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trade stock, stock recommendation
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: COGO; IOC; ISRG; IVN; PAAS; RIMM; RIO; THQI; VDSI; VLO; VSEA; WFR
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 04/04/2007
AGU (Agrium--$38.88; +0.66; optionable): Agricultural chemicals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/agu.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-1-07
STATUS: Ascending base. Nice 6 week pattern has formed making higher lows up the 50 day EMA (37), setting up AGU's next break higher. Broke out in October and rallied hard to 42 in late February, the peak on that run. It needed a consolidation and this base is doing an excellent job. Another part in the agriculture surge the feds have orchestrated with the ethanol requirements.
Volume: 1.224M Avg Volume: 1.241M
BUY POINT: $39.65 Volume=1.9M Target=$46.95 Stop=$38.08
POSITION: AGU GH - July $40c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/agu.html
Play Date: 04/04/2007
EOG (EOG Resources--$74.15; +1.08; optionable): Oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/eog.html
EARNINGS: 5-1-07
STATUS: Cup. Volume jumped back above average Wednesday as EOG, after a week long consolidation, cleared the November and July 2006 highs. Part of a larger 15 month cup base, building up the right side of the base. Plenty of room overhead up toward 85 before it hits the high in the base. Looking to move in as it continues this break higher.
Volume: 3.136M Avg Volume: 2.921M
BUY POINT: $74.48 Volume=3.4M Target=$84.95 Stop=$72.32
POSITION: EOG GO - July $75c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/eog.html
Play Date: 04/04/2007
NIHD (NII Hldgs--$77.80; -0.52; optionable): Telecom wireless communications
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nihd.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-27-07
STATUS: Test breakout. NIHD jumped out of its 8 week base to start the month, rising on strong volume. This small base consolidated the January breakout from a larger 9 month pattern. Strong volume on the breakout, pausing Wednesday on lower, below average volume. May come back to test further, back toward the 10 day EMA (75.60) before taking off again. Quite strong, however, so want to be ready to move in if it continues higher from here.
Volume: 1.24M Avg Volume: 1.815M
BUY POINT: $78.48 Volume=2M Target=$89.95 Stop=$75.45
POSITION: QHQ IP - Sept. $80c (53 delta, 83 OI) or QHQ FO - June $75c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/nihd.html
Play Date: 04/04/2007
SPWR (SunPower Corp.--$49.08; +1.95; optionable): Solar electric power products
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/spwr.html
EARNINGS: 4-26-07
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle breakout. Surging out of its 7 week base that used the 90 day MA (41.60) as support for the legs. Huge volume as it made the break, buoyed by a new power plant contract and court rulings favoring greenhouse gases as pollutants. Strong move and ready to take some positions as it continues higher and then again as it tests the move.
Volume: 2.315M Avg Volume: 991.419K
BUY POINT: $49.24 Volume=1M Target=$56.65 Stop=$47.22
POSITION: QSU IJ - Sept. $50c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/spwr.html
Downside:
Play Date: 04/04/2007
ASCA (Ameristar Casinos--$30.60; -1.87; optionable): Resorts and casinos
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/asca.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-1-07
STATUS: Put. Made a lower volume second peak in late March, and when that happens you have to be careful for rollovers. ASCA sold back to the 50 day EMA, gapped below it, tried to recover . . . and then failed hard Wednesday on surging volume. It was already weak and when it announced it was acquiring Resorts East Chicago that broke the back. There is a gap higher in November, a gap up from 26. It may try to fill that. Our initial target is much more conservative, but a move to that level lands a 42%ish gain.
Volume: 1.781M Avg Volume: 317.425K
BUY POINT: $30.38 Volume=325K Target=$28.65 Stop=$30.88
POSITION: UWT QF - May $30p (-40 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/asca.html
Play Date: 04/04/2007
MAN (Manpower--$73.00; -2.07; optionable): Staffing, outsourcing
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/man.html
EARNINGS: 4-20-07
STATUS: Head and shoulders. Volume surged Wednesday as MAN broke lower from an attempt to move back up through the 50 day EMA (74.41). The ADP jobs number and fears about the Friday number pushed prices lower. Looking to move in as MAN continues the break lower on continued solid volume. A move to the target lands a 44%ish gain.
Volume: 1.374M Avg Volume: 708.005K
BUY POINT: $72.85 Volume=750K Target=$70.12 Stop=$73.75
POSITION: MAN QN - May $70p (-32 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/man.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Play Date: 03/31/2007
DO (Diamond Offshore--$82.04; +0.34; optionable): Offshore drilling services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/do.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-8-07
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. DO continues its low volume lateral move over the 10 day EMA (81.07), bumping up against 82.50 on the highs as it measures that resistance, looking for a breakout move. Want to see volume return as it cracks through the buy point.
Volume: 1.262M Avg Volume: 3.288M
BUY POINT: New: $82.65 (orig. $82.37) Volume=4.5M Target=$94.45 Stop=$79.25
POSITION: DO IQ - Sept. $85c (52 delta) or DO FP - June $80c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/do.html
Play Date: 03/31/2007
HLTH (Webmd Corp.--$15.24; +0.10; optionable): Healthcare information services.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hlth.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-22-07
STATUS: Cup with handle. After jumping off the bottom of its 6 week base in late March, HLTH is working laterally on lower, below average volume. Tapping at the 10 day EMA on the lows and then recovering. Setting up nicely for the break higher toward a new 7 year high.
Volume: 2.277M Avg Volume: 4.037M
BUY POINT: $15.29 Volume=5M Target=$18.45 Stop=$14.65
POSITION: HUT GC - July $15c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/hlth.html
Play Date: 03/28/2007
IPSU (Imperial Sugar Company--$32.74; -0.64; no options): Refined sugar
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ipsu.html
EARNINGS: Late April
STATUS: Ascending triangle. Back to the 10 day EMA on the close but on continued low, below average volume. Putting together a pretty nice handle here at near support, setting up a breakout. Money flow continues to move higher as IPSU sets up the next move. To recap: IPSU is working in a 12 month triangle, making higher lows as it builds toward a breakout. Just made a higher low at the 50 day EMA (30.60) and bolted upside Wednesday on strong volume. Part of the food problems relating to ethanol and other energy initiatives. We are apparently willing to trade fuel inflation for food inflation, but will wind up with both as we burn 'switch grass' and other 'renewable' sources. Of course we will have to plant the entire country in these alternative fuel sources. Whatever the case, these food ingredients are jumping on the new mandated demand. What a business to be in when the government says we all have to buy into its planning for us. All that means is that IPSU has room to run.
Volume: 180.353K Avg Volume: 290.429K
BUY POINT: $33.57 Volume=325K Target=$39.95 Stop=$31.95
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ipsu.html
Play Date: 03/27/2007
ITRI (Itron--$65.14; +0.14; optionable): Solid state meters, automated meter reading, etc. for energy and water providers
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/itri.html
EARNINGS: 4-23-07
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. The range is getting very tight as ITRI settles back tot eh 10 day EMA and volume edges up to average as it does. Money flow continues to rise as price works laterally, a bullish indication. Ready to make the break. To recap: A nice 5 week base has formed, acting as the handle to an 11 month double bottom with handle. A double bottom with handle on double bottom with handle pattern. In any event, a very nice pullback the past four sessions has formed the handle to the small base, setting up the breakout for a run to a new all-time high. Excellent pattern.
Volume: 455.277K Avg Volume: 466.152K
BUY POINT: $66.11 Volume=709K Target=$75.95 Stop=$64.28
POSITION: IUP HM - Aug. $65c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/itri.html
Play Date: 03/31/2007
RVSN (Radvision--$23.14; -0.24; optionable): Videoconferencing and video telephony
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rvsn.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-8-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Doji at the February and early March highs that RVSN surged past on the breakout move to end March. Excellent low volume pullback has RVSN ready to move back up and resume the breakout move. To recap: Big breakout in February (earnings) from a large 12 month cup with handle. It moved laterally for 5 weeks and with a couple of big intraday reaches lower to test 20 it shook us out. It held the move, however, and gapped higher two Thursdays back on very strong trade, running to a 7 year high. It spent the latter part of last week testing back to the 10 and 18 day EMA on lower volume. This test is the initial test of the break higher, setting up the continued run. We pick up positions as it breaks higher on stronger volume from this test. Excellent action and money flow is surging higher ahead of price.
Volume: 127.808K Avg Volume: 211.676K
BUY POINT: $24.35 Volume=300K Target=$28.45 Stop=$23.04
POSITION: RJU IE - Sept. $25c (50 delta) or RJU FX - June $22.50c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/rvsn.html
Downside:
Play Date: 04/02/2007
SOV (Sovereign Bancorp--$25.02; -0.14; optionable): Savings and Loans
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sov.html
EARNINGS: 4-18-07
STATUS: Put. After the Monday break below the 90 day MA, SOV bounced on lower volume to test. It faded from the high; looks like the kiss goodbye. Wednesday it made on last try, giving the 50 and 90 day MA a smack on the cheek. It then turned lower. Volume was low, but it looks ready to tumble. To recap: Made a lower high in late March after a low volume peak in February. That lower high didn't stick. SOV dove below the 90 day MA (25.32) Monday on the MBT news on rising trade. SOV had a gap higher in early October, and that has not been filled. That is interesting. Looking to move in as SOV continues lower. A move to the target lands a 46%ish gain.
Volume: 1.827M Avg Volume: 2.976M
BUY POINT: $24.65 Volume=3M Target=$23.40 Stop=$25.04
POSITION: SOV QE - May $25p (-48 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/sov.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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trade stock
stock recommendation
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