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us stock market, trend trading stock
Begin part 2 of 3
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NOTE: Part 1 will follow Part 2 this evening.
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CONTINUING PLAY TABLE:
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LEGEND
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: Asc Tri =Ascending triangle; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.)
Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; Dsc Tri=Descending triangle; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
PLAY STATUS: Buy not hit (stock has not hit buy point); Buy not issued (stock has hit buy point but did not enter due to weak volume, poor intraday action, poor market action); Current (ongoing play already entered); Entered today (entered the play that session); Exited (closed the position); Target hit (play hit initial target; will note if took all or partial gain or let run further); Trailing stop (exited using a trailing stop loss).
Upside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
BEAV 03/26 Test BO 32.21 +0.19 33.45 39.45 990K 1.5M 31.68
Buy Not Hit. A wider range doji above the 18 day MA as BEAV continues
to test the prior break higher. Still solid. Still
being patient to let it show us the move.
BRCD 03/01 Cup hdl 9.85 -0.32 9.55 11.77 25M 15M 9.96
Trailing Stop. Dumped lower on strong volume and we closed the position
as it showed the second high volume session in three.
Too volatile after the Monday gap higher.
CLB 03/19 Asc Bse 85.00 +1.60 84.98 94.95 138K 450K 82.86
Current. Gapped higher from the Wed selling. Volume was lower
as the move was more driven by jumping oil prices.
If we get some volume on a move over 86, that is an
add-to point.
COGO 03/20 Rev HS 17.68 +0.05 18.18 21.55 422K 800K 16.91
Buy Not Issued. Still working on a nice handle to a solid base.
CTRP 03/27 DB hdl 66.73 +1.50 67.75 77.95 226K 700K 65.21
Buy Not Hit. Decent start to a bounce toward the breakout though
volume was still much too low to provide a convincing
breakout. Will need to strength as it makes the move.
CXW 03/26 DB hdl 52.03 +0.88 52.52 59.45 292K 450K 51.28
Current. Good recovery off the 50 day SMA test on some rising
though still below avg volume. Good answer to the pullback
and in position to give us another strong break higher.
CYTC 03/03 Test BO 34.13 +0.66 31.05 34.95 1.6M 1.1M 32.95
Current. New closing high on this move as CYTC tested lower
Thursday, recovered, and then extended Thursday. Ready
for the next break higher.
DXPE 03/28 Test BO 39.40 -1.35 41.65 49.95 305K 3.5M 39.57
Buy Not Issued. Faded thru the 10 day EMA after a modest gap higher.
Don't like stocks that gap higher and reverse. Will
see how it completes this test but going to drop for now.
ESV 03/19 Asc Bse 55.35 +0.60 55.11 63.45 3.9M 4.5M 53.95
Current. Bounced off Wednesday's slump to the 10 day EMA. Volume
was above avg, somewhat offsetting that ugly downside
thump Wednesday.
EXC 03/12 Test BO 69.10 -0.05 66.85 74.88 2.8M 4M 67.32
Current. Gapped higher but closed flat as volume fell back below
avg. Still in the uptrend so letting it must move up
for us.
FLIR 03/05 Test 50 35.28 +0.75 34.65 39.35 528K 750K 33.98
Current. Solid move higher off the test from last week. Volume was lower but the Wednesday trade as it tested and bounced indicated buyers were interested. Nice move, but it is just the start and need to see more upside near term.
FORM 03/14 Cup hdl 44.48 -0.63 46.69 55.95 583K 1.2M 44.98
Exited. Decided to close it after it moved below the Wednesday
low. Will keep an eye on it and see if it can set back up.
GIGM 03/19 Test BO 13.72 -0.26 13.45 15.65 782K 1.5M 13.38
Current. Faded back to the 10 day EMA on very low trade, testing
teh strong move through Monday. Letting it test and
want to see it bounce from here at teh late February high.
GLDN 03/17 Dbl btm 54.65 +0.97 56.05 66.25 185K 385K 53.62
Current. Tapped the 18 day EMA again on the low with very low trade. Nice handle, and on the break over 57 a new breakout and buy point.
GLW 03/20 DB hdl 22.83 -0.09 22.92 27.85 13M 22M 22.38
Current. Holding in the handle above the 10 day EMA on lower
volume. good action setting up the next break higher.
Needs it; has not gone anywhere in two weeks.
GS 03/26 Cup hdl 207.20 +0.44 209.21 229.75 6.4M 11M 205.55
Buy Not Hit. Another day just over the 50 day EMA on very low trade.
Quiet after the Wed gap lower on rising trade. Just
watching to see if it comes back to life.
HMSY 03/06 Test 50 22.58 +0.03 20.11 23.88 106K 450K 21.89
Current. Quiet lateral move, holding the gains as it sets up
for the next break higher.
HWCC 03/28 Asc Bse 27.42 +0.74 27.65 32.88 1000 350K 25.74
Entered today. Gapped higher on continued strong volume. picked up some shares as it pulled back off the high. It finished a bit lower, but this was the move we wanted to start in on. Will look for more when it holds near 27 and starts back up (if it does come back).
IOC 03/24 Cup 26.37 0.00 27.05 32.31 126K 445K 25.16
Current. Did not participate in the oil move, instead holding
flat on very low trade. Still in good shape; looks
to be forming something of a handle here.
IPSU 03/28 DB hdl 32.83 -0.39 33.57 39.95 231K 325K 31.95
Buy Not Issued. Could not add to Thursdays sweet move. Gapped higher
but closed modestly lower as volume faded. Like this
even more; as it rebounds that is the buy point.
ISE 03/21 Cup 48.80 +0.96 49.44 55.45 592K 1.2M 46.42
Buy Not Hit. Continues laterally over the 90 day MA, picking up
the pace Thursday. Still looks as if it is about to pop.
ISRG 03/22 Cup 123.01 +0.64 121.67 135.00 427K 1M 120.78
Current. Gapped higher after the pair of dojis but gave back
most of the move as volume was low. Hard to complain
as it posted a gain on a weaker session.
ITRI 03/27 DB hdl 65.17 -0.20 66.11 75.95 453K 709K 64.28
Buy Not Hit. Tapped the 10 day EMA on the low and bounced back modestly.
Low volume. Still working on the nice pattern that
is setting up the breakout.
IVN 03/13 Test BO 11.26 -0.25 11.65 14.35 647K 1.2M 11.38
Buy Not Issued. Slid thru the 18 day EMA (11.33) on rising volume.
Will watch to see how it holds the line at support at 11.
KNOL 01/09 Asc Bse 15.17 +0.42 11.38 13.95 146K 165K 14.57
At last, the break past the month-long range. Volume
was up though it was no spring chicken.
MA 03/22 Cup 107.19 +0.51 110.78 121.00 786K 4.5M 106.74
Buy Not Hit. Excellent set up for the breakout as it continues the
tight range above the 50 day MA. Nice set up, and now
want it to charge higher.
MGM 03/26 Cup hdl 69.89 +0.59 72.57 83.45 812K 3.4M 69.44
Buy Not Hit. Thus far the breakout has been a mirage as MGM works
on the handle over the 18 day EMA on low trade. Still
a solid pattern.
MICC 03/24 Cup hdl 78.46 +1.06 78.21 89.95 334K 926K 75.55
Buy Not Issued. Gapped higher but no volume and it could not do much
with it. Held the gains and that was positive. Still
a nice pattern if it can get the backing from some
strong trade.
MM 03/13 DB hdl 46.17 +0.75 42.12 48.65 300K 545K 44.25
Current. Posted a gain but continues the more or less lateral
move for the week, holding the gains and looking for
another break higher once the 10 day EMA catches it.
MON 03/26 DB hdl 54.87 +0.59 55.78 62.95 3.2M 4M 54.08
Buy Not Hit. Still fertilizing for the spring spurt higher.
MS 03/24 DB hdl 78.43 +0.10 80.88 94.95 7.4M 8.9M 78.21
Buy Not Hit. Big doji at the 50 day EMA on rising trade. This shows
up right at the gap down and gap up points in the island
reversal. Looks as if this test is over.
NUAN 03/17 Dbl btm 15.28 -0.31 15.54 19.85 2.8M 5.5M 14.72
Current. Gapped higher on the early buzz then turned over to
close at the 10 day EMA. Lower trade so no big deal
here as it tests near support. Just looking for another
strong upside move to take on some more positions.
OIH 03/14 Rolling 147.95 +1.95 142.35 150.88 9.9M 16M 145.65
Current. Volume surged as OIH rallied to a new closing high
on this move. That did not get it ouf of the week long
lateral range, however, but it does look solid here.
PCLN 03/10 FlyPlat 52.59 +0.17 53.57 61.65 938K 1.7M 52.38
Current. Hanging on at the 18 day EMA, recovering off the lows
Thursday to post a modest gain. needs to show us some
strength soon. Need some more Shatner commercials.
PCU 03/24 DB hdl 71.56 +0.62 72.48 83.95 1.7M 3.9M 69.55
Buy Not Issued. Low volume again as PCU continues its lateral move
that forms the handle to its base. Sweet pattern thus far.
RIMM 02/24 Asc Bse 135.85 -0.06 145.31 159.95 4.3M 13M 142.22
Current. Tapped the 50 day EMA on the low and recovered flat, again on very low volume. Rallied off the lows but could not hold it and now trying to make a higher low at this level to set up the next move.
RIMM 02/03 PreAnn 135.85 -0.06 135.96 154.89 4.3M 10M 142.22
Current.
RIO 03/06 Test 50 37.02 +1.00 35.17 39.95 8.2M 10M 36.11
Current. Tapped the 18 day EMA on the low and recovered for
a gain. Low volume so we need to see more steel in
the move as it resumes. It still needs more trade because
the move that matched the late Feb high had no volume.
ROCM 03/17 Test BO 22.64 +0.58 19.54 23.45 588K 425K 21.28
Current. Volume ran right back up as ROCM turned back upside
from the Wed selling. Still a nice trend higher up
the 10 day EMA and letting it run.
SIGA 03/15 Test BO 4.79 -0.06 5.25 6.57 511K 1.6M 4.88
Current. Faded to tap the 18 day EMA on very low volume. It
is at the point it has to show a continued break higher.
SSYS 03/17 Test BO 42.39 -0.16 42.15 47.85 84K 205K 41.75
Current. Gapped higher but could not hold the move, fading back to the 10 day EMA on the close. Still a very nice test that is setting up another break higher.
THQI 03/28 Rev HS 34.08 +0.03 34.68 40.45 1.7M 2.1M 32.95
Buy Not Hit. Another strong volume session but unable to make the
breakout yet. Still a great pattern.
TIE 03/20 Cup hdl 35.93 +0.38 36.60 42.95 2.1M 3M 35.38
Current. A bit rocky but held the 18 day EMA on the low. Holding
where it has to in order to try and tie on another
breakout move.
TK 03/15 Asc Bse 54.11 +0.29 52.38 58.45 183K 600K 52.76
Current. Trying to regain the momentum after stumbling on Tuesday.
It is continuing the move up the 10 day EMA so going
to let it continue to work.
TZOO 03/21 Cup hdl 36.46 -0.83 38.68 46.45 266K 500K 36.32
Buy Not Issued. Thumped lower and could not rebound this time. It is
holding some support at 36. Will see how it recovers
from here. Dropping for now.
UCTT 03/03 DB hdl 17.90 +0.10 16.41 19.45 417K 725K 17.78
Current. Big doji at the 10 day EMA after a pullback indicates
that UCTT is getting set to make the next bounce up
the 10 day EMA. Chips had a rough session but UCTT
weathered it well.
VCLK 03/03 Test 50 26.50 -0.02 27.32 32.45 1.3M 2.9M 26.24
Current. Continues laterally after a Thursday gap higher could
not hold. Still a nice consolidation over the 50 day
MA. Just have to be patient and see if it can show
us the next break higher.
VLO 03/07 DB hdl 65.14 +1.07 61.15 68.89 12M 12M 63.22
Current. Turned back up Thursday after the Wednesday gap and
reversal. Money flow continues to surge higher and
VLO is following it.
VSEA 03/05 Test BO 52.56 -1.34 52.78 62.95 1.7M 2M 51.48
Current. Gapped higher but turned over as the chips sold hard.
Volume was up for the second session but VSEA was able
to hold the 10 day EMA on the close. That keeps it
in the trend, but have to watch it here.
WFR 03/06 Test 50 60.00 -0.94 54.48 61.95 5.3M 5.4M 61.25
Current. Faded to the 10 day EMA as chips struggled. Holding
near support at the 10 day EMA is not a bad 'struggle'
session.
WMS 03/10 Cup hdl 39.01 -0.38 39.79 45.75 400K 600K 38.98
Current. Made a decent show of coming back from the Tuesday dump lower. Has to show us some upside this week to indicate it is not going to languish here for weeks.
WNR 02/22 Cup hdl 39.30 +0.31 28.25 33.89 432K 450K 37.95
Current. Excellent consolidation as WNR works laterally in a tight range, waiting for the 10 day EMA to catch up. Did not participate in the oil move Thursday but it was way out in front & is resting, setting up the next move.
Downside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
ACAS 03/08 Put 44.27 +0.09 43.00 41.00 1.5M 1.6M 42.85
Current. Gapped higher, gave it back, recovered for a modest
gains. Still struggling below the 50 day EMA, but has
come back from the lows the past 2 sessions. Needs
to make the break below 44.
AEO 03/15 Put 29.94 -0.40 30.24 28.57 2.3M 4.2M 31.05
Buy Not Issued. Big gap higher but then an equally spectacular rollover
to finish negative. Volume was up but well below avg.
on the reversal. Without big volume we did not want
to step in as the 200 day MA (28.59) is rising.
ALL 03/28 Put 60.16 +0.30 59.71 58.20 1.8M 3M 60.45
Buy Not Hit. Rebounded to tap the 200 day MA on the high, closing
mid-range. Still primed to head lower as the bounce
was on much lower, below avg volume.
CSE 03/20 Put 24.89 +0.18 24.34 22.35 1.2M 1.2M 24.84
Buy Not Issued. Lower volume as CSE bounced higher to tap 25. Just
being patient to see if this bounce peters out and
rolls over on some rising trade.
JNJ 03/24 Put 60.34 +0.34 60.04 58.91 17M 11M 60.55
Current. Doji below the 10 day EMA. Still looking for the break
below 60 to pus some mustard on the play.
MDT 03/27 Put 48.97 +0.30 48.55 47.00 6.6M 6.2M 49.18
Buy Not Issued. After gapping lower Wed and recovering, it is making
a low volume rebound toward the 10 day EMA (49.28).
Indeed, it faded back from there to close on Thurs.
Still looking for the roll lower off of this test.
OEX 03/28 Put 650.93 +3.06 647.44 639.55 1.5M 1.6M 649.75
Buy Not Issued. Sold off early but recovered to test the 50 day EMA (651) on the close. Volume remained low. Key point of OEX in its test. It held where it had to, but that does not mean it is going to recover. Thus still watching for the downside move.
SBUX 03/28 Put 31.33 +0.05 31.18 30.55 9.9M 10M 31.72
Entered today. Started lower once more and hit 31 on the low. Late
rally brought it back up to close just over the 18
day EMA (31.24). After hours it was trading modestly lower.
TMO 03/01 HdShldr 45.92 -0.12 45.02 43.58 1.9M 3.5M 44.77
Current. Faded below the 90 day MA though volume was much lower
and below average so not much downside push. This is
the week it needs to show the break lower or we close it.
End part 2 of 3
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