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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: CMC; HWCC; CMTL
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 03/31/2007
AH (Armor Holdings--$67.33; -0.53; optionable): Security products and vehicle armor systems
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/ah.html
EARNINGS: Late April
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Excellent pattern has set up the past seven weeks, using the 50 day EMA (63.71) on the lows as support for the double bottoms, setting AH for a new breakout to an all-time high. This nice base is consolidating the late January (earnings) breakout from a larger 10 month double bottom with handle. Excellent base on base action that is setting up further upside for this market leader.
Volume: 534K Avg Volume: 592.639K
BUY POINT: $68.35 Volume=890K Target=$78.95 Stop=$66.21
POSITION: AH HN - Aug. $70c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ah.html
Play Date: 03/31/2007
HLTH (Emdeon Corp.--$15.13; +0.31; optionable): Healthcare information services (WebMD, etc.)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hlth.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-22-07
STATUS: Cup. Formed a small reverse head and shoulders the past four weeks at the bottom of its 5 week base. Stocks often use this pattern to set up a move off the bottom of a cup base. It tapped the 50 day EMA (14.30) in mid-March, using that as the low in the pattern. Volume started higher Thursday and Friday as HLTH broke through the neckline. Not huge trade but the best in three weeks. The big news was a new CEO. This stock came to life in late December and made us some great money on that run. Now it has based and is setting up for another move higher, following the rising money flow.
Volume: 2.911M Avg Volume: 4.087M
BUY POINT: $15.29 Volume=5M Target=$18.45 Stop=$14.65
POSITION: HUT GC - July $15c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/hlth.html
Play Date: 03/31/2007
MT (Arcelor Mittal--$52.89; -0.23; optionable): Steel & iron
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mt.html
EARNINGS: 5-16-07
STATUS: Ascending base. After gapping lower Wednesday and closing below the 18 day EMA, MT recovered nicely, gapping up Thursday on strong, above average volume. Buyers came right back into the stock when they saw an opportunity. Friday it closed basically flat on lower volume, holding the higher low and setting up for the breakout to a new high from this base that has acted as a stopover after a solid January and February run.
Volume: 2.118M Avg Volume: 2.22M
BUY POINT: $53.51 Volume=3.2M Target=$63.95 Stop=$50.95
POSITION: MT IX - Sept. $52.50c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/mt.html
Play Date: 03/31/2007
OII (Oceaneering Intl.--$42.12; -0.87; optionable): Deepwater drilling equipment, services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/oii.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-21-07
STATUS: Double bottom. After a big run in early 2006 that made us some great money, OII has formed a couple of bases back to back. It made a big 'V' from July to December but could not breakout to a new high. It then fell into the current 16 week double bottom pattern. Last week OII broke above the 'hump' in the double bottom (42.91), and though volume was up, it was still below average and it could not hold the move. It ended the week holding some support near 42, still set up for the break higher. Want to see some good volume on an upside breakout as that shows the buyers are back in after the 9 months of basing (plenty of base to set the foundation for a strong run once again).
Volume: 688.4K Avg Volume: 767.503K
BUY POINT: $43.22 Volume=1.2M Target=$49.95 Stop=$41.15
POSITION: OII GH - July $40c (70 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/oii.html
Play Date: 03/31/2007
RVSN (Radvision--$23.60; -0.05; optionable): Videoconferencing and video telephony
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rvsn.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-8-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Big breakout in February (earnings) from a large 12 month cup with handle. It moved laterally for 5 weeks and with a couple of big intraday reaches lower to test 20 it shook us out. It held the move, however, and gapped higher two Thursdays back on very strong trade, running to a 7 year high. It spent the latter part of last week testing back to the 10 day EMA (23.54) on lower volume. This test is the initial test of the break higher, setting up the continued run. We pick up positions as it breaks higher on stronger volume from this test. Excellent action and money flow is surging higher ahead of price.
Volume: 109.728K Avg Volume: 212.666K
BUY POINT: $24.35 Volume=300K Target=$28.45 Stop=$23.04
POSITION: RJU IE - Sept. $25c (50 delta) or RJU FX - June $22.50c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/rvsn.html
Continuing plays ready to move:
Play Date: 03/27/2007
CXW (Corrections Corp of America--$52.81; +0.78; optionable): Private prison management/facilities
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cxw.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-8-07
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Volume surged up above average again Friday as CXW looks ready to make the jailbreak from its short but solid pattern. Second high volume session of the week, both on strong trade. Ready to move in as CXW continues higher this week. To recap: Strong volume Tuesday as CXW jumped off the 10 day EMA, the support level for the handle to its short 5 week base formed using the 50 day EMA (50.44) on both lows. The base filled the gap higher from early February on those earnings, setting the stage for a continued run higher. Excellent action and looking to move in as CXW continues the break higher.
Volume: 569.5K Avg Volume: 386.136K
BUY POINT: New: On a further move higher (orig. $52.78) Volume=450K Target=$59.45 Stop=$51.28
POSITION: CXW IJ - Sept. $50c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/cxw.html
Play Date: 03/29/2007
UA (Under Armour--$51.30; +0.57; optionable): Sports apparel
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/ua.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-1-07
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Volume was up Friday, moving up above average as UA moved higher. Good to see some accumulation as it starts its move higher once more. To recap: Spent the week working on a nice handle to its 9 week base, the third base of UA's relatively short life (IPO'd in November 2005). Classic double bottom action with the second leg forming in early March, undercutting the low of the first leg. Held the 10 day EMA (49.51) on the handle low and is starting to bounce. Looks super.
Volume: 835.329K Avg Volume: 797.241K
BUY POINT: $51.48 Volume=1.2M Target=$59.75 Stop=$48.94
POSITION: UA GJ - July $50c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ua.html
Downside:
Play Date: 03/28/2007
ALL (Allstate--$60.06; -0.10; optionable): P&C insurance.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/all.html
EARNINGS: 4-18-07
STATUS: Put. Tried the 200 day SMA (60.48) again Friday, but could not hold the move and rolled over for a modest loss. An up and down session but the key is ALL remained below that key resistance point. Money flow remains down and heading lower. Still looks ready to head lower. To recap: Formed a big broad top November to January, and then broke lower with a gap. It has tried to hold the 200 day SMA, rebounding up to the 50 day EMA (61.16) last week. It failed and broke below the 200 day Wednesday on rising trade. Weak money flow is in the toilet. Looking for ALL to follow it lower. A move to the target lands a 46%ish gain. On a continued move lower we are going to go downside on the good hands people.
Volume: 1.998M Avg Volume: 3.058M
BUY POINT: $59.71 Volume=3M Target=$58.20 Stop=$60.45
POSITION: ALL QL - May $60p (-48 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/all.html
Play Date: 03/28/2007
OEX (S&P 100--$649.89; -1.04; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/oex.html
STATUS: Put. This one could still break either way given what the market decides to do this week. It showed a doji below the 50 day EMA (651.43) Friday as volume moved up toward average; showing some churn below resistance and on top of some distrbituion Wednesday that suggests downside. To recap: Same pattern of that double bottom off the lows and rally up to the 90 day MA. It faded Tuesday and broke lower on rising trade Wednesday. Plenty of downside as it looks at the prior lows. Just looking to take a part of that move for starters, but will let it go lower if the selling really kicks in. A move to the target lands a 45%ish gain.
Volume: 1.544M Avg Volume: 1.65M
BUY POINT: $647.44 Volume=1.6M Target=$639.55 Stop=$649.75
POSITION: OEY PJ - Apr. $650p (-49 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/oex.html
Others to watch this week:
CTRP
ISE
MFB
MON
MS
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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