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yahoo stock, us stock market
Begin Part 2 of 2
THE PLAYS:
Reading the Plays: Please note that when we reference the 10, 18, and 50 day moving averages (MVA), those are exponential moving averages (EMA). The 200 day moving average is always simple (SMA). We will note when we reference a particular MVA differently, e.g., a simple 50 day MVA. Please click on the Yahoo and chart links for company and charting information. A "prior high" refers to the high at the start of a base.
For conserving space on listings of stop losses, the symbol (7%) indicates that the stop is 7% below the buy point.
Good movers: PVSW shot to a new high after testing the breakout from the saucer with handle. Volume was strong on the move, which came 2 days after the company reported stronger profits. Let 'er rip! One of our put plays, IDPH dropped to a low of 59.20, just above 200 day MVA at 58.17, our target for the play. Volume was higher and the stock bounced; it still looks in trouble and could give another fall for opportunity to close out positions. SEBL was up well over 2 points on strong volume, closing at the 35 resistance but this was a good move.
Stocks/Indexes from the Wednesday report:
CBSA: Continued to hug the 50 day MVA in the handle, on decreasing volume.
PEGS: Holding above the 10 day MVA in the test of the breakout (handle).
SPCT: Made the pop on the earnings news, with volume skyscraper high. Showed a doji so is fighting the profit-takers. Be nice if it could just run, but can pull back to test the buy point here.
TER: Down another one and three-quarters. Looking for a move down to 23 on the put play.
EMC: Did not pop today as we though it would, but is holding the 50 day MVA on lower, below average volume. As long as it holds here, we can look forward to a move up, and like the lateral action on low volume.
Continued Plays:
CFLO: A subscriber's choice from 12-20 with a buy point of 2.84 in the pennant. Hit that pivot on the breakout but the move was weak, and on Monday the stop loss at 2.64 was made on a break of the 50 day MVA. Currently the stock is below that resistance on low volume.
MEDQ: The volume spike led the stock to a move higher Thursday, but volume was so low the move was deflated. It closed positively, however, so we will continue to watch for a move up in the handle.
RHAT: Now it looks like it can move, but then MSFT came out; held the 18 and 10 day MVAs today for a bounce but on low (and lower) volume. Will look for a volume-backed move up.
RI: Broke over the January high on strong but decreasing volume to a new all-time closing high.
SATH: Is it still a buy for stock? Is testing near the 10 day MVA in its test of the breakout from the cup with handle base. Showing a tight doji Thursday, volume was higher and almost at average. Looks good for a move up after a hold at the 3.40 range; buy point over 3.60 for aggressive entry points. SATH is a catalog (retail) stock, and we are being cautious with retail for now. A good-looking pattern however, and money flow and buying look super.
SEBL: Made out aggressive buy point of 34.25 but not before it dropped to a test of the 18 day MVA the previous 2 sessions. Yesterday showed a shooting star doji and gave us exactly what we thought - a rebound up to resistance at 35. Only one difference: Volume was stronger, not weaker, up to average. New buy point is 36.18 for a breakout from the cup with handle; target is 43. Stock and/or May $30 calls to buy (SGQ EF)
SGI: Holding the 18 day MVA today just as we wanted. Testing the breakout from its 8-month cup with handle.
WMT: Can't take our eyes off it. Again up and over the 18 day MVA on strong volume. What a fight and it is enough to make you dizzy. On a move up from here can get a move to the 58 range, but that is kind of close with the stock closing at 56.76. We are cautious with retailers for now or would be more aggressive.
SUBSCRIBER CHOICE:
ARBA (Ariba--$7.05; +0.21; optionable): Internet Software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/arba.html
STATUS: ARBA is another stock that is deep in a base, this one of 16 months with highs near $165. Since that is like outer space, we'll zoom in on more recent action. The stock is at least off the lows near 1.50 (September) and recently broke out of a cup with handle pattern that vaulted it over the 200 day MVA (now just under 5). It fell back to the 200 day MVA in a steeper-than-desired test of the breakout, then tried to form an ascending wedge, a sloppy pattern ARBA is trying to clear. The stock is holding above 7 (the 10 and 18 day MVAs) on decreasing volume (8.9 million; avg. 9.8 million), and if it holds has a good chance of breaking out over the recent high this month (7.82). Received upgrade from Goldman Sachs on Monday, which popped it up on strong volume but immediately sold back to the 18 day MVA. Showing strong money flow and buying! Target: 10
BUY POINT: Over 7.82 on volume in the range of 13 million. Stop: 7.30 (7%)
POSITION: Stock and/or May $7.50 calls to buy (IRU EU).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/arba.html
RBOT (Computer Motion--$4.90; +0.20; no options): Health Services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rbot.html
STATUS: RBOT is in a 3.5-year base (highs near 18) and at the end of December broke out in a strong move over the 200 day MVA (now at 4). It tested that move and gave and even stronger bounce off the 10 day MVA. Topping at 6.25, the stock is engaged in another test, though suffered some heavier selling on this most recent pullback. It has held the 10 day MVA again, however, and volume finally fell back sharply Wednesday, and lower Thursday to 22,300 (avg. 38,000). Showing a doji there, RBOT looks ready to hold, but may test the lower 18 day MVA before getting the energy up for another super move as on the last breakout run (18 day is at 4.56). If it does not drop back that far, look for a few more days of consolidation above the 10 day. The stock has strong money flow and buying. Target: 7 (initially).
BUY POINT: Aggressive: 5.15 on above average volume. Stop: 4.79 (7%)
POSITION: Stock.
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/rbot.html
Best Plays:
1) NETP: Ready for another bounce!
2) DJX: In good position for a fall once it tests resistance.
3) LLL: A stronger move today, and we're looking for a break of resistance.
New:
NETP (Net Perceptions--$2.12; +0.07; no options): Business Software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/netp.html
STATUS: This is a software stock that looks ready to make a bounce from its 10 day MVA (2.03) after pulling back from an 18 day MVA bounce run. NETP broke above its 200 day MVA back in early December on a breakout from an 18-week cup with handle that was entirely below the moving average. Despite that the stock gave an explosive move over the resistance and continues to march higher with the successive bounces. What makes it look especially good here is the move off the support on a strong surge in volume to 267,600 (avg. 81,318). Earnings are out in early February, and there was no other news on the buying. Looking for a blast up from here and move over the January high at 2.28. Huge money flow and high relative strength. Buying looks good, too. Target: 4
BUY POINT: Aggressive: 2.20 on continued strong volume. Stop: 2.05 (7%)
POSITION: Stock.
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/netp.html
Puts:
DJX I1/100 Dj Indu--$98.50; +1.38; optionable):
STATUS: The index rallied but closed beneath its 50 day MVA (98.98) with volume decreasing to 1.36 million (avg. 1.2 million). We are looking for the index to fall from that resistance. It will be pressured by IBM and MSFT, so there is a chance that put options will be held early as market makers try to price in the unopened stocks that are delayed on the open. May be able to buy them at the open, but if not we will wait for them to open and give a bit of a bounce. Target: 95
BUY POINT: After a gap lower, let it rally and when that rally stalls, then jump in.
POSITION: February $100 puts to buy (DJV NV).
QQQ (Nasdaq 100--$39.65; +0.87; optionable):
STATUS: The index closed just above its 50 day MVA (39.52) with volume falling back to 75.1 million (avg. 67 million). Showing a doji after some selling Wednesday, this was indicative of the oversold bounce that we were anticipating (although, unfortunately, EMC did not deliver for us today). We were looking for a possible bounce up to test the 50 day MVA (simple) at the 40 range (closed today at 40.03), resistance tapped on the intraday high of 39.97. MSFT, however, will most likely make that more difficult. If it makes it to the resistance, look for a fall back; positions can be taken at that point if the market is selling off; lower entry point beneath the 50 day MVA. If it tanks on the open, we will be patient and see if it can mount a rally back up toward the 50 day MVA and then stall. That will be the entry point. Target: 35
BUY POINT: From the 50 day simple: 39.90 on preferably rising volume. Below support: 39.40 on rising volume.
POSITION: February $48 or $47 puts to buy (QQQ NV or NU). Please check for listings for prices and deltas as they were unavailable at the time of this writing. We typically look for QQQ options that are around $8 in the money.
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/$ndx.html
PORTFOLIOS: Each report, we look at these to see which is in a buy position. We don't cover them all each time, just the ones that look ready to pick up a few shares.
THE LEADERS: ACS, NVDA, DGX, FRX, LLL, KRON, MIK, BMET, APPB, MYL, IGT
LLL (L-3 Communications--$91.79; +2.27; optionable): Telecom Equip
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lll.html
STATUS: LLL bounced up on Tuesday on news that the company was buying Raytheon, after a Monday tap at the 50 day MVA (87.51). After a breather doji yesterday on lower volume, the good price/volume action continued Thursday with the stock up on rising volume (525,800; avg. 653,000). LLL is in a 14-week cup base and if it can break resistance at the January high of 92.63 (which with the November high of 92.55 can give it a couple of points of resistance), will look good for a possible move up to the October highs near 98. It may not run up that far before forming a handle to the shallow-looking base, but on a move up to the 94 range we can look at taking partial positions ahead of a later potential breakout. Money flow at good levels, steady. Buying trying to pick up and is positive. Target: 98
BUY POINT: Break of resistance: 92.70 on continued rising volume (527,000 or higher). Stop: 86.21 (7%)
POSITION: Stock and/or April $85 calls to buy (LLL DQ).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/lll.html
MIK: Closed back over the 18 day MVA off its 50 day MVA bounce. Volume was higher on the move so we like the price/volume action shown. Looks ready for a move higher, but not looking for a rally tomorrow, and this is retail stock (not in position for strong upside for now, in our opinion).
KRON: Continued its bounce off the 18 day MVA though volume was lower. It has resistance at the January high of 59.75, but this has been a nice 2-day move for a 4-point move. Can pull back due to the lower volume here (and tomorrow is Friday, typically lower volume).
APPB: Not ready for a fall yet, holding the 50 day MVA on still below average volume, but it could not hold a move over the 18 day MVA intraday. Could be the fault of lower volume, however.
ACS: After Wednesday's reversal move, the stock amazingly held the 10 day MVA as lower volume allowed a bounce back up (almost 2 points). Still looking for a move back to the 18 day MVA at least, from where it could bounce back up again for a quick upside play to 109. Will also continue to watch for weakness or another reversal move which could offer downside opportunities.
UP & COMERS PORTFOLIOS: BBBY, SRCL, EBAY, KG.
BBBY: Made the quick move back over the 50 day MVA Thursday, with volume rising to boot. Still has resistance at the 18 day MVA (33), and the stock isn't moving a whole lot on the strong volume of the last three days.
KG: Two days below the 50 day MVA and fighting to get back over. Hit a low of 39.52 and bounced, but low volume prevented the move back over. If it cannot continue to bounce back over the 50 day MVA tomorrow (the stock is holding above some solid-looking support at 40), we will sell.
MEMBER PORTFOLIO: BRCM, AMAT, JNJ, MSFT, AOL, BUD. Dropped PXLW, below its 50 day MVA for a week.
MSFT: Earnings surpassed estimates but the problem was Q1 revenues projected lower than expected. That sent the stock down after hours though in regular trading it was up on rising volume (moving into the news). 50 day MVA is at 66.54, and if the stock heads lower, that is support that will be key.
AMAT: Still below the 50 day MVA, and not looking for a recovery tomorrow. It bounced up from the 40 low and may just make it back over tomorrow, but not crossing our fingers.
JNJ: Is at resistance after a nice little run off the 50 day MVA (and lower support at the 57 range). Volume dropped back today, and JNJ has tapped the resistance the last 2 days.
If the market moves down, it is likely to follow suit for a test of 59 or the lower 18 day MVA at 58.61.
BUD: Still in a nice pattern after it could not break out on Monday, with volume continuing to decrease as the stock holds its 18 day MVA. Breakout is over 46.81 on strong, above average volume. Bounced up from the 18 day on the low volume, but not looking for the move to sustain.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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yahoo stock
us stock market
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