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trade stock, stock recommendation
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: EXC
Best Plays:
1) BEAV: Nice test of the breakout.
2) CXW: Breaking higher on strong volume.
3) MON: Volume is back above average as MON starts the breakout.
4) MT: Starting the break higher on rising trade.
5) PCU: Volume was up again as PCU shows a doji at the 10 day EMA
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 03/28/2007
DXPE (DXP Enterprises--$40.75; -1.55; no options): Maintenance, repair, and operating products to US industrial customers
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dxpe.html
EARNINGS: Announced 3-15-07
STATUS: Test breakout. Surged higher on the earnings, breaking out from a 11 month base. Big surge on that move followed by a week lateral move and a break higher Monday. Testing back the past two sessions, holding over the 10 day EMA (39.74) on the test. Strong momentum, and after this pullback it will be ready to continue up toward those highs in the base near 60. Our initial target is a bit less ambitious, but if it is moving we will let a part of it continue.
Volume: 312.151K Avg Volume: 133.807K
BUY POINT: $41.65 Volume=3.5M Target=$49.95 Stop=$39.57
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/dxpe.html
Play Date: 03/28/2007
HWCC (Houston Wire & Cable Co.--$26.68; +1.08; optionable): Specialty wire and cable products
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hwcc.html
EARNINGS: Announced 3-14-07
STATUS: Ascending base. Lots of positive price/volume action in this 6 week ranging pattern that is setting HWCC up for a new high. A new issue last summer, this is HWCC's third base. Excellent surge Wednesday as it announced it was increasing the size of a secondary offering. Lots of interest and backers. Looking to move in as it continues this break.
Volume: 2.265M Avg Volume: 339.898K
BUY POINT: $27.21 Volume=350K Target=$32.48 Stop=$25.31
POSITION: UKL FE - June $25c (69 delta) or UKL IE - Sept. $25c (64 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/hwcc.html
Play Date: 03/28/2007
IPSU (Imperial Sugar Company--$33.22; +1.99; no options): Refined sugar
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ipsu.html
EARNINGS: Late April
STATUS: Ascending triangle. IPSU is working in a 12 month triangle, making higher lows as it builds toward a breakout. Just made a higher low at the 50 day EMA (30.60) and bolted upside Wednesday on strong volume. Part of the food problems relating to ethanol and other energy initiatives. We are apparently willing to trade fuel inflation for food inflation, but will wind up with both as we burn 'switch grass' and other 'renewable' sources. Of course we will have to plant the entire country in these alternative fuel sources. Whatever the case, these food ingredients are jumping on the new mandated demand. What a business to be in when the government says we all have to buy into its planning for us. All that means is that IPSU has room to run.
Volume: 518.843K Avg Volume: 295.816K
BUY POINT: $33.57 Volume=325K Target=$39.95 Stop=$31.95
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ipsu.html
Play Date: 03/28/2007
THQI (THQ, Inc.--$34.05; +0.61; optionable): Multimedia software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/thqi.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-2-07
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Volume surged Wednesday as THQI jumped off the 18 day EMA, moving toward the breakout from its 16 week base that formed its shoulders on the 50 day EMA (32.54). Excellent pattern is setting up a break to a new all-time high. Very nice looking.
Volume: 1.784M Avg Volume: 1.415M
BUY POINT: $34.68 Volume=2.1M Target=$40.45 Stop=$32.95
POSITION: QHI IG - Sept. $35c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/thqi.html
Downside: Just getting ready.
Play Date: 03/28/2007
ALL (Allstate--$59.86; -0.56; optionable): P&C insurance
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/all.html
EARNINGS: 4-18-07
STATUS: Put. Formed a big broad top November to January, and then broke lower with a gap. It has tried to hold the 200 day SMA (60.41), rebounding up to the 50 day EMA (61.16) last week. It failed and broke below the 200 day Wednesday on rising trade. Weak money flow is in the toilet. Looking for ALL to follow it lower. A move to the target lands a 46%ish gain. On a continued move lower we are going to go downside on the good hands people.
Volume: 2.699M Avg Volume: 3.045M
BUY POINT: $59.71 Volume=3M Target=$58.20 Stop=$60.45
POSITION: ALL QL - May $60p (-48 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/all.html
Play Date: 03/28/2007
OEX (S&P 100--$647.87; -5.20; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/oex.html
STATUS: Put. Same pattern of that double bottom of the lows and rally up to the 90 day MA through the start of the week. It faded Tuesday and broke lower on rising trade Wednesday. Plenty of downside as it looks at the prior lows. Just looking to take a part of that move for starters, but will let it go lower if the selling really kicks in. A move to the target lands a 45%ish gain.
Volume: 1.525M Avg Volume: 1.65M
BUY POINT: $647.44 Volume=1.6M Target=$639.55 Stop=$649.75
POSITION: OEY PJ - Apr. $650p (-49 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/oex.html
Play Date: 03/28/2007
SBUX (Starbucks--$31.28; -0.44; optionable): Coffee shops, music labels, and who knows what is next
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sbux.html
EARNINGS: 5-3-07
STATUS: Put. After making us some great money on the move lower in January and February as it trended lower on the slowing earnings. It became extended to the downside on the run, and it started back up as the company promised increased revenues in the future. It made it up to the 50 day EMA (32.28) last week and stalled. That is typical action in a downtrend: a trend below the 10 and 18 day EMA for 4 to 5 turns and then rebounds to test the 50 day EMA. If it fails there, another run lower is ahead. Looking for a move below the 18 day EMA (31.23) on the kind of volume it showed Wednesday to enter the play. A move to the target lands us a 44%ish gain.
Volume: 15.542M Avg Volume: 10.25M
BUY POINT: $31.18 Volume=10M Target=$30.55 Stop=$31.72
POSITION: SQX QZ - May $32.50p (-59 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/sbux.html
CONTINUING PLAYS
Play Date: 03/27/2007
CTRP (Ctrip.com International--$65.23; -0.63; optionable): Chinese trip services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ctrp.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Another nice low volume test Wednesday as CTRP closed just below the 10 day EMA, still setting up the next break higher. Looks great but has to show the move. To recap: Low volume pullback to the 10 day EMA Tuesday as CTRP sets the handle for the breakout from its 9 week base. Nice pattern setting up for a breakout to a new all-time high. Positive 4 to 2 accumulation in the base (4 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume) shows plenty of buying to give CTRP the foundation for its breakout and run higher. Consistent leader with solid fundamentals growth as well.
Volume: 215.385K Avg Volume: 476.567K
BUY POINT: $67.75 Volume=700K Target=$77.95 Stop=$65.21
POSITION: QCT IN - Sept. $70c (48 delta) or QCT FM - June $65c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ctrp.html
Play Date: 03/27/2007
ITRI (Itron--$65.37; +0.20; optionable): Solid state meters, automated meter reading, etc. for energy and water providers
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/itri.html
EARNINGS: 4-23-07
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Another nice tight doji at the 10 day EMA (64.62) as volume jumped above average. Excellent action and ready to make the next move higher. Very nice. To recap: A nice 5 week base has formed, acting as the handle to an 11 month double bottom with handle. A double bottom with handle on double bottom with handle pattern. In any event, a very nice pullback the past four sessions has formed the handle to the small base, setting up the breakout for a run to a new all-time high. Excellent pattern.
Volume: 605.635K Avg Volume: 473.638K
BUY POINT: $66.11 Volume=709K Target=$75.95 Stop=$64.28
POSITION: IUP HM - Aug. $65c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/itri.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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