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us stock market, stock recommendation
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: ANST; HMSY; SYK; TK; GS; SONC
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 03/17/2007
HNT (Healthnet--$54.18; +0.51; optionable): Managed healthcare services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hnt.html
EARNINGS: 4-30-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Some solid upside volume spikes last week on the up days shows the buyers are piling into HNT as it works laterally the past 5 weeks, consolidating the strong February break higher from a 14 month base. Strong volume on the break higher that took HNT to a new all-time high. Excellent lateral consolidation is setting up the next move, and the strong upside volume sessions last week tell us to be ready for that move soon. Excellent pattern and strong fundamentals growth rates provide a great combination for another surge higher.
Volume: 1.737M Avg Volume: 1.02M
BUY POINT: $54.88 Volume=1.5M Target=$62.95 Stop=$52.72
POSITION: HNT GK - July $55c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/hnt.html
Play Date: 03/17/2007
GLDN (Golden Telecom--$52.71; +2.93; optionable): Telecom and internet services in Russia
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gldn.html
EARNINGS: 3-15-07
STATUS: Double bottom. Strong volume Friday as GLDN surged off the 90 day MA (47.60), its second test of that level this month. Strong earnings sent it higher and completed the breakout from this short double bottom. A strong run with the market from August to February, it corrected hard to form this pattern; the double bottom is the 'scare them out' of the base world. Nice, sharp up and down action and starting back up. Looking to take positions on the move higher and then again after it forms something of a handle and makes the next breakout.
Volume: 722.631K Avg Volume: 256.61K
BUY POINT: $53.12 Volume=385K Target=$63.75 Stop=$51.04
POSITION: QDV FK - June $55c (49 delta) or QDV FJ - June $50c (61 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/gldn.html
Play Date: 03/17/2007
NUAN (Nuance Communications--$14.26; +0.22; optionable): Voice recognition software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nuan.html
EARNINGS: 2-5-07
STATUS: Double bottom. NUAN made a quick two bottoms in the March selling, testing the February breakout from a large 9 month cup with handle. Rallied to 15 on the high and this is a nice 5 week base is setting up another move to a new 10 year high. Looking to take some positions as it continues breaking higher and then again on a test that forms a handle to the short pattern. Excellent technical pattern and solid fundamentals growth rates to go with it.
Volume: 5.209M Avg Volume: 3.956M
BUY POINT: $14.38 Volume=5.5M Target=$17.65 Stop=$13.77
POSITION: SSQ GV - July $12.50c (73 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/nuan.html
Play Date: 03/17/2007
ROCM (Rochester Medical--$18.30; -0.43; no options): Urinary continence products for extended & acute care markets
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rocm.html
EARNINGS: Announced 1-23-07
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Fading back to test the strong early week move that broke it out of its 7 week double bottom that formed over the 50 day EMA (15.59). Consolidating a nice January to early February run, this is a nice pattern setting up for more upside. Likely to come back to test a bit more, but want to be ready to move in as it continues higher to a new all-time high. Excellent fundamentals growth rates and a strong technical pattern.
Volume: 245.739K Avg Volume: 283.818K
BUY POINT: From the Friday close: $18.65. Test the 10 day EMA (17.44): 18.05 on the rebound. Volume=425K Target=$22.45 Stop=$17.57
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/rocm.html
Play Date: 03/17/2007
SSYS (Stratasys--$39.97; -0.25; optionable): Rapid prototyping devices and 3-D printing systems
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/ssys.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-15-07
STATUS: Breakout test. SSYS gapped higher in mid-February on its earnings report, clearing a solid 10 month cup with handle. This is the second test of that breakout, a nice easy test of the 10 day EMA (39.65) last week as the rest of the market struggled. Looks ripe for the next break higher. Some very strong fundamentals growth rates to go along with the strong pattern.
Volume: 192.141K Avg Volume: 139.317K
BUY POINT: $40.55 Volume=205K Target=$46.65 Stop=$39.41
POSITION: QQG FH - June $40c (56 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ssys.html
Downside:
Play Date: 03/17/2007
AMP (Ameriprise Financial--$55.15; -0.36; optionable): Asset management
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amp.html
EARNINGS: 1-25-07
STATUS: Head and shoulders. Nasty plunge lower Tuesday through the 90 day MA (56.51), tanking on heavy volume as it consummated the 10 week topping pattern. It bounced back Wednesday and Thursday but stalled at the 90 day MA on the interim highs. It turned back down Friday from that resistance, falling on much stronger, above average volume. Money flow is tanking ahead of price, and with this rollover to end last week, price is ready to follow it lower. A move to the target lands a 45%ish gain.
Volume: 2.28M Avg Volume: 1.243M
BUY POINT: $54.95 Volume=1.4M Target=$52.45 Stop=$55.55
POSITION: AMP QK - May $55p (-44 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/amp.html
Play Date: 03/17/2007
C (Citigroup--$49.53; -0.60; optionable): Banks, financial services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/c.html
EARNINGS: 4-16-07
STATUS: Head and shoulders. C collapsed to end February, dropping hard out of a 9 week topping pattern, It tried to hold the 200 day SMA (50.65) through the first two weeks of March, but on Tuesday that attempt to consolidate gave way. It reversed Wednesday after another plunge to 48 and tested the 10 day EMA (50.04) Thursday and Friday. Friday it rolled back down on the strongest volume of the week. That looks like a failed test of near support. Ready to move in as it continues lower. A move to the target lands a 42%ish gain. Looking at April options as they deliver the best bang for the buck and the stock is already turning lower.
Volume: 30.816M Avg Volume: 19.949M
BUY POINT: $49.39 Volume=22M Target=$48.12 Stop=$50.08
POSITION: C PJ - Apr. $50p (-51 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/c.html
Play Date: 03/17/2007
TOL (Toll Brothers--$28.40; -0.42; optionable): Residential home builders
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tol.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-22-07
STATUS: Head and shoulders. TOL gapped below the 90 day MA in late February, starting the breakdown from its January to February head and shoulders topping pattern. This pattern formed following a recovery in the housing stocks off of the July 2006 low. That recovery is in the tank as the stocks break down again. This is TOL's second test of the 10 day EMA (28.80) following that gap lower, and it also has the added ice layer from the 200 day SMA (28.76) that it fell through and has now rebounded back up to. It slipped Friday, and we are looking for more downside. A move to the target with the April options lands a 46%ish gain. The May options around 38%.
Volume: 3.186M Avg Volume: 3.406M
BUY POINT: $28.15 Volume=3.8M Target=$26.12 Stop=$28.88
POSITION: TOP PF - Apr. $30p (-59 delta) or TOP QF - May $30p (-55 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/tol.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
stock recommendation
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