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trade stock, stock recommendation
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: BRCD; CXW; GIGM; ISRG; RIMM; VLO
Best Plays:
1) BEAV: Nice test of the breakout.
2) CXW: Breaking higher on strong volume.
3) MON: Volume is back above average as MON starts the breakout.
4) MT: Starting the break higher on rising trade.
5) PCU: Volume was up again as PCU shows a doji at the 10 day EMA
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 03/26/2007
BEAV (BE Aerospace--$32.94; +0.09; optionable): Private and commercial airplane cockpits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/beav.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-5-07
STATUS: Breakout test. BEAV surged higher two weeks back when it boosted guidance. After a strong 3-day surge it peaked out at 33.80 and started the current test, waiting for the 10 day EMA (32.32) to catch up. It did so Friday as volume surged on news that BEAV priced a public offering. Nice test, holding the gains and setting up for the next move higher as BEAV continues the breakout move and looks for a new high.
Volume: 1.575M Avg Volume: 1.056M
BUY POINT: $33.45 Volume=1.5M Target=$39.45 Stop=$31.68
POSITION: BQV GF - July $30c (75 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/beav.html
Play Date: 03/26/2007
CXW (Corrections Corp of America--$52.64; +1.34; optionable): Prison management and properties
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cxw.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-8-07
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Strong volume Monday as CXW jumped off the 10 day EMA (51.50), the support level for the handle to its short 5 week base formed using the 50 day EMA (50.44) on both lows. The base filled the gap higher from early February on those earnings, setting the stage for a continued run higher. Excellent action and looking to move in as CXW continues the break higher.
Volume: 517.2K Avg Volume: 381.388K
BUY POINT: $52.78 Volume=450K Target=$59.45 Stop=$51.28
POSITION: CXW IJ - Sept. $50c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cxw.html
Play Date: 03/26/2007
GS (Goldman Sachs--$211.73; -0.16; optionable): Investment brokerage
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gs.html
EARNINGS: Announced 3-13-07
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Working laterally over the 50 day EMA (209.16), tapping that level on the Monday low and rebounding to close flat. Short 5 week base, but after that surge Wednesday took it over the 90 and 50 day EMA it has performed as a consolidating stock bent on more upside performs. Volume has backed off after that Wednesday surge; want to see it back up big as GS continues through the buy point.
Volume: 6.525M Avg Volume: 7.657M
BUY POINT: $212.48 Volume=11M Target=$229.75 Stop=$208.88
POSITION: GPY GB - July $210c (60 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/gs.html
Play Date: 03/26/2007
MGM (MGM Mirage--$71.60; +0.33; optionable): Resorts and casinos
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mgm.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-14-07
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Big run from November to early February, and that needed a consolidation. MGM fell into the current 8 week base, using the 50 day EMA (67.41) as support. Nice bounce on volume last week, then the formation of the handle, still ongoing, is now setting up the breakout. Nice tight doji Monday on low volume is helping set the stage for the next breakout. MGM is the top rated stock in its sector with strong fundamentals and a great technical pattern.
Volume: 765.327K Avg Volume: 2.235M
BUY POINT: $72.57 Volume=3.4M Target=$83.45 Stop=$69.44
POSITION: MGM FN - June $70c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mgm.html
Play Date: 03/26/2007
MON (Monsanto--$55.61; +0.78; optionable): Agricultural chemicals, hybrids, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mon.html
EARNINGS: 4-4-07
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Strong, above average volume Monday, the first time 6 sessions, started MON on the breakout move from its short but really neat 5 week base. It held the 90 day MA (51.98) on the lows of both legs and bounced, the last one on very strong volume. That strong volume off of support levels shows big buyers. They were in again on Monday, and we are looking to move in as MON continues higher on the breakout.
Volume: 4.018M Avg Volume: 3.019M
BUY POINT: $55.78 Volume=4M Target=$62.95 Stop=$54.08
POSITION: MON GK - July $55c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mon.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 03/24/2007
IOC (Interoil Corp.--$26.32; -0.33; optionable): Oil and gas refining
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ioc.html
STATUS: Cup. Took a day off Monday on lower, below average volume, testing back toward the 90 day MA and then rebounding to cut its losses. Like the rest and when it starts back up that is the buy. To recap: Nice 20 week consolidation is giving way to some upside. After a strong run to end 2006 it needed a breather, and this was it, a pullback roughly around the 50 day EMA (24.22). It tapped at 22 once, twice, and then three times two weeks back, and that sent it higher last week. Volume finally came in on Friday; well, it was solid Tuesday as well. Excellent money flow is leading higher and with this trade and in this sector we are ready to move in as IOC continues higher.
Volume: 315.8K Avg Volume: 435.528K
BUY POINT: $26.88 Volume=445K Target=$31.95 Stop=$25.00
POSITION: IOC IE - Sept. $25c (68 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ioc.html
Play Date: 03/21/2007
ISE (International Securities Exchange--$47.89; -0.18; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ise.html
EARNINGS: 4-25-07
STATUS: Cup. Nice doji at the 90 day MA Monday, testing the 50 day EMA on the low and rebounding. Setting up nicely, just have to be patient and let it show us the move higher. To recap: A great mover for us to end 2006, ISE needed to consolidate and it is doing so with the current 17 week base. It is starting to turn back up from the bottom that formed using the 200 day SMA (45.02) as support. Money flow is surging higher ahead of price and when ISE takes off it is likely to cover some ground in a hurry.
Volume: 242.6K Avg Volume: 817.762K
BUY POINT: $49.44 Volume=1.2M Target=$55.45 Stop=$46.42
POSITION: ISE GI - July $45c (63 delta) or ISE GJ - July $50c (48 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ise.html
Play Date: 03/13/2007
IVN (Ivanhoe Mines--$11.70; +0.01; optionable): Copper and gold
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ivn.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-6-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Still working laterally just above the 10 day EMA (11.52) as IVN sets up nicely for the breakout move. Just waiting for the breakaway. To recap: IVN surged to a new all-time high in early March as it broke out from an 18 week base, rallying on strong volume. It is coming back to test the move this week, tapping at the 10 day EMA last week and holding that level at near support. Looking solid and just waiting for the rebound on volume.
Volume: 808.7K Avg Volume: 588.825K
BUY POINT: New: $11.88 (orig. $11.65) Volume=1.2M Target=$14.35 Stop=$10.85
POSITION: IVN FB - June $10c (70 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ivn.html
Play Date: 03/24/2007
MT (Arcelor Mittal--$53.69; +1.04; optionable): Steel and iron
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mt.html
EARNINGS: 5-16-07
STATUS: Test breakout. Volume was up and above average Monday as MT gapped higher, tested, then turned back up. Solid and a buy on a continued move higher. To recap: MT has been working laterally the past two weeks, forming something of a double bottom on the 18 day EMA (51.31) as it takes a pause from the January breakout of the 9 month cup with handle base. Excellent surge Wednesday from the bottom of the range, then taking a breather to close out the week just over the 10 day EMA (51.84). That sets MT up for a break higher this week. Strong fundamentals growth rate to go along with the pattern. Ready to move in as it makes its next move.
Volume: 2.86M Avg Volume: 2.128M
BUY POINT: $53.51 Volume=3.2M Target=$63.95 Stop=$50.95
POSITION: MT IX - Sept. $52.50c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mt.html
Play Date: 03/24/2007
PCU (Southern Copper--$71.15; +0.43; optionable): Copper
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pcu.html
EARNINGS: Late April
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Another doji at the 10 day EMA (69.97) on stronger, above average volume as it sets up to pound out a breakout from its solid base. Very nice pattern. To recap: Excellent breakout and run higher January and February as PCU broke from a rather elongated 8.5 month ascending base. It is now testing, forming a sweet little 5 week base, using the 50 day EMA (65.30) as support for the bottom of the two legs. Strong volume as it moved off that second bottom and rallied back up. Spent Thursday and Friday testing back, tapping the 10 day EMA (68.92) on the low and rebounding to cut its losses. Forming a nice handle that is setting up the breakout move. Might take a couple of sessions to finish the handle and set up the next break higher. Has hammered out a nice base that has set up the breakout move.
Volume: 3.226M Avg Volume: 2.569M
BUY POINT: $72.48 Volume=3.9M Target=$83.95 Stop=$69.55
POSITION: PCU IN - Sept. $70c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/pcu.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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