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us stock market, stock recommendation
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 03/28/2007
FALC (Falconstar Software--$10.53; -0.03; optionable): Network storage software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/falc.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-13-07
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Nice 6 week base has formed over the 18 day EMA (10.47), setting up the next break higher. This is consolidating the February blast higher out of a 12 month cup with handle base. Big surge on that move and a nice test during the market correction, using it to form a new base while holding its gains. Strong money flow. Looking for a break higher on a return to volume.
Volume: 141.832K Avg Volume: 459.725K
BUY POINT: $11.05 Volume=690K Target=$13.31 Stop=$10.35
POSITION: XMQ HB - Aug. $10c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/falc.html
Play Date: 03/28/2007
MO (Altria Group--$86.21; +1.13; optionable): Tobacco products
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mo.html
EARNINGS: 4-19-07
STATUS: Cup. MO is picking up some mo as it readies the spin off of the foods division and gets back to the basics of smoking, chewing, and causing cancer. Working up the right side of an 11 week base, showing some excellent volume Wednesday. Lots of support for this spin off and many are ready to buy.
Volume: 16.113M Avg Volume: 12.072M
BUY POINT: $86.95 Volume=18M Target=$99.95 Stop=$84.28
POSITION: MO IQ - Sept. $85c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/mo.html
Play Date: 03/28/2007
VTIV (Ventiv Health--$37.83; -0.21; optionable): Communications, commercialization, etc. for the pharma and life sciences industries.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vtiv.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-27-07
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. A short 6 week base has formed over the 50 day EMA (36.25), setting up the breakout to a new all-time high. Nice pattern that is consolidating the December breakout from a larger 10 month pattern, this is just the rest it needs to set up and head higher again. Wednesday it tested lower, tapping the 18 day EMA on the low and recovered to close flat. Nice shakeout setting the next breakout.
Volume: 461.527K Avg Volume: 305.203K
BUY POINT: $38.28 Volume=458K Target=$44.00 Stop=$36.95
POSITION: QBP GG - July $35c (72 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/vtiv.html
Downside: Play Date: 03/28/2007
ALL (Allstate--$59.86; -0.56; optionable): P&C insurance
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/all.html
EARNINGS: 4-18-07
STATUS: Put. Formed a big broad top November to January, and then broke lower with a gap. It has tried to hold the 200 day SMA (60.41), rebounding up to the 50 day EMA (61.16) last week. It failed and broke below the 200 day Wednesday on rising trade. Weak money flow is in the toilet. Looking for ALL to follow it lower. A move to the target lands a 46%ish gain. On a continued move lower we are going to go downside on the good hands people.
Volume: 2.699M Avg Volume: 3.045M
BUY POINT: $59.71 Volume=3M Target=$58.20 Stop=$60.45
POSITION: ALL QL - May $60p (-48 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/all.html
Play Date: 03/28/2007
DIA (Diamonds Trust (DJ30)--$123.00; -0.89; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dia.html
STATUS: Put. Volume jumped Wednesday as DIA fell back from the 50 day SMA test last week. Recovered off the low but still below the moving averages. The volume shows selling all week. Looking for a continued move lower if the market continues to weaken. A move to the target (shooting for the just over the prior lows) lands a 50%ish gain.
Volume: 13.87M Avg Volume: 9.289M
BUY POINT: $122.88 Volume=10M Target=$120.85 Stop=$123.65
POSITION: DAW PS - April $123p (-52 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/dia.html
Play Date: 03/28/2007
SBUX (Starbucks--$31.28; -0.44; optionable): Coffee shops, music labels, and who knows what is next
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sbux.html
EARNINGS: 5-3-07
STATUS: Put. After making us some great money on the move lower in January and February as it trended lower on the slowing earnings. It became extended to the downside on the run, and it started back up as the company promised increased revenues in the future. It made it up to the 50 day EMA (32.28) last week and stalled. That is typical action in a downtrend: a trend below the 10 and 18 day EMA for 4 to 5 turns and then rebounds to test the 50 day EMA. If it fails there, another run lower is ahead. Looking for a move below the 18 day EMA (31.23) on the kind of volume it showed Wednesday to enter the play. A move to the target lands us a 44%ish gain.
Volume: 15.542M Avg Volume: 10.25M
BUY POINT: $31.18 Volume=10M Target=$30.55 Stop=$31.72
POSITION: SQX QZ - May $32.50p (-59 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/sbux.html
SUBSCRIBER PORTFOLIO: These are stocks subscribers suggest by vote that we put in a portfolio to track and move into the stocks if they perform well. If you have any suggestions for additions or deletions, email us. We don't cover them all each report, just when something interesting is developing.
AAPL, AKAM, CELG, DRIV, GME, GOOG, ISE, MA, MRVL, NVDA, WEBX
AAPL: Fell back to the 10 day EMA. We took the gain off the table and will see how it shapes back up.
AKAM: Diving lower on rising volume after failing the test of the 50 day EMA.
GOOG: Working laterally at the 50 day EMA, resting after that solid move off the 200 day SMA. Nice cup with handle.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
stock recommendation
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