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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Good movers: BA; BWLD; CMTL; DLTR; EXC; FLIR; GLDN; GROW; PCU; POT; RIMM; RIO; SYK; UA; URBN; VSEA
New Plays:
Upside:
New Pre-Split Play:
Play Date: 04/03/2007
CMI (Cummins--$146.57; +1.30; optionable): Engines. Splits 2:1 on 4-10-07
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cmi.html
EARNINGS: Late April
STATUS: Test breakout. CMI broke sharply higher in March, clearing a 4 week double bottom the third week of that month as it continued a strong move that took it 152 on the high. It pulled back to test that move to end the month and then started higher this week, moving off the 18 day EMA (143.54). Volume is not tracking with it, but CMI can run without a lot of trade as the last move showed. Want to see a bit more trade, however, as it moves higher to show it has some staying power.
Volume: 440.7K Avg Volume: 1.023M
BUY POINT: $147.35 Volume=1.1M Target=$157.00 Stop=$143.31
POSITION: CMI FI - June $145c (59 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cmi.html
New Leader Plays:
Play Date: 04/03/2007
PAAS (Pan American Silver--$29.91; +0.10; optionable): Silver
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/paas.html
EARNINGS: 5-1-07
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Short but nice 5 week base has formed using the 90 day MA (26.88) on the two legs as support. Volume started higher Monday and Tuesday as PAAS pinched off in its handle over the 10 day EMA. Tried the move but backed off to the close. Looks ready to make the breakout, and that is when we move in.
Volume: 1.069M Avg Volume: 1.301M
BUY POINT: $30.45 Volume=2M Target=$36.55 Stop=$28.98
POSITION: USP GF - July $30c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/paas.html
New buy point on current leader play:
Play Date: 04/03/2007
WFR (Memc Electronic--$59.72; -1.19; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wfr.html
EARNINGS: Late April
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. Volume surged Tuesday as WFR tested down toward the 18 day EMA (58.82) on the low and rebounded. Still a loss on the session, but a nice recovery. It fell because a couple of competitors announced plans to increase manufacturing capacity. This is WFR's second test of the 18 day EMA following an early March test of the 50 day EMA. It broke out sharply from a 9 month cup with handle in late January, rallied 10 points, and then made an abrupt test of the 50 day EMA in the market selling. It recovered and is on its way again. Looking for a continued bounce on more solid volume to move into this strong leader again.
Volume: 8.136M Avg Volume: 5.139M
BUY POINT: $60.38 Volume=6M Target=$67.95 Stop=$57.65
POSITION: WFR GL - July $60c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/wfr.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We consider many stocks for pre-announcement plays every week. We get information regarding upcoming announcements and other data that leads us to conclude a split announcement is coming. Even then, however, we have to be discriminating. We have to see a strong technical pattern as well, and thus we reject many potential candidates based on a weak technical position. Some we consider have announced, but have not fared well given their technical patterns were weak to begin with.
The key today is to find stocks in strong patterns or that are ready to rebound off support. A split announcement will amplify the move higher in these cases as we enjoy moves from strong leaders in position to run higher. We won't chase a stock in a poor technical position even if we know it is going to split; it simply won't do us any good, i.e. it won't make us any money to the upside. We could list all stocks we think are going to split, but again, that won't make us any money unless we are in an office pool as to what stocks will or won't announce a stock split.
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern and of course the strong earnings growth that put it in the pattern in the first place.
AAPL: Forecast early April.
BA: Tentatively set for late April
CAH: Tentatively forecast for 4-26-07
CMTL: Forecast in early June
CNMD: Forecast early May
CTRP: Forecast early May.
DLTR: Forecast late May
EXC: Researching date
GIL: Forecast early May
ISRG: Tentatively set 4-19-07
JCI: Researching the date. Announced earnings late January.
MA: Tentatively set for early May.
MCHP: Tentatively set for 4-26-07
MM: No split in late March. Researching the next date as we enjoy the good move.
MRO: Forecast early May.
NOV: Researching date. Announced earnings 2-6-07
POT: Tentatively set for third week in April
RL: Researching date. Announced earnings 2-7-07.
RIMM: Tentatively set 4-4-07
SSYS: Forecast early May
THQI: Researching date
VMC: Forecast late April
VSEA: Tentatively set for early May.
NEW PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 04/03/2007
NYX (NYSE Group--$101.00; +5.96; optionable)
BACKGROUND: No splits in NYX' history
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nyx.html
EARNINGS: 4-26-07
STATUS: Cup w/handle breakout. Surging volume as NYX broke out from the handle to its 12 week base as Euronext and NYSE close their deal on Wednesday. Whatever the reason, the move is strong and we are ready to move in as it continues its move.
Volume: 12.839M Avg Volume: 6.571M
BUY POINT: $101.39 Volume=9.5M Target=$113.95 Stop=$94.95
POSITION: NYX FT - June $100c (57 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/nyx.html
CONTINUING PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 03/27/2007
CTRP (Ctrip.com International--$67.71; +0.40; optionable): Chinese trip services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ctrp.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Volume kicked up a bit but still below average as CTRP pushed toward the breakout. Still solid, just needs more trade as it makes the move. To recap: Low volume pullback to the 10 day EMA Tuesday as CTRP sets the handle for the breakout from its 9 week base. Nice pattern setting up for a breakout to a new all-time high. Positive 4 to 2 accumulation in the base (4 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume) shows plenty of buying to give CTRP the foundation for its breakout and run higher. Consistent leader with solid fundamentals growth as well.
Volume: 256.065K Avg Volume: 470.54K
BUY POINT: $67.75 Volume=700K Target=$77.95 Stop=$65.21
POSITION: QCT IN - Sept. $70c (48 delta) or QCT FM - June $65c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ctrp.html
Play Date: 03/24/2007
MS (Morgan Stanley--$80.18; +1.49; optionable): Investment brokerage
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/ms.html
EARNINGS: Announced 3-21-07
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Bouncing up off the test from the past two weeks that saw MS hit and hold the 50 day EMA (78.50). Tuesday MS gapped higher and held its gains on rising though still below average volume. Looking for more trade as it continues the move. Nice test of the island reversal the past two months.
Volume: 6.307M Avg Volume: 6.272M
BUY POINT: $80.88 Volume=8.9M Target=$94.95 Stop=$78.21
POSITION: MS GP - July $80c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ms.html
Play Date: 03/28/2007
THQI (THQ, Inc.--$34.18; +0.42; optionable): Multimedia software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/thqi.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-2-07
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Still looks ripe, edging along the 10 day EMA (33.80) as it presses up against the breakout point. To recap: Volume surged last week as THQI jumped off the 18 day EMA, moving toward the breakout from its 16 week base that formed its shoulders on the 50 day EMA (32.54). Excellent pattern is setting up a break to a new all-time high. Very nice looking.
Volume: 1.01M Avg Volume: 1.415M
BUY POINT: $34.68 Volume=2.1M Target=$40.45 Stop=$32.95
POSITION: QHI IG - Sept. $35c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/thqi.html
Play Date: 03/10/2007
VMC (Vulcan Materials--$118.82; +2.86; optionable): Building materials. Tentatively forecast for late April
BACKGROUND: Last split 3:1 in March 1999 at $140.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vmc.html
EARNINGS: Late April
STATUS: Ascending base. VMC's consolidation of the strong January through February breakout run has morphed into a 5 week base, working along the 18 day EMA (117), refusing to give back any of the gains. Love a stingy stocks. Tuesday volume rallied as VMC jumped off the bottom of the last higher low. Trade could be better, but looks solid for the break higher.
Volume: 834.6K Avg Volume: 1.038M
BUY POINT: $120.21 Volume=1.4M Target=$137.38 Stop=$116.28
POSITION: VMC ED - May $120c (60 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/vmc.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 04/02/2007
ANST (Ansoft--$32.28; +0.65; optionable): Electronic design automation
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/anst.html
EARNINGS: 2-13-07
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Rallied higher on Tuesday, hitting the buy point but without any volume. Still an excellent pattern and just loking for some trade to pick up as it makes its move. To recap: Excellent handle forming the past week, coming back to the 18 day EMA (31.45) and holding on low volume as it completes its 6 week base. Nice technical pattern holding the 50 day EMA (30.36) on the two legs. Set to break to a new all-time high. Excellent fundamentals to go with its pattern.
Volume: 104.363K Avg Volume: 174.13K
BUY POINT: $32.48 Volume=270K Target=$37.48 Stop=$30.87
POSITION: UZD GF - July $30c (66 delta, 61 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/anst.html
Play Date: 03/31/2007
EV (Eaton Vance--$36.13; +0.37; optionable): Asset Management
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/ev.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-28-07
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Volume jumped well above average Tuesday as EV started on the breakout move. Closed right at the buy point and if it can continued higher it is a buy. Solid trade Tuesday continues the excellent price/volume action we have seen of late. To recap: After a strong run from August that saw EV run higher up the 10 and 18 day EMA (now at 35.29, 35.10), EV is staking a breather and formed the current 6 week base. After a strong run higher up the 10 and 18 day EMA a strong stock will test back to the 50 or 90 day MA and set up for a new run. This 6 week base is doing just that. Note how EV remained very strong as many of the financials fell into deep bases; a sign of strength. Volume surged to end last week as EV tested near support and bounced. Looking for the breakout this week as it rides that volume higher.
Volume: 813.7K Avg Volume: 529.744K
BUY POINT: $36.12 Volume=775K Target=$41.95 Stop=$34.95
POSITION: EV HG - Aug. $35c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ev.html
Play Date: 03/26/2007
MON (Monsanto--$56.00; +1.12; optionable): Agricultural chemicals, hybrids, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mon.html
EARNINGS: 4-4-07
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Volume jumped to average as MON tested the 18 day EMA on the low and rebounded to close at the session high. Super shakeout and recovery and looking to move in as it continues higher on this solid move. To recap: Strong, above average volume to start last week, the first time 6 sessions, started MON on the breakout move from its short but really neat 5 week base. It held the 90 day MA (52.32) on the lows of both legs and bounced, the last one on very strong volume. That strong volume off of support levels shows big buyers.
Volume: 3.186M Avg Volume: 3.072M
BUY POINT: On a continued move over 56 (orig. $55.78) Volume=4M Target=$62.95 Stop=$54.08
POSITION: MON GK - July $55c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mon.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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