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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: CLB; FLIR; GLW; RIMM; SIGA; ASCA
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 04/05/2007
ACTG (Acacia Research--$16.41; +0.66; no options): Development, acquisition, licensing of patented technologies. Assists smaller companies, inventors with patents
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/actg.html
EARNINGS: Reported 2-21-07
STATUS: Breakout test. ACTG broke out from a 16 week cup with handle base in mid-March, rallying on some solid trade. It made it near 16.50 on the initial run and then tested back the past two weeks, holding at the 18 day EMA (15.55) on the test. Thursday it tapped the 18 day on the low and then surged higher on very strong volume. Excellent action and ready to move in as ACTG continues this break higher.
Volume: 557.851K Avg Volume: 209.168K
BUY POINT: $16.57 Volume=225K Target=$19.95 Stop=$15.48
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/actg.html
Play Date: 04/06/2007
ADM (Archer Daniels Midland--$37.02; +0.20; optionable): Corn and corn by-products
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/adm.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-1-07
STATUS: Test 200 day SMA. ADM is in the process of building off a the bottom of a 12 month base that hit the low in January. It broke out of a short double bottom with handle in late March as part of the build off the bottom, clearing the 200 day SMA (36.76) on the move. It then spent the past week working laterally in a narrow range above that support level. Money flow is surging higher as the stock moves laterally, a good indication of a further break higher to come. ADM is a corn play, part of the ethanol mandate from the government. Nice low volume as it works laterally. Looking for volume to jump back up as it continues the break higher.
Volume: 4.746M Avg Volume: 8.424M
BUY POINT: $37.55 Volume=12M Target=$44.75 Stop=$36.54
POSITION: ADM IG - Sept. $35c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/adm.html
Play Date: 04/05/2007
BEAV (BE Aerospace--$32.44; +0.05; optionable): Cabin interiors for commercial and business jets
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/beav.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-5-07
STATUS: Breakout test. Taking another look at BEAV as it has set up better. BEAV is testing the 18 day EMA (32.02) following the January breakout from a 9 month double bottom with handle base. It moved higher, then tested the 50 day EMA in all of the market selling. It held there and formed a double bottom, breaking sharply higher mid-March. It has since tested back to the 18 day EMA in a narrow range and on lower volume. It ended the week showing a pair of tight dojis above the 18 day EMA on the candlestick chart after a low volume shakeout a week back. It now looks ripe to make the break higher this week.
Volume: 473.202K Avg Volume: 1.062M
BUY POINT: $32.88 Volume=1.2M Target=$37.95 Stop=$31.89
POSITION: BQV GF - July $30c (72 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/beav.html
Play Date: 04/06/2007
CROX (Crocs, Inc.--$51.76; +1.78; optionable): Footwear
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/crox.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-20-07
STATUS: Cup. CROX has started to gallop again. Strong run in 2006 and up to early February in 2007 finally needed a rest. It has come back to form an 8 week cup, just now coming off of the lows with a strong volume and price gain Wednesday and Thursday. Looking to move in with some positions as it continues higher and then see if it forms a handle, that low volume lateral to slightly lower move that sets up the next serious breakout and run. When it makes that next break we move in again with more positions.
Volume: 3.093M Avg Volume: 2M
BUY POINT: $52.05 Volume=2M Target=$59.95 Stop=$49.57
POSITION: CQJ FJ - June $50c (65 delta) or CQJ IK - Sept. $55c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/crox.html
Play Date: 04/06/2007
HMSY (HMS Holdings--$22.04; +0.45; optionable): Cost containment, benefits coordination for government healthcare programs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hmsy.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-28-07
STATUS: Cup w/handle. HMSY has been a good performer for us, and we just took some gain off the table a week ago as it reached the February high on low volume and then started to fade. It held the 18 day EMA (21.59), however, and Thursday started to jump back up. There was no volume, indeed the lowest volume of the week, but the pattern and action looks good. Have to see some volume pick up as it makes the move to show the buyers are back in and have the strength to sustain a run.
Volume: 104.044K Avg Volume: 289.332K
BUY POINT: $22.25 Volume=325K Target=$26.45 Stop=$21.32
POSITION: QHT IX - Sept. $22.50c (51 delta, no OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/hmsy.html
Play Date: 04/05/2006
UCTT (Ultra Clean Holdings--$18.08; +0.54; optionable): Semiconductor subsystems for the chip capital equipment sector
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/uctt.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-23-07
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. UCTT broke out in late February from a double bottom base, surging on earnings. It tested and started the trend higher up near support at the 18 day EMA (17.53). It is making its second test of this near support, and Thursday it jumped up off of that level Thursday. Volume was up but still below average. Looking for some more trade as it makes the move. Stocks will make 4 to 5 bounces up off the 18 day EMA after a breakout, and that leaves plenty of room upside for UCTT to run and make us some good money. A solid leader in earnings growth and a nice pattern to go with it.
Volume: 432.645K Avg Volume: 555.013K
BUY POINT: $18.38 Volume=650K Target=$21.95 Stop=$17.09
POSITION: QFU IW - Sept. $17.50c (57 delta, 31 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/uctt.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Play Date: 04/04/2007
AGU (Agrium--$39.42; +0.54; optionable): Agricultural chemicals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/agu.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-1-07
STATUS: Ascending base. Surged higher Thursday on a shot of strong volume, but could not hold the move into the close, fading back just below the March peaks. Still set up well to make the move. To recap: Nice 6 week pattern has formed making higher lows up the 50 day EMA (37), setting up AGU's next break higher. Broke out in October and rallied hard to 42 in late February, the peak on that run. It needed a consolidation and this base is doing an excellent job. Another part in the agriculture surge the feds have orchestrated with the ethanol requirements.
Volume: 1.597M Avg Volume: 1.244M
BUY POINT: $39.65 Volume=1.9M Target=$46.95 Stop=$38.08
POSITION: AGU GH - July $40c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/agu.html
Play Date: 03/31/2007
HLTH (Webmd Corp.--$15.53; +0.29; optionable): Healthcare information services.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hlth.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-22-07
STATUS: Cup with handle. Held off Friday, but volume jumped late as HLTH continued higher. Looking to take some positions as it continues and then see if there is a handle formed to break it higher as well. To recap: After jumping off the bottom of its 6 week base in late March, HLTH is working laterally on lower, below average volume. Tapping at the 10 day EMA on the lows and then recovering. Setting up nicely for the break higher toward a new 7 year high.
Volume: 3.243M Avg Volume: 3.925M
BUY POINT: $15.29 Volume=5M Target=$18.45 Stop=$14.65
POSITION: HUT GC - July $15c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/hlth.html
Play Date: 03/28/2007
IPSU (Imperial Sugar Company--$32.83; +0.09; no options): Refined sugar
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ipsu.html
EARNINGS: Late April
STATUS: Ascending triangle. Still holding at the 10 day EMA (32.61) on low volume with its nice handle formation. This has set it up for the break higher, and just waiting on the price and volume to hook up and send it surging. To recap: IPSU is working in a 12 month triangle, making higher lows as it builds toward a breakout. Just made a higher low at the 50 day EMA (30.60) and bolted upside Wednesday on strong volume. Part of the food problems relating to ethanol and other energy initiatives. We are apparently willing to trade fuel inflation for food inflation, but will wind up with both as we burn 'switch grass' and other 'renewable' sources. Of course we will have to plant the entire country in these alternative fuel sources. Whatever the case, these food ingredients are jumping on the new mandated demand. What a business to be in when the government says we all have to buy into its planning for us. All that means is that IPSU has room to run.
Volume: 155.12K Avg Volume: 277.364K
BUY POINT: $33.57 Volume=325K Target=$39.95 Stop=$31.95
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ipsu.html
Play Date: 03/24/2007
MS (Morgan Stanley--$80.30; +0.49; optionable): Investment brokerage
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/ms.html
EARNINGS: Announced 3-21-07
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Holding up at the 90 day MA (79.63) on the lows as MS sets a higher low after bouncing Tuesday off the 50 day EMA on rising volume. Setting up very nicely for the next break higher. An interesting pattern as it gapped lower to end February, then gapped higher mid-March from the same spot. That is an island reversal gap and bodes well for further upside. This handle is icing on the cake.
Volume: 4.052M Avg Volume: 6.25M
BUY POINT: $80.88 Volume=8.9M Target=$94.95 Stop=$78.21
POSITION: MS GP - July $80c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ms.html
Play Date: 04/02/2007
SPTN (Spartan Stores--$27.12; +0.59; optionable): Regional grocery
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sptn.html
EARNINGS: Late April
STATUS: Breakout test. SPTN gapped out of a 6 week double bottom at the 90 day MA (23.05) the last week of March on news it was moving to the SP600 index. After that surge it has 'settled' back to the 10 day EMA (26.39), basically holding the gap. Thursday it gapped modestly lower to the 10 day EMA and then reversed to post a nice gain. Love to see a stock refuse to give up its gains. Money flow is moving higher and it looks as if SPTN is ready to follow it higher this week.
Volume: 188.736K Avg Volume: 228.179K
BUY POINT: $27.55 Volume=250K Target=$32.95 Stop=$25.68
POSITION: QGH GE - July $25c (69 delta, 73 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/sptn.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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