|
|
trade stock, top stock pick
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Good movers: CLB; CMC; FLIR; RIMM; ASCA
New Plays:
Upside:
New Post-Split Plays:
Play Date: 04/05/2007
GES (Guess? Inc.--$41.40; -0.40; optionable): Apparel stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/ges.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-14-07
STATUS: Ascending base. GES continues to set up nicely so we have put it back on the report, It ended the week testing back, not rising with the market, but it held the 18 day EMA (41.28) on the close. This looks to be making a higher low in its 7 week pattern consolidating the mid-February gap higher on strong earnings results. Just going to be patient and let it finish setting up and show us the breakout move. One of the top leaders in its sector.
Volume: 282.5K Avg Volume: 1.445M
BUY POINT: $42.60 Volume=2.4M Target=$48.95 Stop=$41.05
POSITION: GES FH - June $40c (72 delta) or GES IV - Sept. $42.50c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ges.html
New Leader Plays:
Play Date: 04/06/2007
CROX (Crocs, Inc.--$51.76; +1.78; optionable): Footwear
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/crox.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-20-07
STATUS: Cup. CROX has started to gallop again. Strong run in 2006 and up to early February in 2007 finally needed a rest. It has come back to form an 8 week cup, just now coming off of the lows with a strong volume and price gain Wednesday and Thursday. Looking to move in with some positions as it continues higher and then see if it forms a handle, that low volume lateral to slightly lower move that sets up the next serious breakout and run. When it makes that next break we move in again with more positions.
Volume: 3.093M Avg Volume: 2M
BUY POINT: $52.05 Volume=2M Target=$59.95 Stop=$49.57
POSITION: CQJ FJ - June $50c (65 delta) or CQJ IK - Sept. $55c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/crox.html
Play Date: 04/06/2007
HMSY (HMS Holdings--$22.04; +0.45; optionable): Cost containment, benefits coordination for government healthcare programs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hmsy.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-28-07
STATUS: Cup w/handle. HMSY has been a good performer for us, and we just took some gain off the table a week ago as it reached the February high on low volume and then started to fade. It held the 18 day EMA (21.59), however, and Thursday started to jump back up. There was no volume, indeed the lowest volume of the week, but the pattern and action looks good. Have to see some volume pick up as it makes the move to show the buyers are back in and have the strength to sustain a run.
Volume: 104.044K Avg Volume: 289.332K
BUY POINT: $22.25 Volume=325K Target=$26.45 Stop=$21.32
POSITION: QHT IX - Sept. $22.50c (51 delta, no OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/hmsy.html
Play Date: 04/05/2006
UCTT (Ultra Clean Holdings--$18.08; +0.54; optionable): Semiconductor subsystems for the chip capital equipment sector
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/uctt.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-23-07
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. UCTT broke out in late February from a double bottom base, surging on earnings. It tested and started the trend higher up near support at the 18 day EMA (17.53). It is making its second test of this near support, and Thursday it jumped up off of that level Thursday. Volume was up but still below average. Looking for some more trade as it makes the move. Stocks will make 4 to 5 bounces up off the 18 day EMA after a breakout, and that leaves plenty of room upside for UCTT to run and make us some good money. A solid leader in earnings growth and a nice pattern to go with it.
Volume: 432.645K Avg Volume: 555.013K
BUY POINT: $18.38 Volume=650K Target=$21.95 Stop=$17.09
POSITION: QFU IW - Sept. $17.50c (57 delta, 31 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/uctt.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We consider many stocks for pre-announcement plays every week. We get information regarding upcoming announcements and other data that leads us to conclude a split announcement is coming. Even then, however, we have to be discriminating. We have to see a strong technical pattern as well, and thus we reject many potential candidates based on a weak technical position. Some we consider have announced, but have not fared well given their technical patterns were weak to begin with.
The key today is to find stocks in strong patterns or that are ready to rebound off support. A split announcement will amplify the move higher in these cases as we enjoy moves from strong leaders in position to run higher. We won't chase a stock in a poor technical position even if we know it is going to split; it simply won't do us any good, i.e. it won't make us any money to the upside. We could list all stocks we think are going to split, but again, that won't make us any money unless we are in an office pool as to what stocks will or won't announce a stock split.
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern and of course the strong earnings growth that put it in the pattern in the first place.
AAPL: Forecast 4-18-07
BA: Tentatively set for late April
CAH: Tentatively forecast for 4-26-07
CMTL: Forecast in early June
CNMD: Forecast early May
CTRP: Forecast early May.
DLTR: Forecast late May
EXC: Researching date
GIL: Forecast early May
ISRG: Tentatively set 4-19-07
JCI: Researching the date. Announced earnings late January.
MA: Tentatively set for early May.
MCHP: Tentatively set for 4-26-07
MM: No split in late March. Researching the next date as we enjoy the good move.
MRO: Forecast early May.
NOV: Researching date. Announced earnings 2-6-07
POT: Tentatively set for third week in April
RL: Researching date. Announced earnings 2-7-07.
RIMM: Tentatively set 4-4-07. No split announced this past week but enjoying a nice run.
SSYS: Forecast early May
THQI: Researching date
VMC: Forecast late April
VSEA: Tentatively set for early May.
NEW PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 04/06/2007
ADM (Archer Daniels Midland--$37.02; +0.20; optionable): Corn and corn by-products
BACKGROUND: Last split 21:20 8-30-01. ADM was a yearly splitter in the 90's though at 21:20 it was not an earth mover.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/adm.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-1-07
STATUS: Test 200 day SMA. ADM is in the process of building off a the bottom of a 12 month base that hit the low in January. It broke out of a short double bottom with handle in late March as part of the build off the bottom, clearing the 200 day SMA (36.76) on the move. It then spent the past week working laterally in a narrow range above that support level. Money flow is surging higher as the stock moves laterally, a good indication of a further break higher to come. ADM is a corn play, part of the ethanol mandate from the government. Nice low volume as it works laterally. Looking for volume to jump back up as it continues the break higher.
Volume: 4.746M Avg Volume: 8.424M
BUY POINT: $37.55 Volume=12M Target=$44.75 Stop=$36.54
POSITION: ADM IG - Sept. $35c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/adm.html
Play Date: 04/06/2007
CHTT (Chattem--$58.60; -0.43; optionable): Over the counter healthcare products, dietary supplements, etc.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 10-30-02 at $44.60.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/chtt.html
EARNINGS: Announced 3-22-07
STATUS: Test breakout. Excellent break higher on earnings sent CHTT over the January highs. It has come back to test that move the past two weeks, holding near support at the 10 day EMA and the January highs (58.14). Volume jumped back up Wednesday and Thursday, and it looks as if CHTT is going to start the coming week with a new run.
Volume: 679.329K Avg Volume: 380.705K
BUY POINT: $59.48 Volume=550K Target=$69.95 Stop=$57.32
POSITION: HQT IL - Sept. $60c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/chtt.html
CONTINUING PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 03/24/2007
MS (Morgan Stanley--$80.30; +0.49; optionable): Investment brokerage
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/ms.html
EARNINGS: Announced 3-21-07
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Holding up at the 90 day MA (79.63) on the lows as MS sets a higher low after bouncing Tuesday off the 50 day EMA on rising volume. Setting up very nicely for the next break higher. An interesting pattern as it gapped lower to end February, then gapped higher mid-March from the same spot. That is an island reversal gap and bodes well for further upside. This handle is icing on the cake.
Volume: 4.052M Avg Volume: 6.25M
BUY POINT: $80.88 Volume=8.9M Target=$94.95 Stop=$78.21
POSITION: MS GP - July $80c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ms.html
Play Date: 04/04/2007
NIHD (NII Hldgs--$77.69; -0.11; optionable): Telecom wireless communications
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nihd.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-27-07
STATUS: Test breakout. Faded back Wednesday and Thursday on low volume, giving up some ground but not much as it holds on, refusing to give up the pair of nice gains from Monday and Tuesday that took it out of its short base. Nice stingy test and looking for a rebound this week. To recap: NIHD jumped out of its 8 week base to start the month, rising on strong volume. This small base consolidated the January breakout from a larger 9 month pattern. Strong volume on the breakout, pausing Wednesday on lower, below average volume. May come back to test further, back toward the 10 day EMA (75.98) that is moving up to meet it, before taking off again. Quite strong, however, so want to be ready to move in if it continues higher from here.
Volume: 710.355K Avg Volume: 1.776M
BUY POINT: $78.48 Volume=2M Target=$89.95 Stop=$75.45
POSITION: QHQ IP - Sept. $80c (53 delta, 83 OI) or QHQ FO - June $75c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/nihd.html
Play Date: 04/03/2007
NYX (NYSE Group--$96.74; -0.81; optionable):
BACKGROUND: No splits in NYX' history
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nyx.html
EARNINGS: 4-26-07
STATUS: Cup w/handle breakout. The merger is completed, and NYX ended the week pulling back to test after that strong Tuesday surge. Holding above the 90 day MA (94.95) and looking for that to hold and send it higher once more. To recap: Surging volume as NYX broke out from the handle to its 12 week base as Euronext and NYSE close their deal on Wednesday. Whatever the reason, the move is strong and we are ready to move in as it continues its move.
Volume: 9.501M Avg Volume: 6.789M
BUY POINT: Aggressive: $97.75 (orig. $101.39) Volume=9.5M Target=$113.95 Stop=$94.95
POSITION: NYX FT - June $100c (57 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/nyx.html
Play Date: 03/10/2007
VMC (Vulcan Materials--$118.46; +0.44; optionable): Building materials. Tentatively forecast for late April
BACKGROUND: Last split 3:1 in March 1999 at $140.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vmc.html
EARNINGS: Late April
STATUS: Ascending base. Making a higher low at the 10 day EMA (117.63) to end the week, working laterally on low volume after bouncing higher Tuesday on rising trade. Nice consolidation continues and this higher low is ready to send VMC higher. To recap: VMC's consolidation of the strong January through February breakout run has morphed into a 5 week base, working along the 18 day EMA, refusing to give back any of the gains. Love a stingy stocks. Tuesday volume rallied as VMC jumped off the bottom of the last higher low. Trade could be better, but looks solid for the break higher.
Volume: 372.455K Avg Volume: 1.036M
BUY POINT: $120.21 Volume=1.4M Target=$137.38 Stop=$116.28
POSITION: VMC ED - May $120c (60 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/vmc.html
CONTINUING PRE-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 04/03/2007
CMI (Cummins--$147.70; +2.45; optionable): Engines. Splits 2:1 on 4-10-07
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cmi.html
EARNINGS: Late April
STATUS: Test breakout. Started higher off the 10 day EMA (145.54) Thursday though volume remained low and well below average. If it can continue higher to start the week we will look at moving in with some positions and riding it through the split. To recap: CMI broke sharply higher in March, clearing a 4 week double bottom the third week of that month as it continued a strong move that took it 152 on the high. It pulled back to test that move to end the month and then started higher this week, moving off the 18 day EMA. Volume is not tracking with it, but CMI can run without a lot of trade as the last move showed. Want to see a bit more trade, however, as it moves higher to show it has some staying power.
Volume: 540.5K Avg Volume: 1.014M
BUY POINT: From the Thursday close (orig. $147.35) Volume=1.1M Target=$157.00 Stop=$143.31
POSITION: CMI FI - June $145c (59 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cmi.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 04/02/2007
ANST (Ansoft--$32.10; +0.20; optionable): Electronic design automation
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/anst.html
EARNINGS: 2-13-07
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Still very quiet volume as ANST works laterally over the 10 day EMA (31.79) the past two weeks. A rather extended handle to the base is forming, but it is working well to set up the next move and money flow is moving higher ahead of price. Just waiting for some volume as it breaks higher. To recap: Excellent handle forming the past week, coming back to the 18 day EMA (31.56) and holding on low volume as it completes its 6 week base. Nice technical pattern holding the 50 day EMA (30.56) on the two legs. Set to break to a new all-time high. Excellent fundamentals to go with its pattern.
Volume: 55.199K Avg Volume: 169.725K
BUY POINT: $32.48 Volume=270K Target=$37.48 Stop=$30.87
POSITION: UZD GF - July $30c (66 delta, 61 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/anst.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
|
trade stock
top stock pick
|
