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us stock market, trend trading stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: ACTG; ALJ; CMC; GLW; SIGA; ASCA
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 04/06/2007
ADM (Archer Daniels Midland--$37.02; +0.20; optionable): Corn and corn by-products
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/adm.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-1-07
STATUS: Test 200 day SMA. ADM is in the process of building off a the bottom of a 12 month base that hit the low in January. It broke out of a short double bottom with handle in late March as part of the build off the bottom, clearing the 200 day SMA (36.76) on the move. It then spent the past week working laterally in a narrow range above that support level. Money flow is surging higher as the stock moves laterally, a good indication of a further break higher to come. ADM is a corn play, part of the ethanol mandate from the government. Nice low volume as it works laterally. Looking for volume to jump back up as it continues the break higher.
Volume: 4.746M Avg Volume: 8.424M
BUY POINT: $37.55 Volume=12M Target=$44.75 Stop=$36.54
POSITION: ADM IG - Sept. $35c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cD/adm.html
Play Date: 04/06/2007
CROX (Crocs, Inc.--$51.76; +1.78; optionable): Footwear
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/crox.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-20-07
STATUS: Cup. CROX has started to gallop again. Strong run in 2006 and up to early February in 2007 finally needed a rest. It has come back to form an 8 week cup, just now coming off of the lows with a strong volume and price gain Wednesday and Thursday. Looking to move in with some positions as it continues higher and then see if it forms a handle, that low volume lateral to slightly lower move that sets up the next serious breakout and run. When it makes that next break we move in again with more positions.
Volume: 3.093M Avg Volume: 2M
BUY POINT: $52.05 Volume=2M Target=$59.95 Stop=$49.57
POSITION: CQJ FJ - June $50c (65 delta) or CQJ IK - Sept. $55c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/crox.html
Play Date: 04/06/2007
HMSY (HMS Holdings--$22.04; +0.45; optionable): Cost containment, benefits coordination for government healthcare programs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hmsy.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-28-07
STATUS: Cup w/handle. HMSY has been a good performer for us, and we just took some gain off the table a week ago as it reached the February high on low volume and then started to fade. It held the 18 day EMA (21.59), however, and Thursday started to jump back up. There was no volume, indeed the lowest volume of the week, but the pattern and action looks good. Have to see some volume pick up as it makes the move to show the buyers are back in and have the strength to sustain a run.
Volume: 104.044K Avg Volume: 289.332K
BUY POINT: $22.25 Volume=325K Target=$26.45 Stop=$21.32
POSITION: QHT IX - Sept. $22.50c (51 delta, no OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/hmsy.html
Play Date: 04/06/2007
NTY (NBTY, Inc.--$52.29; -1.02; optionable): Nutritional supplements
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nty.html
EARNINGS: Late April
STATUS: Cup w/handle. NTY gapped higher to end March on news of a possible buyout in the works. It could not do anything with the move, instead working laterally as the 10 day EMA (51.83) rose to catch up to it. After a good run from November to early February it needed this break, and it rested in style, using the 50 day EMA as support as it came back in early March to fill the late January gap higher on strong earnings. NTY is a top stock in the entire market in terms of earnings growth rates. After this rest we are looking for NTY to continues its move higher. Thursday it announced preliminary results for the quarter ending 3-31, and it was down for the session. It did not sell off, instead just setting up a bit better for the next break higher.
Volume: 1.394M Avg Volume: 1.262M
BUY POINT: $54.11 Volume=1.9M Target=$64.95 Stop=$51.44
POSITION: NTY FJ - June $50c (63 delta) or NTY IK - Sept. $55c (51 delta, 83 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/nty.html
Play Date: 04/06/2007
PLLL (Parallel Petroleum--$23.45; +0.02; optionable): Independent oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/plll.html
EARNINGS: Reported 2-28-07
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. PLLL is working on the handle to an 8 month base, working laterally the past three weeks, waiting on the 10 day EMA (23.05) to catch up with it. It has done so, and volume was up and above average Tuesday and Thursday after a lull in the second half of March. Money flow is firming up. Like the volume rise and looking for that to continue as PLLL shows a breakaway move.
Volume: 1.154M Avg Volume: 694.397K
BUY POINT: $23.79 Volume=900K Target=$28.55 Stop=$22.48
POSITION: QPF GX - July $22.50c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/plll.html
Play Date: 04/05/2006
UCTT (Ultra Clean Holdings--$18.08; +0.54; optionable): Semiconductor subsystems for the chip capital equipment sector
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/uctt.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-23-07
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. UCTT broke out in late February from a double bottom base, surging on earnings. It tested and started the trend higher up near support at the 18 day EMA (17.53). It is making its second test of this near support, and Thursday it jumped up off of that level Thursday. Volume was up but still below average. Looking for some more trade as it makes the move. Stocks will make 4 to 5 bounces up off the 18 day EMA after a breakout, and that leaves plenty of room upside for UCTT to run and make us some good money. A solid leader in earnings growth and a nice pattern to go with it.
Volume: 432.645K Avg Volume: 555.013K
BUY POINT: $18.38 Volume=650K Target=$21.95 Stop=$17.09
POSITION: QFU IW - Sept. $17.50c (57 delta, 31 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/uctt.html
SUBSCRIBER PORTFOLIO: These are stocks subscribers suggest by vote that we put in a portfolio to track and move into the stocks if they perform well. If you have any suggestions for additions or deletions, email us. We don't cover them all each report, just when something interesting is developing.
AAPL, AKAM, CELG, DRIV, GME, GOOG, ISE, MA, MRVL, NVDA, WEBX
Need a replacement for WEBX as it is getting bought out. MRVL has been dead for some time.
AAPL: Continues to form the handle to its 12 week cup with handle base.
CELG: Surging on solid traded.
DRIV: This may be the week for DRIV as it shows a doji above the 90 and 50 day MA.
GOOG: After a strong surge Tuesday, GOOG finished the week holding that gain in a very tight trading range as volume fell off the table. Just below the 90 day MA (471.62) that stopped it dead in its tracks Tuesday. Still a solid set to break higher as it continues to work on its base.
ISE, MA: Not dead yet as they both continue to hold the handle and try to initiate bounces.
NVDA: Blasted higher to the 50 day MA on strong volume. Now that is the way to end a 4 month downtrend.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
trend trading stock
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