stock recommendation, stock option

Begin part 3 of 3

THE PLAYS

Good movers: RIO; WEBX; WNR

New Plays:

Upside:

Play Date: 03/15/2007
FORM (Formfactor--$45.41; +0.24; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/form.html
EARNINGS: Announced 1-31-07
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Making a higher low at the 10 day EMA (44.83), showing a doji at that level Wednesday and Thursday as it tested back on low volume. A steady 7 month base that has weathered a lot of issues in the market. It sold back in late February in the general selling, but it held the 50 day EMA and recovered nicely the past week and one-half. Barely noticed the Tuesday selling fading back on lower, below. In short, no sellers as it makes its test back. Nice base setting it up for the breakout to a new all-time high. As we have noted, semis are in a lateral base and some are in much better shape; FORM is one of those.
Volume: 375.055K Avg Volume: 827.245K
BUY POINT: $46.69 Volume=1.2M Target=$55.95 Stop=$44.11
POSITION: AFU GI - July $45c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/form.html

Play Date: 03/15/2007
IDC (Interactive Data Corp.--$24.66; +0.78; no options): Data delivery (market information, etc.)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/idc.html
EARNINGS: 4-26-07
STATUS: Flat. IDC is breaking higher from a 15 week lateral move, rallying on strong volume the past two sessions as it started higher off the 90 day MA (23.55). This base consolidated the late October breakout from a double bottom with handle base. Nice rally to 24, then the current lateral move. It is breaking to an 8 year high on the move. Relative strength is breaking out with it, a very good indication of the stock's overall strength. Strong money flow is leading higher. Ready to move in as it makes the breakout move.
Volume: 438.9K Avg Volume: 225.09K
BUY POINT: $24.91 Volume=338K Target=$28.75 Stop=$23.57
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/idc.html

Play Date: 03/15/2007
SIGA (Siga Pharmaceuticals--$4.38; +0.05; no options): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/siga.html
STATUS: Ascending base. Nice test of a sharp break higher to start March, fading back to the 10 day EMA (4.30) this week on low volume, setting up the next break higher. Nice series of higher lows below the constant top near 5. That is building pressure fore the breakout. Strong money flow is leading the way higher and excellent 7 to 2 accumulation in the pattern (7 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume) shows excellent buying to support a strong run. Nice set up and looking for more volume as it continues higher.
Volume: 331.597K Avg Volume: 1.332M
BUY POINT: $4.68 Volume=1.6M Target=$5.78 Stop=$4.35
POSITION:
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/siga.html

Downside:

Play Date: 03/15/2007
AEO (American Eagle Outfitters--$29.98; -0.52; optionable): Apparel stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aeo.html
EARNINGS: 5-22-07
STATUS: Put. AEO recently moved to the NYSE, but that is not helping it a whole lot. It has formed a 15 week head and shoulders top and broke lower to start March, falling to the 200 day SMA (28.15) on the low. It bounced and tried to recover support at the 50 and 90 day MA, but is failing, sliding lower along the 18 day EMA (30.51) this week. Looks ready to follow the weakening money flow lower. A move to the target lands a 40%ish base.
Volume: 3.288M Avg Volume: 4.12M
BUY POINT: $29.86 Volume=4.2M Target=$28.11 Stop=$30.39
POSITION: AEO QF - May $30p (-43 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/aeo.html

SUBSCRIBER PORTFOLIO: These are stocks subscribers suggest by vote that we put in a portfolio to track and move into the stocks if they perform well. If you have any suggestions for additions or deletions, email us. We don't cover them all each report, just when something interesting is developing.

AAPL, AKAM, CELG, DRIV, GME, GOOG, ISE, MA, MRVL, NVDA, WEBX

AKAM: Not too promising here below the 90 day MA after bouncing to that level Tuesday on the upgrade. Fading back on lower trade. Some support at 50 that it needs to hold if it is going to move over the 50 and 90 day MA.

GME: Making a higher low and trying to get through the 90 day MA. Has to clear 55 on some volume to show it is back and ready to move higher.

GOOG: Still trying for a double bottom at the 200 day SMA.

ISE: Got hot and bothered over the ICE bid for BOT. Gapped up to the 90 day MA but could not move past it. Still setting up the base.

WEBX: Gapped up 10 sticks on the Cisco buyout. Like the action, hate the news because we love to play WEBX.

Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff

All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.

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