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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: CXW; HWCC; KNOL
Best plays:
1) AH: Excellent set up for a new breakout and a new all-time high.
2) HLTH: Starting a new run after a consolidation.
3) RVSN: Nice test of the breakout.
4) ATVI: Just about ready to resume after a short test.
5) IPSU: Federal mandates are making this a sweet looking play.
6) PUC: Very quiet ahead of the breakout
7) ALL: Struggling below the 200 day SMA.
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 03/31/2007
AH (Armor Holdings--$67.33; -0.53; optionable): Security products and vehicle armor systems
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/ah.html
EARNINGS: Late April
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Excellent pattern has set up the past seven weeks, using the 50 day EMA (63.71) on the lows as support for the double bottoms, setting AH for a new breakout to an all-time high. This nice base is consolidating the late January (earnings) breakout from a larger 10 month double bottom with handle. Excellent base on base action that is setting up further upside for this market leader.
Volume: 534K Avg Volume: 592.639K
BUY POINT: $68.35 Volume=890K Target=$78.95 Stop=$66.21
POSITION: AH HN - Aug. $70c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ah.html
Play Date: 03/31/2007
HLTH (Emdeon Corp.--$15.13; +0.31; optionable): Healthcare information services (WebMD, etc.)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hlth.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-22-07
STATUS: Cup. Formed a small reverse head and shoulders the past four weeks at the bottom of its 5 week base. Stocks often use this pattern to set up a move off the bottom of a cup base. It tapped the 50 day EMA (14.30) in mid-March, using that as the low in the pattern. Volume started higher Thursday and Friday as HLTH broke through the neckline. Not huge trade but the best in three weeks. The big news was a new CEO. This stock came to life in late December and made us some great money on that run. Now it has based and is setting up for another move higher, following the rising money flow.
Volume: 2.911M Avg Volume: 4.087M
BUY POINT: $15.29 Volume=5M Target=$18.45 Stop=$14.65
POSITION: HUT GC - July $15c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/hlth.html
Play Date: 03/31/2007
MT (Arcelor Mittal--$52.89; -0.23; optionable): Steel & iron
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mt.html
EARNINGS: 5-16-07
STATUS: Ascending base. After gapping lower Wednesday and closing below the 18 day EMA, MT recovered nicely, gapping up Thursday on strong, above average volume. Buyers came right back into the stock when they saw an opportunity. Friday it closed basically flat on lower volume, holding the higher low and setting up for the breakout to a new high from this base that has acted as a stopover after a solid January and February run.
Volume: 2.118M Avg Volume: 2.22M
BUY POINT: $53.51 Volume=3.2M Target=$63.95 Stop=$50.95
POSITION: MT IX - Sept. $52.50c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mt.html
Play Date: 03/31/2007
RVSN (Radvision--$23.60; -0.05; optionable): Videoconferencing and video telephony
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rvsn.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-8-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Big breakout in February (earnings) from a large 12 month cup with handle. It moved laterally for 5 weeks and with a couple of big intraday reaches lower to test 20 it shook us out. It held the move, however, and gapped higher two Thursdays back on very strong trade, running to a 7 year high. It spent the latter part of last week testing back to the 10 day EMA (23.54) on lower volume. This test is the initial test of the break higher, setting up the continued run. We pick up positions as it breaks higher on stronger volume from this test. Excellent action and money flow is surging higher ahead of price.
Volume: 109.728K Avg Volume: 212.666K
BUY POINT: $24.35 Volume=300K Target=$28.45 Stop=$23.04
POSITION: RJU IE - Sept. $25c (50 delta) or RJU FX - June $22.50c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/rvsn.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Play Date: 03/29/2007
ATVI (Activision--$18.94; +0.11; optionable): Multimedia graphics, games
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/atvi.html
EARNINGS: 4-24-07
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle breakout. Could not extend the move Thursday and managed just a small lower volume gain Friday as ATVI rests a bit after that huge Wednesday surge higher in price and volume. May take a session or two more before it makes the next move in the breakout, but looks excellent. To recap: ATVI surged Wednesday on strong volume, clearing an 11 week base consolidating the second half 2006 run. Solid 4 to 2 accumulation in the pattern (4 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume) shows a good buying foundation to support the breakout and run higher. Excellent action and ready to move in as it moves back up.
Volume: 3.506M Avg Volume: 4.923M
BUY POINT: $19.05 Volume=5M Target=$21.95 Stop=$18.04
POSITION: AQV HW - Aug. $17.50c (70 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/atvi.html
Play Date: 03/27/2007
CTRP (Ctrip.com International--$66.98; +0.25; optionable): Chinese trip services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ctrp.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Volume remains very low as it forms the handle to its neat little base. Great set up to take a trip higher. To recap: Low volume pullback to the 10 day EMA Tuesday as CTRP sets the handle for the breakout from its 9 week base. Nice pattern setting up for a breakout to a new all-time high. Positive 4 to 2 accumulation in the base (4 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume) shows plenty of buying to give CTRP the foundation for its breakout and run higher. Consistent leader with solid fundamentals growth as well.
Volume: 190.108K Avg Volume: 479.226K
BUY POINT: $67.75 Volume=700K Target=$77.95 Stop=$65.21
POSITION: QCT IN - Sept. $70c (48 delta) or QCT FM - June $65c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ctrp.html
Play Date: 03/28/2007
IPSU (Imperial Sugar Company--$33.53; +0.70; no options): Refined sugar
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ipsu.html
EARNINGS: Late April
STATUS: Ascending triangle. Sweet pattern and good price/volume action. IPSU took Thursday off on lower volume after the strong Wednesday break higher, then started back up Friday though trade was still low. Just want to see some more volume and it is ready. To recap: IPSU is working in a 12 month triangle, making higher lows as it builds toward a breakout. Just made a higher low at the 50 day EMA (30.60) and bolted upside Wednesday on strong volume. Part of the food problems relating to ethanol and other energy initiatives. We are apparently willing to trade fuel inflation for food inflation, but will wind up with both as we burn 'switch grass' and other 'renewable' sources. Of course we will have to plant the entire country in these alternative fuel sources. Whatever the case, these food ingredients are jumping on the new mandated demand. What a business to be in when the government says we all have to buy into its planning for us. All that means is that IPSU has room to run.
Volume: 221.963K Avg Volume: 294.052K
BUY POINT: $33.57 Volume=325K Target=$39.95 Stop=$31.95
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ipsu.html
Play Date: 03/26/2007
MON (Monsanto--$54.96; +0.09; optionable): Agricultural chemicals, hybrids, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mon.html
EARNINGS: 4-4-07
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Gapped higher Friday, surpassing the recent highs and looked ready to breed a new high. It reversed with the trade sanctions, managing to recover but only to flat. Still an excellent set up for a new breakout and run. To recap: Strong, above average volume to start last week, the first time 6 sessions, started MON on the breakout move from its short but really neat 5 week base. It held the 90 day MA (52.32) on the lows of both legs and bounced, the last one on very strong volume. That strong volume off of support levels shows big buyers.
Volume: 2.844M Avg Volume: 3.066M
BUY POINT: $55.78 Volume=4M Target=$62.95 Stop=$54.08
POSITION: MON GK - July $55c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mon.html
Play Date: 03/24/2007
PCU (Southern Copper--$71.66; +0.10; optionable): Copper
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pcu.html
EARNINGS: Late April
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Nice tight doji on the 10 day EMA (70.83) Friday as the handle tightens over that near support, setting up the next breakout move. Excellent action and we are ready to jump all over this one as it starts back up. To recap: Excellent breakout and run higher January and February as PCU broke from a rather elongated 8.5 month ascending base. It is now testing, forming a sweet little 5 week base, using the 50 day EMA (66.42) as support for the bottom of the two legs. Strong volume as it moved off that second bottom and rallied back up. Spent Thursday and Friday testing back, tapping the 10 day EMA (68.92) on the low and rebounding to cut its losses. Forming a nice handle that is setting up the breakout move. Might take a couple of sessions to finish the handle and set up the next break higher. Has hammered out a nice base that has set up the breakout move.
Volume: 1.504M Avg Volume: 2.616M
BUY POINT: $72.48 Volume=3.9M Target=$83.95 Stop=$69.55
POSITION: PCU IN - Sept. $70c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/pcu.html
Play Date: 03/29/2007
UA (Under Armour--$51.30; +0.57; optionable): Sports apparel
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/ua.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-1-07
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Volume was up Friday, moving up above average as UA moved higher. Good to see some accumulation as it starts its move higher once more. To recap: Spent the week working on a nice handle to its 9 week base, the third base of UA's relatively short life (IPO'd in November 2005). Classic double bottom action with the second leg forming in early March, undercutting the low of the first leg. Held the 10 day EMA (49.51) on the handle low and is starting to bounce. Looks super.
Volume: 835.329K Avg Volume: 797.241K
BUY POINT: $51.48 Volume=1.2M Target=$59.75 Stop=$48.94
POSITION: UA GJ - July $50c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ua.html
Downside:
Play Date: 03/28/2007
ALL (Allstate--$60.06; -0.10; optionable): P&C insurance.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/all.html
EARNINGS: 4-18-07
STATUS: Put. Tried the 200 day SMA (60.48) again Friday, but could not hold the move and rolled over for a modest loss. An up and down session but the key is ALL remained below that key resistance point. Money flow remains down and heading lower. Still looks ready to head lower. To recap: Formed a big broad top November to January, and then broke lower with a gap. It has tried to hold the 200 day SMA, rebounding up to the 50 day EMA (61.16) last week. It failed and broke below the 200 day Wednesday on rising trade. Weak money flow is in the toilet. Looking for ALL to follow it lower. A move to the target lands a 46%ish gain. On a continued move lower we are going to go downside on the good hands people.
Volume: 1.998M Avg Volume: 3.058M
BUY POINT: $59.71 Volume=3M Target=$58.20 Stop=$60.45
POSITION: ALL QL - May $60p (-48 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/all.html
Play Date: 03/28/2007
OEX (S&P 100--$649.89; -1.04; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/oex.html
STATUS: Put. This one could still break either way given what the market decides to do this week. It showed a doji below the 50 day EMA (651.43) Friday as volume moved up toward average; showing some churn below resistance and on top of some distrbituion Wednesday that suggests downside. To recap: Same pattern of that double bottom off the lows and rally up to the 90 day MA. It faded Tuesday and broke lower on rising trade Wednesday. Plenty of downside as it looks at the prior lows. Just looking to take a part of that move for starters, but will let it go lower if the selling really kicks in. A move to the target lands a 45%ish gain.
Volume: 1.544M Avg Volume: 1.65M
BUY POINT: $647.44 Volume=1.6M Target=$639.55 Stop=$649.75
POSITION: OEY PJ - Apr. $650p (-49 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/oex.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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