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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: ACTG; ALJ; CLB; CMC; GLW; RIMM; ASCA
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 04/06/2007
ADM (Archer Daniels Midland--$37.02; +0.20; optionable): Corn and corn by-products
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/adm.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-1-07
STATUS: Test 200 day SMA. ADM is in the process of building off a the bottom of a 12 month base that hit the low in January. It broke out of a short double bottom with handle in late March as part of the build off the bottom, clearing the 200 day SMA (36.76) on the move. It then spent the past week working laterally in a narrow range above that support level. Money flow is surging higher as the stock moves laterally, a good indication of a further break higher to come. ADM is a corn play, part of the ethanol mandate from the government. Nice low volume as it works laterally. Looking for volume to jump back up as it continues the break higher.
Volume: 4.746M Avg Volume: 8.424M
BUY POINT: $37.55 Volume=12M Target=$44.75 Stop=$36.54
POSITION: ADM IG - Sept. $35c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/adm.html
Play Date: 04/05/2007
BEAV (BE Aerospace--$32.44; +0.05; optionable): Cabin interiors for commercial and business jets
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/beav.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-5-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Taking another look at BEAV as it has set up better. BEAV is testing the 18 day EMA (32.02) following the January breakout from a 9 month double bottom with handle base. It moved higher, then tested the 50 day EMA in all of the market selling. It held there and formed a double bottom, breaking sharply higher mid-March. It has since tested back to the 18 day EMA in a narrow range and on lower volume. It ended the week showing a pair of tight dojis above the 18 day EMA on the candlestick chart after a low volume shakeout a week back. It now looks ripe to make the break higher this week.
Volume: 473.202K Avg Volume: 1.062M
BUY POINT: $32.88 Volume=1.2M Target=$37.95 Stop=$31.89
POSITION: BQV GF - July $30c (72 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/beav.html
Play Date: 04/06/2007
CHTT (Chattem--$58.60; -0.43; optionable): Over the counter healthcare products, dietary supplements, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/chtt.html
EARNINGS: Announced 3-22-07
STATUS: Test breakout. Excellent break higher on earnings sent CHTT over the January highs. It has come back to test that move the past two weeks, holding near support at the 10 day EMA and the January highs (58.14). Volume jumped back up Wednesday and Thursday, and it looks as if CHTT is going to start the coming week with a new run.
Volume: 679.329K Avg Volume: 380.705K
BUY POINT: $59.48 Volume=550K Target=$69.95 Stop=$57.32
POSITION: HQT IL - Sept. $60c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/chtt.html
Play Date: 04/06/2007
CROX (Crocs, Inc.--$51.76; +1.78; optionable): Footwear
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/crox.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-20-07
STATUS: Cup. CROX has started to gallop again. Strong run in 2006 and up to early February in 2007 finally needed a rest. It has come back to form an 8 week cup, just now coming off of the lows with a strong volume and price gain Wednesday and Thursday. Looking to move in with some positions as it continues higher and then see if it forms a handle, that low volume lateral to slightly lower move that sets up the next serious breakout and run. When it makes that next break we move in again with more positions.
Volume: 3.093M Avg Volume: 2M
BUY POINT: $52.05 Volume=2M Target=$59.95 Stop=$49.57
POSITION: CQJ FJ - June $50c (65 delta) or CQJ IK - Sept. $55c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/crox.html
Play Date: 04/06/2007
HMSY (HMS Holdings--$22.04; +0.45; optionable): Cost containment, benefits coordination for government healthcare programs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hmsy.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-28-07
STATUS: Cup w/handle. HMSY has been a good performer for us, and we just took some gain off the table a week ago as it reached the February high on low volume and then started to fade. It held the 18 day EMA (21.59), however, and Thursday started to jump back up. There was no volume, indeed the lowest volume of the week, but the pattern and action looks good. Have to see some volume pick up as it makes the move to show the buyers are back in and have the strength to sustain a run.
Volume: 104.044K Avg Volume: 289.332K
BUY POINT: $22.25 Volume=325K Target=$26.45 Stop=$21.32
POSITION: QHT IX - Sept. $22.50c (51 delta, no OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/hmsy.html
Play Date: 04/05/2006
UCTT (Ultra Clean Holdings--$18.08; +0.54; optionable): Semiconductor subsystems for the chip capital equipment sector
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/uctt.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-23-07
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. UCTT broke out in late February from a double bottom base, surging on earnings. It tested and started the trend higher up near support at the 18 day EMA (17.53). It is making its second test of this near support, and Thursday it jumped up off of that level Thursday. Volume was up but still below average. Looking for some more trade as it makes the move. Stocks will make 4 to 5 bounces up off the 18 day EMA after a breakout, and that leaves plenty of room upside for UCTT to run and make us some good money. A solid leader in earnings growth and a nice pattern to go with it.
Volume: 432.645K Avg Volume: 555.013K
BUY POINT: $18.38 Volume=650K Target=$21.95 Stop=$17.09
POSITION: QFU IW - Sept. $17.50c (57 delta, 31 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/uctt.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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