ivanhoe Mines--$11.31; -0.18; optionable): Copper and gold
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ivn.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-6-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Nice hammer doji at the 10 day EMA (11.22) Wednesday as IVN put the finishing touches on its test of its strong breakout. Textbook move and now ready to continue higher. When it makes its move we make ours. To recap: IVN surged to a new all-time high last week as it broke out from an 18 week base, rallying on strong volume. It is coming back to test the move this week, tapping at the 10 day EMA on the Wednesday low and rebounding to recoup some losses. Will let it finish this test; it may come back to test this level further, but when it rebounds we want to be ready to move in
Volume: 904.8K Avg Volume: 600.387K
BUY POINT: $11.65 Volume=1.2M Target=$14.35 Stop=$10.85
POSITION: IVN FB - June $10c (70 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ivn.html
Play Date: 03/12/2007
SPN (Superior Energy--$33.23; +0.34; optionable): Oil and gas service company
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/spn.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-26-07
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Still working on the handle and doing a very nice job of it, tapping at the 10 day EMA (32.63) on the low and bouncing. Excellent set up for the breakout. To recap: Setting up a very nice handle to its 12 week base, starting laterally last Thursday on low, below average volume. Part of a larger 11 month reverse head and shoulders base, SPN is in excellent position to run higher and make the break toward a new all-time high. Looks super.
Volume: 1.15M Avg Volume: 1.352M
BUY POINT: $34.11 Volume=2M Target=$39.95 Stop=$21.31
POSITION: SPN IG - Sept. $35c (54 delta) or SPN FF - June $30c (73 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/spn.html
Play Date: 03/03/2007
VCLK (Valueclick--$26.71; +0.33; optionable): Internet advertising services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vclk.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-21-07
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Still working laterally along the 50 day EMA (25.66) on very low, below average volume. It broke higher right before the market selling started, and that sent it back down into the lateral range once more. It barely budged on the Tuesday selling, and after an intraday test of the 50 day EMA Wednesday, it rebounded for a gain. Just waiting for the breakout move to show itself.
Volume: 1.498M Avg Volume: 1.906M
BUY POINT: $26.87 Volume=2.9M Target=$31.95 Stop=$25.32
POSITION: QCS FE - June $25c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/vclk.html
Play Date: 03/05/2007
VSEA (Varian Semiconductor--$49.21; +0.79; optionable): Semiconductor equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vsea.html
EARNINGS: Late April
STATUS: Test breakout. Setting up very nicely for the next move higher, having remarkably ignored the market selling. It pulled back in early March, but it bounced right back up and continued the mostly lateral move that turned into a short reverse head and shoulders. Tapped the 18 day EMA (47.64) on the intraday low Wednesday and rebounded positive on rising, average volume. If it breaks higher from here on some volume we are ready to move in.
Volume: 1.495M Avg Volume: 1.53M
BUY POINT: New: $49.82 (orig. $48.05) Volume=2M Target=$56.88 Stop=$45.31
POSITION: UES HJ - Aug. $50c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/vsea.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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