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stock option, Breakout test
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: ACTG; CYTC; EXC; GIGM; MM; SSYS; SYK; VLO; WFR
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 03/20/2007
COGO (Comtech Group--$17.07; +0.54; optionable): Modular design for Chinese manufacturers
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cogo.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-8-07
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. COGO has formed a 7 week bottoming pattern as part of a larger cup base that is forming the past three months. Solid move this week as it breaks out from the bottoming pattern. Looking to move in as it continues and then again after it tests (forms a handle) and makes the next break higher. Excellent fundamentals growth rates to pair with the technical pattern.
Volume: 913.853K Avg Volume: 525.307K
BUY POINT: $17.24 Volume=800K Target=$20.65 Stop=$16.03
POSITION: UWK IW - Sept. $17.50c (49 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/cogo.html
Play Date: 03/20/2007
MFB (Maidenform, Inc.--$21.34; +0.30; no options): Ladies undergarments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mfb.html
EARNINGS: Announced 3-5-07
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Excellent break higher last week, just not a lot of trade, but an orderly pullback is setting up the next move and from the pattern that has formed, there should be some volume as it moves higher. A shapely 23 week base has formed, setting MFB up to bust out once more. Looks ready to make that move, cross my heart (though I think that is a different brand).
Volume: 277.2K Avg Volume: 221.275K
BUY POINT: $21.75 Volume=332K Target=$25.95 Stop=$20.52
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/mfb.html
Play Date: 03/20/2007
RS (Reliance Steel--$46.20; +2.25; optionable): Steel fabrication
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rs.html
EARNINGS: 4-18-07
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Strong, strong volume Tuesday as RS bolted off the 50 day EMA test where it spent the past month forming the handle. A solid 12 month base that is ready to breakout and take RS to a new all time high. Looks like a reliable move ahead.
Volume: 1.938M Avg Volume: 925.927K
BUY POINT: $46.68 Volume=1M Target=$53.68 Stop=$44.11
POSITION: RS FI - June $45c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/rs.html
Downside:
Play Date: 03/20/2007
CSE (Capitalsource--$24.10; +0.15; optionable): Credit services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cse.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-27-07
STATUS: Put. CSE made us some money on its last run lower, and now it has rebounded to the 10 day EMA (24.30), once more ready to turn lower. It double topped in December and February, and that started this decline. It has another good run or two lower before it needs to rebound higher. It may try to test the 10 day EMA once more before it rolls over; if so we will catch it as it does turn back down. A move to the target lands us a 40%ish gain.
Volume: 922.7K Avg Volume: 1.234M
BUY POINT: $24.04 Volume=1.2M Target=$22.35 Stop=$24.44
POSITION: CSE SE - July $25p (-52 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/cse.html
Play Date: 03/20/2007
DIA (Diamonds Trust (DJ30)--$122.82; +0.54; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dia.html
STATUS: Put. A low volume climb off of last Wednesdays reversal has left DIA at the 18 day EMA and close to turning back down for another run lower that will likely at least test 120. That is our first target; a move to that level lands a 41%ish gain. If it continues lower we will let the play run with it.
Volume: 7.564M Avg Volume: 9.049M
BUY POINT: $122.20 Volume=9.5M Target=$120.00 Stop=$122.85
POSITION: DAW QT - May $124p (-50 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/dia.html
Play Date: 03/20/2007
SPY (S&P Depository Receipts--$140.97; +0.77; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/spy.html
STATUS: Put. Similar to DIA, SPY is bouncing on low volume from last Wednesdays reversal session. It cleared the 18 day EMA, but the low volume indicates it is not going to get much higher. It may bounce on up to the 'hump' from the last bounce (141.42) or close to that point before it turns over. If it does we will follow it up and move in as it turns back down. We are expecting that to happen after the FOMC result. A move to the target lands a 41%ish gain.
Volume: 81.7M Avg Volume: 84.226M
BUY POINT: $140.57 Volume=100M Target=$138.00 Stop=$141.21
POSITION: SFB QL - May $142p (-48 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/spy.html
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stock option
Breakout test
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