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us stock market, stock split
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Good movers: ANST; HMSY; NKE; SYK; TK; GS; SONC
New Plays:
Upside:
New Post-Split Play:
Play Date: 03/17/2007
BKE (Buckle, Inc.--$34.66; -0.26; no options): Apparel stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bke.html
EARNINGS: Announced 3-13-07
STATUS: Ascending base. Split in mid-January and after its run it needed a rest. Thus the current base that is making higher lows and not giving up any of the gains. Announced earnings last week, and while they did not break BKE out of its 13 week base, they did not send it spiraling lower. Indeed, it held the 50 day EMA (34.25), making a higher low in the base as it goes about its business setting up for the next breakout and new high. It is a strong performer but want to see it clear the recent highs on strong volume to show us that the buyers are back in and ready to really drive it higher.
Volume: 180.1K Avg Volume: 157.465K
BUY POINT: $35.94 Volume=235K Target=$41.38 Stop=$34.25
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bke.html
New buy point on current position:
Play Date: 03/17/2007
ROCM (Rochester Medical--$18.30; -0.43; no options): Urinary continence products for extended & acute care markets
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rocm.html
EARNINGS: Announced 1-23-07
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Fading back to test the strong early week move that broke it out of its 7 week double bottom that formed over the 50 day EMA (15.59). Consolidating a nice January to early February run, this is a nice pattern setting up for more upside. Likely to come back to test a bit more, but want to be ready to move in as it continues higher to a new all-time high. Excellent fundamentals growth rates and a strong technical pattern.
Volume: 245.739K Avg Volume: 283.818K
BUY POINT: From the Friday close: $18.65. Test the 10 day EMA (17.44): 18.05 on the rebound. Volume=425K Target=$22.45 Stop=$17.57
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/rocm.html
Leaders:
Play Date: 03/17/2007
HNT (Healthnet--$54.18; +0.51; optionable): Managed healthcare services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hnt.html
EARNINGS: 4-30-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Some solid upside volume spikes last week on the up days shows the buyers are piling into HNT as it works laterally the past 5 weeks, consolidating the strong February break higher from a 14 month base. Strong volume on the break higher that took HNT to a new all-time high. Excellent lateral consolidation is setting up the next move, and the strong upside volume sessions last week tell us to be ready for that move soon. Excellent pattern and strong fundamentals growth rates provide a great combination for another surge higher.
Volume: 1.737M Avg Volume: 1.02M
BUY POINT: $54.88 Volume=1.5M Target=$62.95 Stop=$52.72
POSITION: HNT GK - July $55c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/hnt.html
Play Date: 03/17/2007
GLDN (Golden Telecom--$52.71; +2.93; optionable): Telecom and internet services in Russia
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gldn.html
EARNINGS: 3-15-07
STATUS: Double bottom. Strong volume Friday as GLDN surged off the 90 day MA (47.60), its second test of that level this month. Strong earnings sent it higher and completed the breakout from this short double bottom. A strong run with the market from August to February, it corrected hard to form this pattern; the double bottom is the 'scare them out' of the base world. Nice, sharp up and down action and starting back up. Looking to take positions on the move higher and then again after it forms something of a handle and makes the next breakout.
Volume: 722.631K Avg Volume: 256.61K
BUY POINT: $53.12 Volume=385K Target=$63.75 Stop=$51.04
POSITION: QDV FK - June $55c (49 delta) or QDV FJ - June $50c (61 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/gldn.html
Downside:
Play Date: 03/17/2007
AMP (Ameriprise Financial--$55.15; -0.36; optionable): Asset management
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amp.html
EARNINGS: 1-25-07
STATUS: Head and shoulders. Nasty plunge lower Tuesday through the 90 day MA (56.51), tanking on heavy volume as it consummated the 10 week topping pattern. It bounced back Wednesday and Thursday but stalled at the 90 day MA on the interim highs. It turned back down Friday from that resistance, falling on much stronger, above average volume. Money flow is tanking ahead of price, and with this rollover to end last week, price is ready to follow it lower. A move to the target lands a 45%ish gain.
Volume: 2.28M Avg Volume: 1.243M
BUY POINT: $54.95 Volume=1.4M Target=$52.45 Stop=$55.55
POSITION: AMP QK - May $55p (-44 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/amp.html
Play Date: 03/17/2007
C (Citigroup--$49.53; -0.60; optionable): Banks, financial services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/c.html
EARNINGS: 4-16-07
STATUS: Head and shoulders. You hear the one about the blond, the brunette and the guy with bad dandruff on the elevator? Maybe another time. C collapsed to end February, dropping hard out of a 9 week topping pattern, It tried to hold the 200 day SMA (50.65) through the first two weeks of March, but on Tuesday that attempt to consolidate gave way. It reversed Wednesday after another plunge to 48 and tested the 10 day EMA (50.04) Thursday and Friday. Friday it rolled back down on the strongest volume of the week. That looks like a failed test of near support. Ready to move in as it continues lower. A move to the target lands a 42%ish gain. Looking at April options as they deliver the best bang for the buck and the stock is already turning lower.
Volume: 30.816M Avg Volume: 19.949M
BUY POINT: $49.39 Volume=22M Target=$48.12 Stop=$50.08
POSITION: C PJ - Apr. $50p (-51 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/c.html
Play Date: 03/17/2007
TOL (Toll Brothers--$28.40; -0.42; optionable): Residential home builders
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tol.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-22-07
STATUS: Head and shoulders. TOL gapped below the 90 day MA in late February, starting the breakdown from its January to February head and shoulders topping pattern. This pattern formed following a recovery in the housing stocks off of the July 2006 low. That recovery is in the tank as the stocks break down again. This is TOL's second test of the 10 day EMA (28.80) following that gap lower, and it also has the added ice layer from the 200 day SMA (28.76) that it fell through and has now rebounded back up to. It slipped Friday, and we are looking for more downside. A move to the target with the April options lands a 46%ish gain. The May options around 38%.
Volume: 3.186M Avg Volume: 3.406M
BUY POINT: $28.15 Volume=3.8M Target=$26.12 Stop=$28.88
POSITION: TOP PF - Apr. $30p (-59 delta) or TOP QF - May $30p (-55 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/tol.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We consider many stocks for pre-announcement plays every week. We get information regarding upcoming announcements and other data that leads us to conclude a split announcement is coming. Even then, however, we have to be discriminating. We have to see a strong technical pattern as well, and thus we reject many potential candidates based on a weak technical position. Some we consider have announced, but have not fared well given their technical patterns were weak to begin with.
The key today is to find stocks in strong patterns or that are ready to rebound off support. A split announcement will amplify the move higher in these cases as we enjoy moves from strong leaders in position to run higher. We won't chase a stock in a poor technical position even if we know it is going to split; it simply won't do us any good, i.e. it won't make us any money to the upside. We could list all stocks we think are going to split, but again, that won't make us any money unless we are in an office pool as to what stocks will or won't announce a stock split.
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern and of course the strong earnings growth that put it in the pattern in the first place.
BA: Researching the date
CAH: Tentatively forecast for 4-26-07
CMTL: Researching date
CNMD: Forecast early May
DLTR: Announced earnings 2-28-07. Researching the date.
EXC: Researching date
FDX: Forecast 3-21-07
FOSL: Forecast mid-May
GIL: Forecast early May
JCI: Researching the date. Announced earnings late January.
MCHP: Tentatively set for 4-26-07
MM: Tentatively set for late March.
MRO: Forecast early May.
NOV: Researching date. Announced earnings 2-6-07
PD: Forecast early May
POT: Tentatively set for third week in April.
RL: Researching date. Announced earnings 2-7-07.
RIMM: Tentatively set 4-4-07
SSYS: Forecast early May
VMC: Forecast late April
VSEA: Tentatively set for early May.
NEW PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
New buy point on current play:
Play Date: 03/17/2007
SSYS (Stratasys--$39.97; -0.25; optionable): Rapid prototyping devices and 3-D printing systems
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split on 11-5-03 at $42.90.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/ssys.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-15-07
STATUS: Breakout test. SSYS gapped higher in mid-February on its earnings report, clearing a solid 10 month cup with handle. This is the second test of that breakout, a nice easy test of the 10 day EMA (39.65) last week as the rest of the market struggled. Looks ripe for the next break higher. Some very strong fundamentals growth rates to go along with the strong pattern.
Volume: 192.141K Avg Volume: 139.317K
BUY POINT: $40.55 Volume=205K Target=$46.65 Stop=$39.41
POSITION: QQG FH - June $40c (56 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ssys.html
CONTINUING PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 03/14/2007
CMTL (Comtech Telecom--$36.91; 0.00; optionable): Telecom systems
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split on 3-9-05 at $36.40
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cmtl.html
EARNINGS: 3-8-07
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. A second straight doji over the 90 day MA (36.56) has CMTL in good position to move higher this week. Just waiting for the breakout move. To recap: Kind of a skewed 4 month pattern, heavy on the downside the past month (thanks to the market), but holding support at the 200 day SMA and rebounding. It is working laterally and forming the handle now, using the 50 day EMA (35.82) on the lows as support. Part of a larger 16 month cup with handle base, the current pattern being the handle. Excellent fundamentals growth rates to go along with the pattern. Looking for volume to surge again as it did Friday and Monday on its strong earnings to send it to the breakout.
Volume: 248.421K Avg Volume: 196.932K
BUY POINT: $37.85 Volume=345K Target=$43.85 Stop=$35.78
POSITION: CQH GG - July $35c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cmtl.html
Play Date: 03/14/2007
CNMD (Conmed--$27.80; -0.05; optionable): Surgical devices and equipment
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split on 8-9-01 at $32.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cnmd.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-8-07
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Volume was up last week on the upside sessions, indicating there are buyers ready to push CNMD higher after this breakout test. Solid leader looking solid for the resumed breakout run. To recap: CNMD is working on the handle to a large 22 month base. Surged higher in February on strong earnings results, finishing the right side of the base. It is using the market selling to test back in a very orderly manner, holding the 18 day EMA (27.33) as it does. Volume jumped higher Wednesday to the best level in a month (since the break higher on the earnings), and that is moving CNMD off the bottom of the handle. Looking at an aggressive position as it continues higher and then will wait for a test to add some more. Strong money flow has turned higher and CNMD looks to be in very good position to make the breakout.
Volume: 403.602K Avg Volume: 239.807K
BUY POINT: $27.94 Volume=350K Target=$32.95 Stop=$26.49
POSITION: KQD HE - Aug. $25c (69 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cnmd.html
CONTINUING DOWNSIDE PLAYS:
Play Date: 03/15/2007
AEO (American Eagle Outfitters--$29.98; -0.52; optionable): Apparel stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aeo.html
EARNINGS: 5-22-07
STATUS: Put. Doji below the 10 day EMA (30.14) Friday as AEO struggles to hang on below near resistance after rebounding to test it following the early March collapse. Looking for a turn back down this week. To recap: AEO recently moved to the NYSE, but that is not helping it a whole lot. It has formed a 15 week head and shoulders top and broke lower to start March, falling to the 200 day SMA (28.19) on the low. It bounced and tried to recover support at the 50 and 90 day MA, but is failing, sliding lower along the 18 day EMA (30.44) last week. Looks ready to follow the weakening money flow lower. A move to the target lands a 40%ish gain.
Volume: 3.288M Avg Volume: 4.12M
BUY POINT: $29.86 Volume=4.2M Target=$28.11 Stop=$30.39
POSITION: AEO QF - May $30p (-43 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/aeo.html
Play Date: 03/12/2007
CCU (Clear Channel Communications--$35.23; +0.21; optionable): Broadcast radio
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ccu.html
EARNINGS: 2-23-07
STATUS: Put. Rebounded in the second half of the week after a higher volume drop on Monday. Could not hold a move through the 10 day EMA (35.32) Thursday and showed a doji below that near resistance Friday. Money flow is turning over once more as well. Looking to move in as it heads back down. To recap: Volume surged Monday as CCU turned down sharply from the 90 day MA (35.70), following money flow lower. Recovered to the 10 day EMA the rest of the week and is now set up to fall once more. CCU gapped up sharply in late October, but now it is breaking down, looking to fill that gap higher. Like playing gaps because they always tend to fill. A move to the target lands a 50%ish gain.
Volume: 12.29M Avg Volume: 5.891M
BUY POINT: $34.84 Volume=6M Target=$33.38 Stop=$35.31
POSITION: CCU PG - Apr. $35p (-64 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ccu.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
stock split
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