|
|
trade stock, stock split
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: ISRG; LHCG; ROCM; VLO; WFR
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 03/24/2007
CTSH (Cognizant Technology--$92.93; -0.06; optionable): Business process, IT consulting. Forecast second week of April.
BACKGROUND: Last announces a 2:1 split on 4-12-04 at $47. Before that a 3:1 split on 3-5-03 at $69.80.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ctsh.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-5-07
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Nice gap higher in early February on earnings, but after a long run 2006 it needed a breather. It fell back to the 50 day EMA (88.56) in this 8 week base, using that level twice as support. It bounced off that level last week then ended the week moving laterally on lower volume, starting to form the handle to the base. After a couple more sessions the handle will be complete and set CTSH for the breakout and next run higher.
Volume: 684.629K Avg Volume: 1.53M
BUY POINT: $93.95 Volume=2.3M Target=$107.95 Stop=$90.84
POSITION: UPU GS - July $95c (51 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ctsh.html
Play Date: 03/24/2007
FCX (Freeport McMoran--$62.30; +0.39; optionable): Copper
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fcx.html
EARNINGS: 4-15-07
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Kind of a ragged and elongated 11 month base, but it has laid the groundwork for a break higher. Nice surge the past two weeks on strong volume as FCX rallied up to the November and December highs. It moved laterally all last week just below that resistance, gapping lower Friday but then rebounding to close positive on some strong trade as it announced an offering of common and convertible preferred stock. That is not going to make much difference to us given how the stock responded nicely to the announcement. Just going to be patient and let FCX continue the lateral handle and then show us the break higher over those prior highs. That is our entry point.
Volume: 46.929M Avg Volume: 9.033M
BUY POINT: $63.48 Volume=14M Target=$72.95 Stop=$60.57
POSITION: FCX HM - Aug. $65c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/fcx.html
Play Date: 03/24/2007
IOC (Interoil Corp.--$26.65; +1.60; optionable): Oil and gas refining
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ioc.html
STATUS: Cup. Nice 20 week consolidation is giving way to some upside. After a strong run to end 2006 it needed a breather, and this was it, a pullback roughly around the 50 day EMA (24.22). It tapped at 22 once, twice, and then three times two weeks back, and that sent it higher last week. Volume finally came in on Friday; well, it was solid Tuesday as well. Excellent money flow is leading higher and with this trade and in this sector we are ready to move in as IOC continues higher.
Volume: 767K Avg Volume: 435.528K
BUY POINT: $26.88 Volume=445K Target=$31.95 Stop=$25.00
POSITION: IOC IE - Sept. $25c (68 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ioc.html
Play Date: 03/24/2007
MS (Morgan Stanley--$81.10; -0.03; optionable): Investment brokerage
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/ms.html
EARNINGS: Announced 3-21-07
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. MS gapped lower in late February, held the 200 day SMA (73.09) with a couple of taps in March, the last on that Wednesday reversal a couple of weeks back. It then gapped higher Wednesday on earnings, and then got the Fed goose on the behind after that. It hit 82 Wednesday and again Thursday, but it started backing off to end the week, gapping lower Friday but recovering to flat on lower, below average volume. May take another session or two to complete the handle and set up the next move higher. The gap lower and gap back up is what is called an 'island reversal', and in this situation it is a bullish signal due to the gap down and back up. MS has a lot going for it both fundamentally, technically, and from a P/E standpoint as well. After it finishes this handle it is ready to continue the move higher.
Volume: 6.089M Avg Volume: 5.94M
BUY POINT: $82.08 Volume=8.9M Target=$94.95 Stop=$79.38
POSITION: MS GP - July $80c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ms.html
Play Date: 03/24/2007
MT (Arcelor Mittal--$52.65; +0.53; optionable): Steel and iron
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mt.html
EARNINGS: 5-16-07
STATUS: Test breakout. MT has been working laterally the past two weeks, forming something of a double bottom on the 18 day EMA (49.77) as it takes a pause from the January breakout of the 9 month cup with handle base. Excellent surge Wednesday from the bottom of the range, then taking a breather to close out the week just over the 10 day EMA (51.44). That sets MA up for a break higher this week. Strong fundamentals growth rate to go along with the pattern. Ready to move in as it makes its next move.
Volume: 2.367M Avg Volume: 2.128M
BUY POINT: $53.51 Volume=3.2M Target=$63.95 Stop=$50.95
POSITION: MT IX - Sept. $52.50c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/mt.html
Downside:
Play Date: 03/24/2007
JNJ (Johnson & Johnson--$60.51; -0.35; optionable): Medicine chest of products
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jnj.html
EARNINGS: 4-22-07
STATUS: Put. JNJ continues to struggle and continues to trend lower after failing to complete a cup base in mid-January. It has careened down the 10 and 18 day EMA (the 10 day at 61.05) as it finds new ways to look weaker. Last week it rebounded to the 10 day and then folded up the tent, collapsing lower Friday on huge volume. Issues regarding stints has induces major weakness. The heavy volume on the downside shows continued distribution. A move to the target nets a pretty solid 50%ish gain.
Volume: 17.678M Avg Volume: 10.502M
BUY POINT: $60.33 Volume=11M Target=$59.05 Stop=$60.71
POSITION: JNJ QL - May $60p (-40 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/jnj.html
Continuing plays ready to move:
ANAD: Nice pre-breakout action
ISE: Nice hammer doji at the 90 day MA
IVN: Volume is picking up as it holds the 10 day and tries to go higher
MA: Forming a sweet handle and will be ready this week.
MCHP: Nice handle is just about done
PCLN: Gapped higher, tested the 10 day EMA, and is now ready to continue higher.
PRFT: Sweet handle is forming
RS: Nice lateral test after the Tuesday surge higher.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
|
trade stock
stock split
|
