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us stock market, stock recommendation
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: HMSY; MM; OIH; ROCM; WNR
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 03/19/2007
CLB (Core Labs--$82.23; +2.12; optionable): Oil and gas service company
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/clb.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-14-07
STATUS: Ascending base. CLB has worked laterally the past two weeks, moving just over the 50 day EMA (80) as it sets up for the next break higher in its 15 week base. Top fundamentals to go along with its pattern. Volume has remained low the past two weeks as it consolidated. Just waiting for volume to rise as it makes its move. That will give us the buy point.
Volume: 163.1K Avg Volume: 305.275K
BUY POINT: $82.96 Volume=450K Target=$92.95 Stop=$79.78
POSITION: CLB FP - June $80c (61 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/clb.html
Play Date: 03/19/2007
CMC (Commercial Metals--$28.90; +1.04; optionable): Steel and iron
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cmc.html
EARNINGS: Announces earnings 3-20-07
STATUS: Ascending base. Strong volume Monday ahead of its earnings Tuesday (it has not set a release time). It bumped right up against the late February high as it moved up; that is the point it needs to clear on strong volume to send it toward a new all-time high.
Volume: 1.415M Avg Volume: 1.201M
BUY POINT: $29.18 Volume=1.8M Target=$34.95 Stop=$27.61
POSITION: CMC FE - June $25c (77 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cmc.html
Play Date: 03/19/2007
ESV (Ensco Intl.--$53.19; +1.97; optionable): Oil and gas service company
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/esv.html
EARNINGS: Announced 1-24-07
STATUS: Ascending base. ESV moved higher on strong volume Monday breaking past the February and early March highs in its 4 month base. This is part of a larger 11 month base setting up a solid breakout. Solid sector, solid move, and ready for more.
Volume: 4.39M Avg Volume: 3.641M
BUY POINT: $54.11 Volume=4.5M Target=$62.45 Stop=$51.22
POSITION: ESV FK - June $55c (49 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/esv.html
Play Date: 03/19/2007
GIGM (Gigamedia--$13.01; +0.64; optionable): Entertainment software portal, Taiwan
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gigm.html
EARNINGS: 3-13-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Volume was up Tuesday as GIGM broke higher off near support at the 18 day EMA (12.28). This follows a deeper test of the 50 day EMA (11.73) after a mid-February breakout from its 17 week cup with handle base. Made us some money on its last run, and looking to move in and have it make us some more as it continues this next break higher.
Volume: 1.653M Avg Volume: 1.103M
BUY POINT: $13.18 Volume=1.5M Target=$15.38 Stop=$12.26
POSITION: GBU BV - July $12.50c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/gigm.html
Downside:
Play Date: 03/19/2007
IFF (International Flavors & Fragrances--$46.08; -0.14; optionable): Perfumes, flavors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/iff.html
EARNINGS: Announced 1-30-07
STATUS: Put. IFF formed a broad top from November to now, trying to hold 46 the past three weeks. That is the point where it started the top back in November. No volume as it reached its high in January, and it started to distribute at that point. Volume has run higher the past week as it struggles below the 10 day EMA (46.52); looks like some churn below resistance, but we still need to see it break lower on continued solid trade. A move to the target lands a 55%ish gain.
Volume: 999.5K Avg Volume: 549.485K
BUY POINT: $45.75 Volume=550K Target=$43.72 Stop=$46.41
POSITION: IFF QI - May $45p (-30 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/iff.html
Play Date: 03/19/2007
MHP (McGraw-Hill--$63.43; +0.51; optionable): Publishing
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mhp.html
EARNINGS: Announced 1-25-07
STATUS: Put. MHP formed a triple top from December to February, sporting no volume on the highs, but more volume as it sold back. That spells distribution, i.e. money moving out of the stock. It broke down in late February, and rebounding to 64 where it moved laterally for a couple of weeks. It broke down again just over a week ago with the market, but then fought back to the 10 day EMA. Looks as if it has run out of print at this point. A move to the target lands a 40%ish gain.
Volume: 1.334M Avg Volume: 1.755M
BUY POINT: $63.21 Volume=1.8M Target=$60.85 Stop=$63.88
POSITION: MHP QM - May $65p (-52 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mhp.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 03/17/2007
GLDN (Golden Telecom--$53.70; +0.99; optionable): Telecom and internet services in Russia
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gldn.html
EARNINGS: 3-15-07
STATUS: Double bottom. Rallied further on lower but above average volume, though closed well off the high. Still a solid move and ready to move in as it continues higher. To recap: Strong volume Friday as GLDN surged off the 90 day MA (47.79), its second test of that level this month. Strong earnings sent it higher and completed the breakout from this short double bottom. A strong run with the market from August to February, it corrected hard to form this pattern; the double bottom is the 'scare them out' of the base world. Nice, sharp up and down action and starting back up. Looking to take positions on the move higher and then again after it forms something of a handle and makes the next breakout.
Volume: 390.986K Avg Volume: 256.61K
BUY POINT: New: $53.88 (orig. $53.12) Volume=385K Target=$63.75 Stop=$51.04
POSITION: QDV FK - June $55c (49 delta) or QDV FJ - June $50c (61 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/gldn.html
Play Date: 03/13/2007
IVN (Ivanhoe Mines--$11.35; +0.06; optionable): Copper and gold
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ivn.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-6-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Nice doji at the 10 day EMA (11.28) on low, below average volume as IVN sets up for a break higher to continue the breakout move. To recap: IVN surged to a new all-time high last week as it broke out from an 18 week base, rallying on strong volume. It is coming back to test the move this week, tapping at the 10 day EMA last week and holding that level at near support. Looking solid and just waiting for the rebound on volume.
Volume: 369.3K Avg Volume: 599.323K
BUY POINT: $11.65 Volume=1.2M Target=$14.35 Stop=$10.85
POSITION: IVN FB - June $10c (70 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ivn.html
Downside:
Play Date: 03/15/2007
AEO (American Eagle Outfitters--$30.00; +0.11; optionable): Apparel stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aeo.html
EARNINGS: 5-22-07
STATUS: Put. Another slow day below the 10 day EMA (30.12) on low, below average volume. Did not participate in the rally and looks ready to resume the move lower. To recap: To recap: AEO recently moved to the NYSE, but that is not helping it a whole lot. It has formed a 15 week head and shoulders top and broke lower to start March, falling to the 200 day SMA (28.23) on the low. It bounced and tried to recover support at the 50 and 90 day MA, but is failing, sliding lower along the 18 day EMA (30.40) last week. Looks ready to follow the weakening money flow lower. A move to the target lands a 40%ish gain.
Volume: 2.508M Avg Volume: 4.084M
BUY POINT: $29.86 Volume=4.2M Target=$28.11 Stop=$30.39
POSITION: AEO QF - May $30p (-43 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/aeo.html
Play Date: 03/17/2007
C (Citigroup--$50.06; +0.53; optionable): Banks, financial services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/c.html
EARNINGS: 4-16-07
STATUS: Head and shoulders. Modest move higher Monday as C 'rallied' but stopped at the 10 day EMA. Volume backed off to below average for the first time in a week; not many buyers to push it. Money flow remains weak. Looking to move back in as it turns back over. To recap: C collapsed to end February, dropping hard out of a 9 week topping pattern, It tried to hold the 200 day SMA (50.66) through the first two weeks of March, but on Tuesday that attempt to consolidate gave way. It reversed Wednesday after another plunge to 48 and tested the 10 day EMA (50.05) Thursday and Friday. Friday it rolled back down on the strongest volume of the week. That looks like a failed test of near support. Ready to move in as it continues lower. A move to the target lands a 42%ish gain. Looking at April options as they deliver the best bang for the buck and the stock is already turning lower.
Volume: 16.814M Avg Volume: 19.949M
BUY POINT: $49.39 Volume=22M Target=$48.12 Stop=$50.08
POSITION: C PJ - Apr. $50p (-51 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/c.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
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