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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: CXW; ESV; EXC; GIGM; GLDN; OIH; PCLN; PCU; VCLK
Best plays:
1) GROW: Ready to surge again.
2) ICE: When it gets going it will fly
3) SPTN: Running on volume.
4) SOV: Diving lower on volume.
5) AH: Just needs volume.
6) MON: Still set nicely.
7) RVSN: Volume is starting to rise with a doji at the 10 day EMA.
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 04/02/2007
GROW (U.S. Global Investment--$28.49; +2.73; no options): Mutual fund management services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/grow.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Excellent price/volume action as GROW sets up for the breakout from the handle to its 12 week base. Strong run from October through the end of the year and then this base. Nice set up for the breakout and run to a new all-time high. Cool thing is it does not have to make a new high for us to have a great gain.
Volume: 2.483M Avg Volume: 2.085M
BUY POINT: $28.68 Volume=3M Target=$34.75 Stop=$26.96
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/grow.html
Play Date: 04/02/2007
ICE (Intercontimental Exchange--$127.87; +5.66; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ice.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-7-07
STATUS: After a huge run in 2006 that made us some nice green ICE has spent the past 6 weeks pulling back to test, holding some support in 125. It bounced higher Monday on stronger, average trade, moving up through the 90 day MA (126.38). Like this action and ready to move in as it continues higher on strong trade.
Volume: 5.299M Avg Volume: 5.068M
BUY POINT: $128.62 Volume=6.2M Target=$147.95 Stop=$125.24
POSITION: ICE FV - June $130c (51 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ice.html
Play Date: 04/02/2007
SPTN (Spartan Stores--$27.35; +0.55; optionable): Distribution and retailing of groceries
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sptn.html
EARNINGS: Announced 1-31-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Broke to a new high last week as the announcement came it was joining the SP500. It is on and after a two day pullback it resumed the move higher Monday, hitting a new high once more. Nice double bottom had set up and this is driving it higher. Money flow is surging higher ahead of price and SPTN is following. Ready to move in as SPTN moves to a new high.
Volume: 540.879K Avg Volume: 220.629K
BUY POINT: $27.55 Volume=250K Target=$32.95 Stop=$25.68
POSITION: QGH GE - July $25c (69 delta, 73 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/sptn.html
Downside:
Play Date: 04/02/2007
DIOD (Diodes--$34.59; -0.26; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/diod.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-6-07
STATUS: Put. Formed a head and shoulders the past 9 weeks, breaking lower two weeks back. It rebounded but stalled at the 50 day SMA, turning lower on strong volume last week. Gapped higher this week and then rolled down on rising trade. Looking to move in as DIOD continues lower. A move to the target lands a 41%ish gain.
Volume: 422.783K Avg Volume: 508.031K
BUY POINT: $34.45 Volume=525K Target=$32.70 Stop=$35.35
POSITION: DUH QG - May $35p (-48 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/diod.html
Play Date: 04/02/2007
SOV (Sovereign Bancorp--$24.78; -0.66; optionable): Savings and Loans
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sov.html
EARNINGS: 4-18-07
STATUS: Put. Made a lower high in late March after a low volume peak in February. That lower high didn't stick. SOV dove below the 90 day MA (25.32) Monday on the MBT news on rising trade. SOV had a gap higher in early October, and that has not been filled. That is interesting. Looking to move in as SOV continues lower. A move to the target lands a 46%ish gain.
Volume: 4.914M Avg Volume: 2.971M
BUY POINT: $24.65 Volume=3M Target=$23.40 Stop=$25.04
POSITION: SOV QE - May $25p (-48 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/sov.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Play Date: 03/31/2007
AH (Armor Holdings--$68.28; +0.95; optionable): Security products and vehicle armor systems
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/ah.html
EARNINGS: Late April
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Breaking to a new high on lower, below average volume. Liked the move, but need some more trade. Just a bit more; good volume last week as it broke higher so not looking for perfection here. To recap: Excellent pattern has set up the past seven weeks, using the 50 day EMA (63.71) on the lows as support for the double bottoms, setting AH for a new breakout to an all-time high. This nice base is consolidating the late January (earnings) breakout from a larger 10 month double bottom with handle. Excellent base on base action that is setting up further upside for this market leader.
Volume: 389.3K Avg Volume: 592.639K
BUY POINT: $68.35 Volume=890K Target=$78.95 Stop=$66.21
POSITION: AH HN - Aug. $70c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ah.html
Play Date: 03/29/2007
ATVI (Activision--$18.81; -0.13; optionable): Multimedia graphics, games
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/atvi.html
EARNINGS: 4-24-07
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle breakout. Another test though volume rose. Still like it and just waiting for the break higher. To recap: ATVI surged Wednesday on strong volume, clearing an 11 week base consolidating the second half 2006 run. Solid 4 to 2 accumulation in the pattern (4 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume) shows a good buying foundation to support the breakout and run higher. Excellent action and ready to move in as it moves back up.
Volume: 4.558M Avg Volume: 4.934M
BUY POINT: $19.05 Volume=5M Target=$21.95 Stop=$18.04
POSITION: AQV HW - Aug. $17.50c (70 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/atvi.html
Play Date: 03/27/2007
CTRP (Ctrip.com International--$67.31; +0.32; optionable): Chinese trip services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ctrp.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Always love playing this stock because it can fly when it starts to move. No volume Monday as it gapped higher, however, finishing with a modest gain. Just waiting for the break higher with trade. To recap: Low volume pullback to the 10 day EMA Tuesday as CTRP sets the handle for the breakout from its 9 week base. Nice pattern setting up for a breakout to a new all-time high. Positive 4 to 2 accumulation in the base (4 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume) shows plenty of buying to give CTRP the foundation for its breakout and run higher. Consistent leader with solid fundamentals growth as well.
Volume: 123.228K Avg Volume: 479.754K
BUY POINT: $67.75 Volume=700K Target=$77.95 Stop=$65.21
POSITION: QCT IN - Sept. $70c (48 delta) or QCT FM - June $65c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ctrp.html
Play Date: 03/28/2007
IPSU (Imperial Sugar Company--$33.15; -0.38; no options): Refined sugar
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ipsu.html
EARNINGS: Late April
STATUS: Ascending triangle. Faded back modestly Monday but still a sweet set up for the break higher. To recap: IPSU is working in a 12 month triangle, making higher lows as it builds toward a breakout. Just made a higher low at the 50 day EMA (30.60) and bolted upside Wednesday on strong volume. Part of the food problems relating to ethanol and other energy initiatives. We are apparently willing to trade fuel inflation for food inflation, but will wind up with both as we burn 'switch grass' and other 'renewable' sources. Of course we will have to plant the entire country in these alternative fuel sources. Whatever the case, these food ingredients are jumping on the new mandated demand. What a business to be in when the government says we all have to buy into its planning for us. All that means is that IPSU has room to run.
Volume: 220.051K Avg Volume: 292.923K
BUY POINT: $33.57 Volume=325K Target=$39.95 Stop=$31.95
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ipsu.html
Play Date: 03/22/2007
MA (MasterCard--$106.96; +0.72; optionable): Financial services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/ma.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Nice tight doji Monday on rising trade suggests that MA is getting ready to try a move out of its 7 week base formed over the 50 day EMA.
Volume: 1.763M Avg Volume: 3.144M
BUY POINT: $110.78 Volume=4.5M Target=$121.00 Stop=$106.74
POSITION: MA GB - July $110c (56 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ma.html
Play Date: 03/26/2007
MON (Monsanto--$55.01; +0.05; optionable): Agricultural chemicals, hybrids, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mon.html
EARNINGS: 4-4-07
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Tight doji Monday on low volume as MON tests the 50 day SMA and bounces. Looks ready to sprout. To recap: Strong, above average volume to start last week, the first time 6 sessions, started MON on the breakout move from its short but really neat 5 week base. It held the 90 day MA (52.32) on the lows of both legs and bounced, the last one on very strong volume. That strong volume off of support levels shows big buyers.
Volume: 2.063M Avg Volume: 3.086M
BUY POINT: $55.78 Volume=4M Target=$62.95 Stop=$54.08
POSITION: MON GK - July $55c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mon.html
Play Date: 03/31/2007
RVSN (Radvision--$23.49; -0.11; optionable): Videoconferencing and video telephony
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rvsn.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-8-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Another doji at the 10 day EMA as volume moved slightly higher. Still excellent and ready for the next break higher. To recap: Big breakout in February (earnings) from a large 12 month cup with handle. It moved laterally for 5 weeks and with a couple of big intraday reaches lower to test 20 it shook us out. It held the move, however, and gapped higher two Thursdays back on very strong trade, running to a 7 year high. It spent the latter part of last week testing back to the 10 day EMA (23.54) on lower volume. This test is the initial test of the break higher, setting up the continued run. We pick up positions as it breaks higher on stronger volume from this test. Excellent action and money flow is surging higher ahead of price.
Volume: 205.95K Avg Volume: 212.666K
BUY POINT: $24.35 Volume=300K Target=$28.45 Stop=$23.04
POSITION: RJU IE - Sept. $25c (50 delta) or RJU FX - June $22.50c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/rvsn.html
Play Date: 03/29/2007
UA (Under Armour--$51.17; -0.13; optionable): Sports apparel
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/ua.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-1-07
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Took a pause Monday on lower volume after a nice move up to end last week. Nice pattern and ready to move. To recap: Spent the week working on a nice handle to its 9 week base, the third base of UA's relatively short life (IPO'd in November 2005). Classic double bottom action with the second leg forming in early March, undercutting the low of the first leg. Held the 10 day EMA (49.51) on the handle low and is starting to bounce. Looks super.
Volume: 440.921K Avg Volume: 804.805K
BUY POINT: $51.48 Volume=1.2M Target=$59.75 Stop=$48.94
POSITION: UA GJ - July $50c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ua.html
Downside:
Play Date: 03/28/2007
OEX (S&P 100--$650.65; +0.76; optionable):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/oex.html
STATUS: Put. Still below the 50 day EMA. Expecting OEX to show its stripes over the next session or two. To recap: Same pattern of that double bottom off the lows and rally up to the 90 day MA. It faded Tuesday and broke lower on rising trade Wednesday. Plenty of downside as it looks at the prior lows. Just looking to take a part of that move for starters, but will let it go lower if the selling really kicks in. A move to the target lands a 45%ish gain.
Volume: 1.503M Avg Volume: 1.65M
BUY POINT: $647.44 Volume=1.6M Target=$639.55 Stop=$649.75
POSITION: OEY PJ - Apr. $650p (-49 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/oex.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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